Current Climate Trends in the Philippines

Climate Trends in the Philippines ²

Presented by: Thelma A. Cinco

PAGASA

International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data , the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia

PAGASA

PAGASA-DOST PAGASA - Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration. The country’s national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHS) provider

MISSION: To provide weather, flood, climate and astronomical products and services to promote the people’s safety and wellbeing & contribute to national development Presidential Decree No. 78; December 1972 as amended by Presidential Decree No. 1149; August 1977

The Philippines, through the PAGASA, is a Member of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a specialized body of the United Nations. International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data , PAGASA

the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia

PAGASA

PAGASA-DOST’s Observation Facilities & Equipment 5 Regional Centers

NORTHERN LUZON (Tuguegarao)

NCR (Quezon City) SOUTHERN LUZON (Legaspi) VISAYAS (Mactan, Cebu)

MINDANAO (Cagayan de Oro)

PAGASA

58 Synoptic stations 23 Agromet stations 80 Climat/Rain stations 69 AWS 10M wind mast 76 AWS 2M wind mast(ASTI) 75 ARG 381 total 6 Upper air stations 10 Doppler radars (2 under construction) 2 Marine buoys 5 Telemetered major river basins 3 Satellite receivers

International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data , the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia

PAGASA

Highly Suceptable to Floodings and Inundation • Archipelago, composed of low lying small islands • 70% of cities and municipalities are coastal areas • Highly susceptible to flooding and storm surges

PAGASA

International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data , the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia

PAGASA

Philippines has not been spared of the weather-related disasters due Storms, Typhoons and very intense rainfall

ST. BERNARD LANDSLIDE Feb 2006

Landslide :Ginsaugon, Feb 2006

TY Milenyo, Sept 2006 PAGASA

TY Reming (DURIAN) 2006

Typhoon Frank (Fengshen)

International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data , the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia

June 21, 2008. (MV Princess of the Stars)

PAGASA

How is global warming manifested in the Philippines?

PAGASA

International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data , the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia

PAGASA

Philippines mean temperature Observed Mean Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines (1951-2010) Departures from 1971-2000 normal values 1

Difference ( C) from 1971-2000)

0.8 Annual mean temp

0.6

Smoothed series (5 year running mean)

0.4 0.2 0

-0.2

Period

-0.4

Rate

1981-2010 (last 30 yrs) 1951-2010 (60 years) Years

-0.6

- 0.0164 - 0.0108 C/year

Source: CAD/PAGASA/DOST

-0.8 1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Year

An increase of 0.65°C from 1951-2010 (60 years)

PAGASA

International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data , the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia

PAGASA

Maximum & Minimum Temperature

Rate of increase almost 3 times higher compared with the maximum temperature

PAGASA

International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data , the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia

PAGASA

Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines Period: (1951 – 2008)

Trend in the frequency of days with maximum temperature above the 1961-1990 mean 99th percentile

(Hot days). PAGASA

Trend in the frequency with minimum temperature above the 1961-1990 mean 99th percentile International workshop on the digitization of Historical (Warm nights)Climate Data , the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia

PAGASA

Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines Period: (1951 – 2008)

Trend in the frequency with maximum temperature below the 1961-1990 mean 1st percentile

Cool Days PAGASA

Trend in the frequency with minimum temperature below the 1961-1990 mean 1st percentile International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data , nights the new SACA&D Database and ClimateCold Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia

PAGASA

PAGASA

International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data , the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia

PAGASA

Classification of Tropical Cyclones 1. Tropical depression - maximum sustained winds is from 45 to 63 kph; 2. Tropical Storm - maximum sustained winds is from 64 to 118 kph; 3. Typhoon – maximum sustained winds is greater than 118 kph.

PAGASA

International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data , the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia

PAGASA

Tracks of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North s. Pacific Period: (1948-2010)

Tropical Cyclone Frequency using 1°x1° (1948-2010)

s.

Visited by an average 19 to 20 Tropical cyclones EVERY YEAR

Tracks of tropical cyclones that formed in the Western North Pacific (WNP) during the period 1948-2010 (1641 TC and 1154 or 70% entered or formed in the Philippine Area of Responsibly (PAR) (Data used: JMA Data set).

PAGASA

International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data , the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia

PAGASA

Trends of the number of tropical cyclone in the Philippines Period: 1948-2010 Annual Number of Tropical Cyclones in the PAR Period: 1948-2010 40

Number of Tropical Cyclones Five-year running mean

30

Linear (Five-year running mean)

Number of Tropical Cyclones

35

y = -0.0223x + 20.124

25 20 15

10 5 0 1948

1953

1958

1963

1968

1973

*Cinco,T.A.,et

PAGASA

1978 Year

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

al.(2006). Updating Tropical Cyclone the PAR., Phil., Met-Hydro Congress 2006. International workshop on the digitization ofclimatology Historical in Climate Data the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region PAGASA April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia

Map of the frequency of tropical cyclone per decade in the PAR Period: 1951-2010

PAGASA

International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data , the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region *Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2011). Updating Tropical Cyclone Climatology in the Philippines. PAGASA April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia

Map of the frequency of tropical cyclone per decade in the Philippines

*Cinco,T.A.,et

PAGASA

al.(2011). Updating Tropical Cyclone Climatology in the Philippines.

International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data , the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia

PAGASA

Trends of the number of tropical cyclone in the Philippines with maximum sustained winds of 150 kph and above Number of Extreme Typhoon (150 kph and above) Period: 1971-2010 12 Mean= 5.7 or 6 TCs

Frequency of TC

10

Neutral year El Niño year La Niña year

(10), 2004 9, 1987

8

6

4

2

0

1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 Year

PAGASA

International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data , the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia

PAGASA

Monthly frequency of T.C. entering the PAR and crossing the Philippines Period: 1948-2010 250

Number of TropicalCyclones

Number of Landfalling TC's 200

Number of non-Landfalling TC's

80

67

150

77 88

100 87 46 50

0

126

130

30 10 17

6 13

9 9

18 11

34

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

0.5

0.3

0.3

0.5

71

48

Jun

47

111

Jul

Aug

Sep

3.3

3.1

Oct

44

36

Nov

Dec

Monthly

Mean

PAGASA

1.1

1.6

3.4

2.7

2.2

International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data , the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia

1.4

PAGASA

Tropical cyclone statistics in PH DISASTROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE

DISASTROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE

(TOTAL DAMAGE PHP 1 BILLION OR MORE) PERIOD:1970-2010

Number of Casualties > 300

TC NAME

Date of Occurrence

TY_PEPENG (Parma) TY PEDRING TY FRANK (Fengshen) TY JUAN (Megi) TS_ONDOY (Ketsana) TY_RUPING

Sep 30 - Oct 10 2009 SEP 24- 28, 2011 Jun 18 – 23, 2008 Oct16 – 21, 2010 Sep 24 – 27, 2009 NOV 8-14, 1990

Total damage in Billion PhP 27.296722 15.552000 13.500000 11.500000 10.952198 10.846000

Increasing cost of Damage

TC NAME

Date of Occurrence

TS Uring * TS Sendong (Washi) * TY Nitang TY Trix TY Amy TY Rosing

Nov 1-6, 1991 Dec 15-17, 2011 Aug 31 – Sep 4, 1984 Oct 17-23, 1952 Dec 6-11, 1951 Oct 30-Nov 4, 1995

Casualti es 5101 1268 1029 995 991 936

*The passages of TS Uring and TS Sendong were characterized by flashfloods.

MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF A TC

MAXIMUM GUSTINESS OF A TC

Maximum 24-hour rainfall (mm)

Date of Occurrence

TY Feria

1085.8 (Baguio)

July 4, 2001

Oct 21, 1998

TY Iliang

994.6(Baguio)

Oct 14, 1998

280 (Virac)

Nov 27, 1981

TY Trining

979.4 (Baguio)

Oct 17, 1967

TY Sening

276 (Virac)

Oct 13, 1970

TY Susang

781.4 (Baguio)

Oct 11, 1974

TY Wening

269 (Aparri)

Oct 27, 1974

TY Trining

760.0 (Baguio)

Oct 27, 1991

TY Trining

269 (Masbate)

Dec 15, 1987

TY Ditang

730.3(Baguio)

May 15, 1980

Maximum Wind (kph)

Date of Occurrence

TY Reming

320 (Virac)

Nov 30, 2006

TY Loleng

287 (Virac)

TY Anding

TC NAME

PAGASA

TC NAME

International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data , the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia

PAGASA

Observed24-hour rainfall – 455mm PAGASA

International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data , the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia

PAGASA

Trends in Extreme Daily Rainfall Intensity in the Philippines Period: (1951 – 2008)

PAGASA

International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data , the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia

PAGASA

IMPACTS OF ENSO ON PHILIPPINE RAINFALL

Legend: Severe drought impacts Drought impacts with major losses Moderate drought impacts Near normal to above normal condition Way above normal condition Potential for flood damage flood International the digitization of Historical , RED colored years are EL NINO years, BLUE workshop coloredonyears are LA NINA Climate Data Severe the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region damage years and BLACK colored years are NON_ENSO years PAGASA April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia PAGASA

Monthly Mean Rainfall Distribution Neutral

PAGASA

El Niño

La Niña

International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data , the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia

PAGASA

Monthly Rainfall Average by Climate Type Mean Monthly Rainfall (mm) for Legazpi City Type II

1200.0

800.0

1000.0

700.0

Rainfall Amount (mm)

Rainfall Amount (mm)

Mean Monthly Rainfall (mm) for Baguio City(Type I)

800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0 0.0

600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

0.0

NORMAL 7100 12.1 11.7 29.3 92.3 354.7 436.4 838.4 911.8 581.0 461.8 124.6 23.7

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Neutral

16.1 14.6 40.3 99.9 354.4 459.6 777.1 907.4 639.6 258.1 162.6 20.1

NORMAL 7100 321.9 209.8 185.0 163.0 169.9 259.8 279.0 236.1 261.6 353.8 486.3 563.1

El niño

10.2 6.6 16.1 46.4 265.2 489.41025.7 847.0 567.7 364.3 64.0 24.0

Neutral

285.2 187.2 191.7 142.4 184.2 248.4 251.2 252.4 283.5 375.9 426.4 422.0

La Niña

13.6 26.6 45.4 126.8 373.8 460.9 476.4 819.1 537.2 603.2 157.8 37.8

El niño

245.4 119.3 122.2 105.4 126.9 223.2 284.8 252.3 252.5 226.2 420.1 419.4

La Niña

407.2 290.7 267.7 235.8 212.1 225.0 229.2 253.5 233.2 351.7 578.8 714.8

Mean Monthly Rainfall (mm) for Dumaguete (Type III)

Mean Monthly Rainfall (mm) for Davao City (Type IV) 800.0

700.0 Rainfall Amount (mm)

Rainfall Amount (mm)

800.0

600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 0.0

700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

0.0

NORMAL 7100 80.2 54.5 41.6 48.6 70.5 122.5 116.3 110.1 141.5 168.5 142.6 103.6

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

NORMAL 7100 124.8 99.8 92.3 141.1 176.5 207.7 148.1 181.0 184.3 178.3 135.3 103.5

Neutral

84.8 64.5 60.2 35.6 70.0 135.8 136.1 94.5 112.7 152.7 148.2 120.7

EL NINO

43.0 24.2 13.9 17.8 50.2 103.1 122.3 122.2 104.1 136.8 109.1 83.4

Neutral

114.9 80.8 66.4 91.9 125.6 164.6 134.0 137.2 177.9 206.6 214.4 136.2

El niño

87.0 67.2 45.4 80.7 203.2 220.9 155.2 155.3 171.7 182.0 133.2 79.3

La Niña

153.1 109.1 120.7 166.3 186.7 177.9 182.6 197.6 201.5 165.5 135.0 132.0

LA NNA

PAGASA

135.3 123.5 99.6 134.1 184.1 182.4 171.3 164.0 161.0 169.1 153.7 124.1

International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data , the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia

PAGASA

Climate Trends in Manila

PAGASA

International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data , the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia

PAGASA

Manila Annual Mean Temperature (°C) Manila (1901 - 2010) 30.0 29.5

Annual Mean Temperature 5-year moving average Linear (5-year moving average)

Mean Temperature (°C)

29.0 28.5 28.0 27.5 27.0 26.5

y = 0.0201x + 26.513

26.0 25.5

2009

2004

1999

1994

1989

1984

1979

1974

1969

1964

1959

1954

1949

1936

1931

1926

1921

1916

1911

1906

1901

25.0

YEAR

An increase of 2.21 C from 1901-2010 (110 years) PAGASA

International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data , the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia

PAGASA

Manila Comparison of the 30-years average of MeanTemperature for Manila 28.5

Tempearutre°C

28.0 27.5 27.0

26.5 26.0 Manila

PAGASA

1901-1930

1911-1940

1951-1980

1961-1990

1971-2000

1981-2010

26.9

27.2

27.6

27.8

28.2

28.3

International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data , the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia

PAGASA

Manila Rainfall Anomaly in Manila Period: 1865-2010 (depature from 1971 to 2000 normal values) 2000

Rainfall Anomaly (from 1971-2000) 1500

Rainfall Amount (mm)

5 yr moving ave 1000

Linear (5 yr moving ave) 500 0 -500

-1000

1865 1870 1875 1880 1885 1890 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

-1500

PAGASA

International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data , the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia

PAGASA

Manila Comparison of 30 years Average Mean Rainfall for Manila 2500 2000 1500 1000 500

0 1901-1930

PAGASA

1911-1940

1951-1980

1961-1990

1971-2000

1981-2009

International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data , the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia

PAGASA

Mean Monthly Rainfall (mm) for Manila Rainfall Amount (mm)

600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 0.0

PAGASA

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

NORMAL 7100

19.0

7.9

11.1

21.4

165.2

265.0

423.2

486.0

330.7

270.9

129.6

75.3

Nuetral

14.1

9.1

14.4

19.8

152.8

265.5

382.0

494.7

335.3

223.7

111.5

56.6

EL NINO

15.4

5.8

4.4

5.3

101.5

226.5

576.1

429.8

375.9

169.7

89.3

47.8

LA NNA

21.8

13.8

15.8

39.1

187.1

313.4

293.3

430.6

389.4

276.7

175.4

89.2

International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data , the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia

PAGASA

Tracking the sky…helping the country

PAGASA

International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data , the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia

PAGASA