A New Agenda for Security and Strategy

A New Agenda for Security and Strategy CH 16 Strategy in The Contemporary World

Introduction • High Politics – War, Peace, Nuclear Deterrence and Crisis Control, Arms Control, and Alliance Politics

Introduction • Low Politics- The Environment, The management of Scarce Resources, and Efforts to Control Population Issues

Which is More Important? • During the Cold War high politics dominated the National Security Agenda! Low politics not considered a threat to national security!

• Despite Major World Issues – Nuclear Fallout -> Partial Ban Treaty 1963 – Oil Shocks of the 1970’s -> Conservation is important!

1980’s Brought Change • Why Did This Happen? – Realist suggest with the evaporation of the major concerns with the Cold War, Lesser Issues “appear” to become more important – Neo-Institutionalist would argue the growth of Structures like IGO’s and INGO’s help push global issues like deforestation, AIDS, and the ozone depletion onto security agenda’s – Can any other theories be used to explain this change?

The 21st Century • Saw a return of high politics consuming the majority of the security agenda. • This was due to terrorist attacks in New York, London, Madrid, and Bali. • Some once considered low politics remained on the Security Agenda, Such as Globalization

The Need for a Conceptual Framework • Why should low politics be considered a threat to national security? – The International Peace Research Institution have demonstrated a link between resource scarcity and violence – Rapid population growth or depopulation growth can create resource dilemmas. – Damage to the environment can kill! • Ex: The destruction to the Ozone layer can cause cancer, blindness, and even death.

The Use of Military for Low Politics Creates Big Problems • Already used in cases of natural disasters, but labeling as security issues would come with cost. • Resources are diverted from preparing for war to humanitarian projects. • The presence of military can create more problems then it helps. • How can the military help with AID’s or reduce green house admissions?

Low Politics… That Make the Agenda!

Population Issues • Most of the population growth will occur in the poorest countries – They are already strained to the limits for food, housing , and education.

• Most of the population growth elsewhere in the world is taking place in urban areas. – Resulting in “Mega Cities”

• Most of the additional population will be young. – This could create an inability to provide basic services to the populations

More Issues With Population – Population decreases in the west will create difficulties in filling the armed forces – Health care and pension plan demands in the aging population will make it difficult for industrialized nations to afford large defense budgets. – In the west there is a rising aversion to causalities shaping national strategies • As birth rates decline people everywhere will be less likely to see their only child sacrificed in a military adventure

Commons Issues A Little of Something Never Hurt Anyone • The Tragedy of The Commons • Ex: Salmon Fishing

• Deforestations, Water Depletion, and Carbon Dioxide Levels • Tragedy of the Commons occurs because of international failure to protect to environment or its resources • These issues can shape war strategy! – Ex: Concerns for disrupting a tight oil market has slowed the response against the Iranian efforts to produce nuclear weapons

Direct Environmental Damage!

Disease • The major concern is for a long overdue outbreak of a deadly strain of influenza • Resistant Strains • Dormant Disease that may arise due to deforestation.

The Seven Diseases That Remain a Major Concern • (HIV/AIDS) – Pandemic proportions are like to spread into India, Russia, and China. • Tuberculosis * • Malaria* • Hepatitis B and C • Influenza * – H5N1 (Avian Flu)

• Diarrhoeal Diseases (results of contaminated food and water) • Measles

Five Reasons for the Increase Threat of Infectious Diseases • 1. Displaces refugees living in primitive conditions breed and spread diseases • 2. Unprotected sex and intravenous drug use • 3. Modern technology • 4. Land use practices –Destroying –Reforestation (Lyme Disease) • 5. International Travel (2 million people a day)

Sensitivities Vs. Vulnerabilities (Avian Flu Vs. SARS)