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The variability of the Asian summer monsoon in warmer climate Ding Yihui* (National Climate Center, CMA)
*Contributers: Wang Zunya, Sun Ying,Liu Yunyun, Liu Yanju, Song Yafang, Zhang Jin
Outline 1. The variability of Asian summer monsoon under global warming in last 100-years 2. Future change in Asian summer monsoon in a warmer world in next 100 years 3. Discussions and conclusions
1. The variability of Asian summer monsoon under global warming in last 100-years
Climatology of the Asian summer monsoon
Fig.1. The vertically integrated moisture flux transport (surface to 300hPa )averaged for summer (JJA: June, July and August) of 19482006(Unit:kg.m-1.s-1)
Fig.2. The vertically integrated field of divergence of moisture transport for JJA of 1948-2006. Negative (positive) regions denotes the convergence (divergence) of moisture(Unit:10-5 kg.m-2.s-1)
Fig.3. Climatological mean (1979-2006) summer precipitation pattern ( Unit:mm.d-1)
1.16 94.72 8.79
(+30.61) 116.33 NEC
27.00 (-5.82) NC 91.24 49.63 23.49 (+78.81)YHRB97.58 193.06
162.21 AS 29.19
(+85.23)
BOB
143.47
(-892.19) SIO
28.6 6
(+341.80) NWNP
202.29
405.21
267.35 SCS
834.39 (+329.27)455.54 (+201.14)111.64
786.60
120.21
37.71 202.54 (+70.42) SC 32.11
53.39
124.59
(+519.28) SWNP
544.98
267.87
202.46
79.52
Fig.4. Schematic maps of the climatological mean moisture budgets of the Asian-Pacific summer monsoon region in summer (JJA) (Units:106kg/s). The shaded area refers to the Tibetan Plateau. The positive and negative values represent net moisture influx and efflux, respectively. SIO: South Indian Ocean(30S°0°N, 40°E-120°E); AS: Arabian Sea(0°-22.5°N, 40°E-80°E); BOB: Bay of Bengal (0°-22.5°N , 80°E-100°E); SCS: South China Sea(0°-22.5°N , 100°E-120°E) ; SC: South China (22.5°N-27°N, 100°E-120°E); YHRB: Yangtze–Huaihe River Valleys(27°N-35°N, 100°E-120°E); NC: North China(35°N-42°N,100°E-120°E); NEC: Northeast China(42°N-54°N ,120°E-135°E); NWNP: northwestern part of North Pacific (22.5°N-45°N , 120°E-160°E); SWNP: southwestern part of North Pacific(0°-22.5N°, 120°E-160°E).(Liu, et al.,2009)
Time series of observed mean surface temperature change for last 100 years Top panel: NH; bottom panel: China. Red: trends , blue:21-yr running average. 气 温 距 平 (K)
年
气 温 距 平
2 OBSWG
OBSt
OBSm21
1.5 1
(C) 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
年
year
观测近百余年北半球(上图,Latif等,2009)和中国(下图,根据龚道溢,王绍武,2009计算绘制)年 平均气温距平变化(图中黑线是年平均距平,红线是线性趋势,兰线是21年滑动平均)
Correlation patterns of Asian-Pacific summer (JJA) monsoon
亚洲-太平洋季风降水的相关分布 西北太平洋关键区6~8月降水与亚洲-太平洋季风区降水的相关
Teleconnection modes of various components of Asian summer system: holistic correlation for ISO
+
+
+ +
+
+ +
+ +
-
季风子系统的遥相关(季节内变率的整体性) 夏季风爆发初期,ISM通过“南支”遥相关型影响长江流域梅雨; 夏季风盛行期间,ISM通过“北支”遥相关型影响华北地区降水; WNPSM主要通过经30~60天滤波的CISO影响中国夏季降水。
Weakening of the Asian summer monsoon and superposed inter-annual and inter-decadal variability .
Fig.5. Long-term variation of the East summer monsoon index for 1870-2003 (based on Guo’s monsoon index). Positive(negative)values denote stronger (weaker)summer monsoon than normal. (IPCC, 2007)
Inter-decadal variability for all India precipitation 12-18,30-40 and 60-80-yr oscillation
年代际变率:12-18年,30-40年,60与80年
(Goswami,2005)
Long–tem of anomalous precipitation in Asian-African monsoon regions 30 15 0
a
西非 West Africa (Trenberth, et al. 2007)
b
东非 East Africa (Trenberth, et al. 2007)
c
南亚 South Africa (Trenberth, et al. 2007)
-15
降水距平 百分比/%
-30 30 15 0 -15 -30 30 15 0 -15 -30 80
40
d
0
-40
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
1880-2008年亚非季风区降水量异常
中国华北(71个站序列) North China
2000
Ren and Feng (2009)
我国降水分布发生了明显变化
Significant change in summer precipitation pattern in China (1958-2007) unit:%/10yrs
%/10
( 单 位 :
年 )
(中国气象局气候变化中心)
近50年来,西部地区降水约增加15%—50%;东部地区频繁出现“南涝北旱”,华南地 区降水约增加5%—10%,而华北和东北大部分地区约减少10%—30%。 (图:19582007年我国年降水量变化幅度)
Difference in drought days between 1979-2008 and 1951-1978 50
40
30
20 80
90
100
110
120
130
1979-2008年和1951-1978年年平均干旱日数之差 (单位:天) (第二次国家气候变化评估报告初稿,2009)
Numbers of days of heavy rainfall
近50年来中国大陆极端强降水日数的变化趋势(实心和虚心圆分别代表增 加和下降趋势,按半径大小分别为每10年变化7.5% 以上,7.5%~2.5%, 小于2.5% ,显著变化的地区标有叉号)
Vulnerability of fresh water resources in the context of global climate change (high stress region in North China)
气候变化下,全球现代淡水资源的脆弱性和他们的管理 IPCC,2007
(a)
(b) 长江
华北
(c)
(d)
华南
梅雨季
123年(1880-2003)中国东部分区降水的变化
Long –term (123yr)variation of summer precipitation in North China (a), Yangtze River basin (b), South China (c) and Meiyu season
(a) Va ria nc e ( σ 2)
(b) 华北
Period (years)
Period (years)
(c)
(d) 华南
Va ria nc e ( σ 2)
Period (years)
长江
Va ria nc e ( σ 2)
Va ria nc e ( σ 2)
梅雨季
Period (years)
小波分析功率谱:30-40年与80年周期趋势变化分析:1978和1992是两个突变点
Spectrum power of wavelet analysis:30-40-yr and 60-80-yr oscillations
中国东部不同分区夏季降水的主要周期
Major periods of summer precipitation in different subregions of East China
subdivision 分区 华南
South China
4, 14*, 30*, 80*
2*, 7, 30*
Yangtze
2*, 7*, 20*, 40*
2*, 7,14, 40*
North China
3, 9, 18*, 40*, 80
3*, 9, 18
2, 7, 12, 40*, 80*
2, 7*, 12, 40*
长江中下游 华北
A时段(123年) B时段(54年)
长江中下游5站 (121年)
Meiyu Season *代表超过50%信度
中国东部三个地区夏季降水的突变点检验
Detection of abrupt change points for different subregions in East China
Methods 方法
South China 华南
Yangte 长江中下 游
North China
Meiyu
华北
梅雨期长江中下 游5站
Running Test
1980, 1992
1978
1965, 1979
1978
Yamamoto et al., (1986)
1980, 1992
1979
1964, 1980
1980
Mann-Kendall (1945; 1975)
1993
1982
1975
1978
所有的突变点都超过95%的信度
15
(a) (b)
Temporal amplitude
10
5
0
-5
-10 1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year 15
空间分布 Temporal amplitude
(c)
时间系数
10
(d)
5
0
-5
-10
-15 1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
中国夏季降水的EOF分析(1951-2004)
EOF modes of summer precipitation (JJA) for 1951-2004 (a)(c): EOF1;(b)(d): EOF2
2010
夏季风 水汽输 送向量 的EOF分 析 下图是 时间系 数
60
Temporal amplitude
40
Leading EOF model of moisture tranport for Asian summer monsoon
20
0
-20
-40 1950
1965
1980
Year
1995
2010
a
3
b
2
1
0 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 -1
-2
-3
图2 1951~2005年夏季850hPa风场的EOF分解的第1特征向量(a)及对应的时间系数(b)
1951-1978
1979-1992
1993-2004 中国不同时段,夏季降水距平百分比分布 的变化。(阴影区是正距平,相对于19712000年平均值)
In-decadal shifts of summer monsoon patterns in China shading: positive anomaly percentage
1951-2004中国东部(107.5-130°E)平均夏季异常降水纬度-时间剖面图。单位: mm
Latitude-time cross-section of summer precipitation departure(107.5-130°E)
850 hPa平均经向风纬度时间剖面图 (unit: ms-1)。阴影区是异常南风。
Latitude-time cross-section of 850hpa V-component departures, shading: South wind
(a)
(b)
1955-2004 异常夏季水汽输送(a)和水汽汇 (Q2) (b)纬度-时间剖面图。(地面到 300hPa输送总量)。单位: Kgm-1g-1 (a) 和10-5Kgm-1s-1 (b).
Cross-sections of anomalous moisture (a) transport and divergence (Q2) (b) for East China
850hPa wind EOF2
Time coefficient
a
A 3
b
2
1
C
0 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 -1
-2
-3
c
Interannual Variability: TBO and 4-7-yr oscillations 1951~2005年夏季850hPa风场的EOF分解的第2特征向量(a)、 时间系数(b)及时间系数的最大熵谱曲线(c)
Sea level pressure a
EOF fields of (a)EOF1 (c) EOF2 and corresponding time coefficients (b)EOF 1,(d)EOF2 2
b 1
0
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
-1
-2
-3
d
4
3
d
2
1
c
0 1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
-1
-2
-3
1951~2005年夏季海平面气压场EOF分解 的第1和2特征向量(a、c)对应的时间系 数(b、d)
(b)
(a) 40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
-40
1940
1960
1980
2000
1940
1960
1980
2000
Time series of the anomalous vertically integrated (from surface to 100hPa) apparent heat source (Q1) averaged for all Tibetan Plateau (75~105°E,27.5~42.5°N ) for summer (a), and spring (b). Solid lines denote 9-yr running mean curves. Unit: Wm-2
EOF fields of vertically integrated atmospheric heat source (Q1) (a) EOF1; (b) EOF2 and corresponding time coefficients; (b) EOF1;(d)EOF2 a 3
b
2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
-0.5 -1 -1.5 -2
c
2.5
d
2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
-0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 -2.5
整层积分的大气热源分布(阴影为负值区)
e
Composite SSTA (Nino 3.4) patterns for strong summer monsoon phase of the TBO cycle a
d e
b
e
c
季风强年海温的季节演变合成图(a、前一年冬季;b、当年 春季; c、当年夏季;d、当年秋季;e、当年冬季;虚线方框代表 印度洋偶极子关键区和Nino3.4区)
a: preceding winter (year 0) b;spring (year 1) c: summer (year1) d: autumn (year1) e: following winter (year2) Box: IOD and Nino 3.4.
Schematic of the anomalous fields for TBO of the Asian –Pacific forced by ENSO events .
850hPa风场
SSTA0
SSTA
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