Chapter 14 - ohsjoneswagy

Chapter 14

The Campaign American Government: Continuity and Change 9th Edition

to accompany Comprehensive, Alternate, Texas, and Essentials Editions

O’Connor and Sabato

Pearson Education, Inc. © 2008

The Nature of Modern Political Campaigns • “Campaign” is the military term for an armed struggle to achieve a specific objective. • No two are the same; dynamic • Despite the unique qualities of each race, electoral contests are similar in structure, consisting in some form of nomination campaign and a general election.

Nomination Campaign • That part of a political campaign aimed at winning a primary election – Candidates adjust to pressure of the spotlight – Seek the support of party leaders and interest groups, test themes, and slogan – Critical time for gaining and maintaining support within the party and the broader electorate – Candidate must be careful not to move too far to his/her party’s extreme during the nomination campaign. Could be harmful during the general election

General Election Campaign • Part of a political campaign aimed at winning the general election – – – –

Occurs after candidate has won party’s nomination Focus on gaining support from groups and voters Decide on issues to emphasize Adopt a brief theme to serve as rallying cry • “A Stronger America” – 2004 Kerry/Edwards • “In Your Heart, You Know He’s Right” – 1964 Goldwater – Opposition: “In your guts, you know he’s nuts”

– Candidate must also define his or her stance on other topics of interest to voters

The Key Players: The Candidate and the Campaign Staff • Most important aspect of the campaign is the quality of the candidate and the attributes of the campaign team • Package and project the message requires expertise in media and public relations • Ability to raise funds – Strong candidate – Experienced campaign staff

The Candidate • Enter for variety of reasons • Must generate support – Meet and greet; one-on-one – Media coverage – Exhausting schedule

The Campaign Staff • Volunteer Campaign Staff – Voter canvas – GOTV

• Candidate’s Professional Staff – – – – – – –

Campaign manager Finance chair Pollster Direct Mailer Communications Director Press Secretary Internet Team

• Hired Guns

– Campaign consultants – Media consultants

• Personal Advisors

Coverage of the Game: The Media’s Role in Defining the Playing Field • What voters hear and see of the candidate is primarily determined by – Paid media – Free media

• The amount, form, and content of paid media are dictated by the campaign. • Free media consists of independent press coverage.

Paid Media • Positive ad – Advertising on behalf of a candidate that stresses the candidate’s qualifications, family, and issue positions, without reference to the opponent

• Negative ad – Advertising on behalf of a candidate that attacks the opponent’s platform or character

Paid Media • Contrast ad – Ad that compares the records and proposals of the candidates, with a bias toward the sponsor

• Spot ad – Television advertising on behalf of a candidate that is broadcast in sixty-, thirty-, or ten-second duration

• Inoculation ad – Advertising that attempts to counteract an anticipated attack from the opposition before the attack is launched

Free Media • Coverage of the campaign – Newsworthy – View candidates with suspicion – Obsessed with the “horserace” – Expectations and predictions

The New Media • Technological advances impacted political campaigns • Can gather and disseminate information better than ever – Rapid-response techniques • The formation of prompt and informed responses to changing events on the campaign battlefield

• Internet – 1996 Bob Dole – Blogs

Campaign Strategies to Control Media Coverage • Isolate candidate from the press • Campaign stages media events • Spin • Circumvent press with entertainment-oriented talk shows – a less critical forum • Take great care with debates

The Rules of the Game: Campaign Finance • Reform

– Tillman Act (1907) – Corrupt Practices, Hatch Act, Taft-Hartley Act – Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA) – Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act 2002 – McConnell versus FEC

• Concluded that the government’s interest in preventing political-party corruption overrides the free speech rights to which the parties would otherwise be entitled

Current Rules • Political money is now regulated by the federal government under terms of BCRA of 2002 – Outlaws unlimited and unregulated contributions to parties (soft money) and limits the amounts that individual, interest groups and political parties can give to federal candidates

Sources of Political Contributions • Political money regulated by the federal government can come from – – – – – –

Individual Contributions Political Action Committee Contributions Political Party Contributions Member-to-Candidate Contributions Candidates’ Personal Contributions Public Funds • Donations from the general tax revenues to the campaigns of qualifying presidential candidates • Matching funds • Availability

The Fall of the Soft-Money Loophole and The Rise of the 527 Loophole • Soft Money – The virtually unregulated money funneled by individuals and political committees through state and local parties – Now prohibited under BCRA – Result: Hard money fundraising increased and the emergence of 527s • Hard money: legally specified and limited contributions that are clearly regulated by federal law • 527 political committees: nonprofit and unregulated interest groups that focus on specific causes or policy positions and attempt to influence voters

The Main Event: The 2004 Presidential Campaign • The 2004 election for president may go down in history as one of the most divisive. – A month before the election only 3% undecided – Heated race between incumbent President, George W. Bush and Massachusetts Senator, John Kerry

The Party Nomination Battle • No significant opposition to Bush in the Republican primaries • Democrats had 10 candidates competing for the nomination. – Dynamic campaign resolved in March with John Kerry as the nominee

The Democratic Convention • Kerry announced his choice for vice-president 20 days before the start of the convention.

– Not since Ronald Reagan in 1980 had a nominee picked a primary rival as a running mate. – Also the earliest vice presidential selection in a modern presidential campaign – Attempt to balance the ticket

• Theme of convention: Respected abroad, stronger at home • Solid performance, but Kerry-Edwards did not receive a significant post-convention “bounce”

– This was unusual; not since McGovern in 1972 had this happened – Explanation: no room for bounce; already a very close race

The Republican Convention • Theme: A Nation of Courage • Surprise of the convention: Zell Miller, a Democratic member of the U.S. Senate, gave a heated speech that was critical of Kerry. • New York abounded with protesters. • Bush-Cheney received a modest 2% bounce in the polls. – Support of 53% of likely voters

Debates, Fall Campaign, and the General Election • Debates

– Tight election made debates very critical – 1st debate watched by 62.5 million viewers – Kerry thought to have won first debate and did well in subsequent ones • Impact: leveled the playing field

• Much of campaign activity focused in swing states.

– Bush stayed on message; painting Kerry as a flipflopper – Kerry on attack, but then on defensive

• Results: Long night and no decision until the morning with Bush carrying the election

Election Results • Bush began to show a convincing lead in Florida. • Networks remained cautious. • At midnight, made the call for Bush • Ohio remained too close to call. • Later Wednesday morning, Bush campaign declared victory

Analyzing the Outcome of the 2004 Election • Turnout had been the highest since 1968 with 59.6% eligible citizens participating. • The major partisan divide is seen as the primary cause for such high numbers. • In many ways, similar to 2000 election – Red states remained red and blue states remained blue. – Most of the action took place in a handful of competitive states.

• Was the most expensive presidential race in the nation’s history – Merely a continuation of longstanding modern trends – 60 million people left the election disappointed. – But the event unfolded without incident as Americans accepted and took comfort in the results of their nation’s democratic process.