Bland Works - Jonathan Malloy

Jonathan Malloy Carleton University

“I will have to have a new slogan: ‘Bland works.’”

Bill Davis, 1980

“The polls tell me I’m not the most popular guy. I accept that.” Dalton McGuinty, 2011

 How

has Ontario politics changed in the last 30 years? • Rotation of governing parties • Economic change • Shifts in Canadian federalism • Increasing population diversity

 Examined

through prism of political culture/political values  Sets the stage for examination of 2011 election

 Wilson

(1980): The “Red Tory” province

• Ascriptive, elitist, hierarchical, stable, cautious and

restrained  Noel

(1997)

• the imperative pursuit of economic success • assumption of pre-eminence in the Canadian

federation • requirement of managerial efficiency in government • expectation of reciprocity in political relationships • the balancing of interests

 Loyalty  Pragmatism

(“managing prosperity”)

 Identification

with Canada

 Wilson

(1997) “It does appear to be the same old Ontario.”

1985  



Poor leadership transition (rural, older image) PC division over separate school funding

1990  



Voter alienation and discontent (Meech, economy) Unpopularity of federal PCs

General pragmatic streak in Peterson majority and Rae govts



Changes can be explained by timing and windows of opportunity, rather than underlying value shifts Loyalty and pragmatism remain; identication with Canada?

 1995

PC victory unexpected

 Tone

of radical policy change

 Polarization

of Ontario politics; building on Rae years

 Harris: Idealogue

or

opportunist?  Erratic

Ernie Eves

 Political

change and polarization

 Economic

restructuring

 Federal-provincial

disputes

 Growing

racial and cultural diversity

 Loyalty?

 Pragmatism?

 Identification

Canada?

with

 Image

of bland sincerity  Platform of stability  Pragmatic leadership and policies • pursuit of economic success • assumption of Canadian pre-

eminence • managerial efficiency • reciprocity in political relationships • balancing of interests

 Reinforced

in 2007

election • PC platform offered

limited contrast • School funding: retro issue with new twist • John Tory: similar personal image to McGuinty

 Ontario

politics again about “managing prosperity” and balancing interests

 But

increasing assertiveness within Canada • “Interest in things Ontarian” (Wiseman 2007) • Mowat Centre • Fiscal imbalance issues • Popular, or just policy?

 Minority

bargaining

 Drummond

 Cuts

Report

and polarization

 Loyalty?  Pragmatism?

 Identification

Canada?  Continuing

management problems (Ornge)

with



Economic downturn • Decline of

manufacturing



Management problems • E-health • Ecotax • Energy mega-projects



PC lead in polls



But…

 PC

disconnect between “tax man” attacks and promises of continued/ increased spending

 NDP

Horwarth platform with pseudo-populist approach

 Liberals

relied on their stable policy approach





“The polls tell me I’m not the most popular guy. I accept that.”



All parties lacked serious plans for new economic and fiscal challenges Campaign and election results suggest pragmatic leadership remains key Bland worked (mostly)

 Minority

bargaining

 Drummond

 Cuts

Report

and polarization

 Loyalty?  Pragmatism?

 Identification

Canada?  Continuing

management problems (Ornge)

with