AGE

Creative Ways To Identify Talent The Israel Football Association March 2012

‘ The function of the expert is not to be more right than other people, rather it is to be wrong for more sophisticated reasons’

Anon

Talent Identification Assessing ‘talent’ José V. Portolés Montañés

Performance

‘The educator must above all understand how to wait; to reckon all effects in the light of the future, not of the present’.

Ellen Key, 1911

Potential

Talent Identification

‘Recruitment is a process, scouting is an activity’

Jim Lawler Manchester United Head of Recruitment

Talent Identification

‘ The evidence that we could not forecast success accurately was overwhelming. The story was always the same: our ability to predict performance at the school was negligible. Our forecasts were better than blind guesses, but not by much.’

Daniel Kahneman Thinking Fast and Slow Nobel Prize 2002 ( Decision Making and Uncertainty)

Talent Identification

‘We had compelling impressions of the behaviour we observed and no good way to represent our ignorance of the factors that would eventually determine how well the candidate would perform as an officer’ ‘Confidence is a feeling which reflects the coherence of the information and the cognitive ease of processing it’

Daniel Kahneman Thinking Fast and Slow

Muller – Lyer Test

The Same

Talent Identification

‘Confidence is a feeling which reflects the coherence of the information and the cognitive ease of processing it’

The Illusion of Validity: WYSIATI

Daniel Kahneman Thinking Fast and Slow

Spot The Talent

Talent Identification

Why Is It So Difficult ?

Coaches

Parents

Technical corner

Development Clubs

Teachers

Psychological corner Age?

Age?

Games Programme

Practice to Games ratio

Learning

Key Phases

THE PLAYER Coaching Programme

Alternative Activities

Age?

Age?

Age?

Physical corner

When?

What?

Why?

Evaluation? How?

Social corner

Talent Identification UK Sport: Sporting Giants Programme: Rowing, Volleyball and Handball Initial Criteria: Men 6’ 3’’, Women 5’ 11’’ Some athletic background. No sport specific experience ‘ Ultimately trainability not physique is the confirmation. Trainability tells you much more about their future success. It’s a bit like buying a sports car, you test drive it a few times to see whether it can handle the journey before you invest in it ’ Chelsea Warr UK Sport; Head of Athlete Development

NAME

DOB

Agbonlahor, Gabriel ######## Barry, Gareth ######## Bent, Darren ######## Cahill, Gary ######## Carrick, Michael ######## Cars on, Scott ######## Cole, As hley ######## Cole, Carlton ######## Cole, Joe ######## Crouch, Peter ######## Daws on, Michael ######## Defoe, Jerm ain ######## Ferdinand, Rio ######## Fos ter, Ben ######## Gerrard, Steven ######## Gibbs , Kieran ######## Hargreaves , Owen ######## Hart, Jos eph ######## Huddles tone, Tom ######## Jagielka, Philip ######## Johns on, Adam ######## Johns on, Glen ######## King, Ledley ######## Lam pard, Frank ######## Lennon, Aaron ######## Les cott, Joleon ######## Milner, Jam es ######## Rooney, Wayne ######## Terry, John ######## Ups on, Matthew ######## Walcott, Theo ######## Wright-Phillips , Shaun######## Young, As hley ########

U15M U16M U17M U18M U19M U20M U21M SENM TotalCaps 1 7

6 10

5 3 3 4 4

1 5

6

6 2

2 2 2

1 4

7 5

4

2 11

9

5

8 2

6 4 1 9 9

19 5 10

4

7 1

4 1 1

3 3 13 1 9 10

1 1 1 1 9

4

1

14

1

0 5 6

15 27 14 3 14 28 4 19 8 6 13 22 5 4 14 3 19 30 6 17 14 12 19 5 2 43 9 12 20 6 8

3 41 6 2 23 6 86 8 56 41 5 46 80 4 86 1 43 5 3 6 3 28 22 84 20 10 14 66 65 21 15 34 9

18 / 33 no caps until U/18 – 8 / 33 no caps until U/20 – 22 / 33 < 10 caps by U/21

19 79 40 8 41 39 92 34 76 51 19 79 90 4 96 27 46 30 57 15 29 76 42 106 49 19 81 83 74 42 54 40 17

WYSIATI • 6 Key Factors That Influence Judgement: • • • • • •

Performance not potential Left sided bias through observation (Physical / Technical) Hidden bias ref D-O-B. Lack of appropriate reference points Personal paradigm Competition (we don’t , they will)

Performance or Potential • • • • • • •

Chronological Age Maturational State Experience in the Team Experience in the Position Opposition Team Direct Opponent Recent History ( Activity / Injury )

• In advance of observation OR opinion will be distorted !

Body type

Dob

t/h

04.01.85

t/h

Age

Maturation

UEFA

Expectation

Position

Number

Expectation

Achieved

Time

minus 0 months

15.10

4

1

1

2

4

1

inj

na

na

inj

26.01.85

minus 0 months

15.10

4

1

0

2

4

9

9

3

3

40 min

a/a

09.01.85

minus 0 months

15.10

3

0

0

2

1

res

res

res

res

a/a

27.02.85

Minus 1 months

15.09

4

1

0

2

3

3

res

res

res

res

a/a

15.02.85

minus 1 months

15.09

3

0

1

2

3

10

10

3

4

79 min

a/a

10.02.85

minus 1 months

15.09

3

1

0

2

3

11

11

3

3

80 min

a/a

26.02.85

minus 1 months

15.09

4

0

1

2

4

3or6

3

3

3

80 min

t/h

12.03.85

minus 2 months

15.07

5

1

0

2

5

5

12

4

3

16 min

t/h

10.03.85

minus 2 months

15.07

5

1

0

2

5

5

5

4

5

80 min

t/h

29.03.85

minus 2 months

15.07

4

0

0

2

2

1

13

2

sub

sub

a/a

22.04.85

minus 3 months

15.06

4

0

0

2

2

res

2

2

1 min

a/a

08.05.85

minus 4 months

15.05

3

1

0

2

3

8

res

res

res

res

t/a

02.05.85

minus 4 months

15.05

4

0

0

2

4

9

16

3

3

40 min

1g

a/h

21.06.85

minus 5 months

15.04

4

0.0

2

5

8

8

4

5

80 min

1g

t/a

26.08.85

minus 7 months

15.03

4

0

0

2

3

4

4

2

3

80 min

t/a

24.09.85

minus 8 months

15.02

4

1

0

2

3

4

14

3

3

6 min

a/h

24.10.85

minus 9 months

15.01

4

0

1

2

3

9

7

4

3

74 min

t/h

20.11.85

minus 10 months

15.00

4

0

0

2

4

1

1

3

3

80 min

t/a

06.01.86

minus 12 months

14.09

4

1

0

2

3

5

2

3

4

80 min

t/h

15.04.86

minus 15 months

14.06

4

0

0

2

3

6

6

3

3

64 min

= tall,

6' 0" plus

u15 year team 85

Today

3 = Average

Experience

Starts/Sub

FIFA

Allow for age,

a = average 5' 6" to 5' 11"

maturation and

s = short

experience

5' 0" to 5' 5"

h = heavy 71kg +

71 kg plus

a = average, 61 to 70 kg

= light,

51 to 60 kg

Name

Subs in Italics

Todays

Shirt

position

number

Before match

Players

game grade

CLUB

notes

2g

capt

1g

MATURITY – AGES AND STAGES? 2 BOYS OF SIMILAR CHRONOLOGICAL AGE

DO WE COMPARE?

DO THEY COMPARE? 17 years 4 months old

17 years 5 months old

WHAT ARE OUR EXPECTATIONS?

WHAT ARE THEIR EXPECTATIONS?

HOW MANY AGES ARE THERE?

Solutions ? • Bio-banding:

• Height (cm) x Weight (kg) 1000

Eg 7.2 then + / - 2

Birth preference? 1st September or 31st August

AGE WHAT’S THE CONCERN?

BOYS BIRTHS IN PROFESSIONAL CLUBS – IS THIS BY CHOICE? WHO PICKS THE TEAM & WHAT’S THEIR MOTIVE?

6000 5000

QUESTION: ARE THE MAJORITY OF THE BEST PLAYERS BORN SEPTEMBER TO DECEMBER?

57 %

5047

4000 3000

School and club start.

2000

So What?

30 %

Why are the youngest left out?

2659

13 %

1000 0

Sep-Dec

Jan-Apr

1151 May-Aug

8857 club 9 to 16 year old players

6,078 births of 9 to 16 year olds for season 2004/05 jan 9% feb 7%

dec 10% nov 12%

mar 7% apr 5% may 5% jun jul 4% aug 4% 3%

oct 15%

sep-dec = 56% jan-apr = 28% may-aug = 16%

sep 19%

sep-dec = 58% jan-apr = 28% may-aug = 14%

m ar 8%

oct 10%

apr 7%

sep 11% sep-dec = 39% jan-apr = 31% may-aug = 30%

jul 7%

m ay 8% jun 7%

jan 9%

nov 14%

dec 10%

WHEN SCOUTS DECIDE

1,255 births of 9 to 16 year olds for season 2004/05

jan feb 8% 8%

dec nov 9% 9%

15%

feb 6%

10,468 births of 9 to 16 year olds for season 2004/05

aug 8%

2,025 births of 9 to 16 year olds for season 2004/05 aug jun jul sep may 4% 3% 4% 19% 3% apr 6% mar 7% oct

Nov 9%

Dec 9%

Jan 8%

Mar 9%

Oct 9%

Apr 8%

Sep 9%

sep-dec = 36% jan-apr = 33% may-aug = 31%

Feb 8%

Aug 7%

Jul 7%

Jun 8%

May 9%

WHEN MUMS AND DADS DECIDE

Solutions ? Split start dates: Schools and Club • Split start dates: Schools and Club football. Schools 1st October to 30th September Clubs 1st January to 31st Dec

Schools 1st September to 31st August Clubs 1st January to 31st December

Solutions ?

Split start dates: On date of birth On 14th July Youngest in age group eg U/12

On 14th July

Youngest in age group eg U/13

Experience as oldest in the age group (Advantaged ?)

Experience as youngest in age group (Disadvantaged ?)

January 6 months in and old leave, new join now middle of group

Performance Milestones

TOURE What did they do at 10 ? Were they the same ? What do they do now ? Are they the same ?

FORLAN

Performance Milestones: 3 Stages • Generic skills / 4 corners; What ? (Ajax : T.I.P.S) • Role specific skills; What ? (When do they impact ?) • Club philosophy; Why ? (What do you want YOUR players to look like ?)

VALENCIA C.F. Players are chosen taking into account: Their relationship with the ball Decision making capacity

Their temperament in competition Their improvement potential. They must be good at all these aspects and excel at some of them. They believe that most of the players who fit these categories are already playing as strikers and they convert them into defenders later, usually by the time they are 15-16.

Performance Milestones

Changing The Paradigm

‘ When Roger Federer plays tennis, he does not make better inferences from a universally accessible pool of sensory information; rather he sees and hears the world in an entirely different way. His deep knowledge of tennis transforms the very fabric of his perceptions.’

Matthew Syed Bounce (The myth of talent and the power of practice)

Changing The Paradigm Do we have to see players / talent in an entirely different way ?

Best learners are ?

These are right side issues, the more we know, the better guess we can make.

Changing the Paradigm

Fixed Mindset eg; When faced with effort, set-backs, failure or more able peers they tend to question their ability.

Growth Mindset eg; Recognise that effort, difficulties, failure and mistakes are an inevitable and often essential part of the learning process.

Carol Dweck, Mindset: The New Psychology of Success, Ballantine, New York, 2008.

Changing the Paradigm ‘You know why this place is successful, because none of the kids leave here without their mindset transformed. They may arrive thinking they can cruise their way to success, but they quickly learn that nobody has got anywhere in life without working hard, by showing tremendous discipline and by taking responsibility for their actions. That is what ultimately separates the best from the rest’

Nick Bolletieri Quoted in Bounce (The myth of talent and the power of practice) Matthew Syed (2010)

Solutions ? ‘SKILLS EXTRA’ ‘Is the approach to learning the key element that can define those that have reached the very top ? Their motivation to practice, to try new things and to keep going when things don’t work’ ‘We take them all including the younger and smaller ones, they might not be the best ones now, but could have real potential over the longer term, what I call ‘slow burners’ Martin Preston Manager FA / Tesco Skills Coach Programme

Solutions

‘SKILLS EXTRA’

106 Specialists working with ‘non elite players’ between ages of 5 and 11.

2010 112 players joined Centres of Excellence or Academies 42 players joined from Centres of Excellence or Academies .

2011 203 players joined Centres of Excellence or Academies 105 Players joined from Centres of Excellence or Academies.

Solutions ? Initial Recruitment England: Formal registration 9 years old. Informal registration 5 years old. 9- 13 years old players register for 1 year 14 year old players register for 2 years Limited activity outside of club. Compensation payment system.

Formation Training • CFA – 8 sessions + 1 match 14 players – 10.00 to 12.00 and 4.00 to 6.00pm (Coach - Laurent Huard FT) • Under 18’s – 8 sessions + 1 match 13 players – 10.00 to 12.00 and 4.00 to 6.00pm (Coach - Lebris Fabris FT) • Under 16’s – 8 sessions + 1 match (45 mins ew) 14 players – 10.00 to 12.00 and 4.00 to 6.00pm ( Coach – Yannick Menu FT) • Under 15’s – 6 sessions + 1 match (40mins ew) 12players – 10.00 to 12.oo Mon to Fri + Wed 4.00 to 6.00pm (Coach Yannick Menu + Franck Haise) •

Under14’s – 5 Sessions + 1 match (40 mins ew) 4.30 to 7.00pm (Coach Franck Haise FT) • Under 13’s – 3 to 5 sessions + 1 match (35 mins ew) (Coach – Vincent Garnier FT) GK’s – 7 Sessions per week (Coach – Francois Seguin FT)

Amateur Section

2x Adult Teams 2x U18 Teams 2x U15 Teams

3xU13 Teams – 11v11 3x U11 Teams – 9v9 3x U9 Teams – 7v7

Parents pay 50 Euros for Registration

21Players

Debutants = U6 and U7’s

Increased Retention

The under 18/19s have one team and have 25 players

The under 16s/17s have 2 teams and 50 players. The under 15s/14s retain 65 players and have 3 teams (this higher figure to allow for maturation/puberty issues).

There is a call to service, that will take great courage to leave what we have and move out, not without fear but without succumbing to that fear . It is a call to re-define what is possible, to see a vision of a new world and be willing to undertake step by step what is necessary in concrete terms to achieve that vision. H. Fromm