Decision Making and Foreign Policy
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Chapter 4: Foreign Policy Decision Making
Rational Choice Perspective • Generally the model presented by leaders as how they decide on policy
Assumes policy decisions are made carefully through well defined processes that pursue clearly defined goals. Risks and benefits are measured and balanced Optimal solutions are selected as policy 2
Policy Making as Rational Choice 1. 2. 3. 4.
Problem recognition and definition Goal selection Identification of alternatives Choice
Associated with realist/state as unitary actor
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Factors Impacting Foreign Policy System Level Factors • Polarity • Degree of concentration of military/economic power among major states
• Polarization • How firmly minor states cluster around the major powers in alliances
• Geopolitics – Impact of geographic characteristics 4
Domestic Factors: Military Capabilities • States actions are constrained by their military strength • No aggression w/out power projection capability • Boldness connected with military capability • Japan? Iran? Canada? US? Etc…
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Domestic Factors: Economic Capacity • Capable to supply, resupply a military? • Capable to sustain a siege
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Domestic Factors: Government type • Democracy • Autocratic rule • Is there a connection between type of government and foreign policy? • Democratic Peace? • Democratic weakness? • Autocratic aggressiveness?
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Domestic Factors: Rational political ambition hypothesis: • Leaders like to maintain or expand their role – foreign policy decisions made to keep leaders in power • • • •
Britain – Argentina in the Faulklands “Wag the Dog” concept…. Clinton in Lybia? Bush in Iraq?
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Organizational Factors Bureaucratic Politics • Competition / Rivalry of various agencies • Inability / Unwillingness to share across bureaucratic boundaries • Standard Operating procedures
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Organizational Factors Bureaucratic Politics • Competition / Rivalry of various agencies • Inability / Unwillingness to share across bureaucratic boundaries • Standard Operating procedures • Tendency to inertia • Limited innovation
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Individual Level Individual leaders matter • Individual talents and limitations determine much of policy • Hitler, Chamberlain, Churchill, etc.
Leaders self-image, confidence: “political efficacy” Individual leaders are more influential in unusual, crisis situations • Bush 9/11, Roosevelt in Depression and WW II 11
Constraints on Policy-making Leaders project (and Realists expect) “Rationality” and states as “Unitary Actors”
Leaders face constraints on Rationality: • 2-level game • Maintain domestic influence and power • Promote desirable foreign policy 12
Constraints on Policy-making Complexity and limited processing ability may lead to: • Satisficing: Choosing an option that meets a minimally acceptable level of satisfaction rather than pressing on for the very best or optimal level of achievement
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Constraints on Policy-making Prospect Theory: • The idea that leaders level of risk tolerance is greater when avoiding a loss than when pursuing a gain. • Leaders will risk a huge loss to avoid a minor loss • Leaders will risk only minor losses in pursuit of even major gains
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Constraints on Policy-making Leaders focus on “Sunk Costs” • Rational decisions consider future looking costs/benefits • Sunk costs are gone and can’t be changed • Rational decisions disregard sunk costs • Making decisions based on sunk costs is “throwing good money after bad”
• Political leaders tend to fall into the sunk costs trap • “they must not have died in vain” 15
Constraints on Policy-making Group Think Newgroup Syndrome: Tendency to bandwagon with prominent, assertive thinkers
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Transnational Actors
Countries International organizations Multinational corporations Nongovernmental organizations Indigenous nationalities Terrorist networks Individuals
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Foreign Policy Analysis Bureaucracies Decision-making in organizations Psychological characteristics of leaders
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Most Foreign Policy Analysis Centers on the Executive Branch The head of government is responsible for making policy The country needs to have a single voice abroad Heads of government tend to make foreign policy because they control the executive branch of government
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Legislatures and Courts in Foreign Policy The “power of the purse” Courts’ jurisdiction generally limited to domestic affairs • “Pentagon Papers” 1971
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The Rational Action Model A logical attempt to achieve an identifiable goal Calculates costs and benefits What goal does this policy serve?
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Expected Utility Theory Payoffs and profitability Does not seek optimum solution, but the policy with best ratio of payoff/probability
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Bureaucracies in Foreign Policies Department of State and Department of Defense CIA and NSA Different bureaucracies have distinct, and often competing, interests.
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The Organizational Process Model Procedures influence decision content Standard operating procedures Efficiency is goal, difficulties when dealing with unique situations
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Small Group Decision Making Groupthink May be caused by need for consensus
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Individual Decision Making Perception and misperception Motivated and unmotivated bias Bounded rationality
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Attribution Theory Fundamental Attribution Bias • Naïve scientists • Pre-existing beliefs
Security dilemma
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Historical Lessons
Lessons of WW I Lessons of WW II Lessons of Korean War The Lessons of Vietnam Lessons of Iraq (1991) Lessons of Afghanistan Lessons of Iraq (2003) ??????? Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning
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Other Theories of Decision-Making Prospect Theory • Status quo Bias
Motivated Bias Cognitive Dissonance Two-level games Satisficing
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A “Funnel Vision” of the Influences on International Decision Making
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Policy Making as Rational Choice 1. 2. 3. 4.
Problem recognition and definition Goal selection Identification of alternatives Choice
Associated with realist/state as unitary actor • 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis • 2003 Iraq War Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning
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Factors Affecting Leadership Capacity
Personality Degree of control over foreign policy Sense of political efficacy Amount of available information Ability to deal with crises “Great person” versus zeitgeist debate
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Influences on Foreign Policy Choice International • Polarity and polarization • Geographic position
Domestic • Military capabilities • Economic conditions • Type of government
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Democratic Peace Theory Asserts that democracies are more peaceful than other states. Ironically, could provide a rationale for war, because a war that instills a democracy could reduce the chances of war in the long run.
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Interest Groups in Foreign Policy What do they want? • Money, protection, policy
How do they influence foreign policy? • Votes, money, lobbyists
To what extent do interest groups drive foreign policy? • Very influential in the U.S., varies in other states Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning
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Public Opinion 1. What does public opinion look like? 2. What effect should public opinion have on policy? 3. What effect does public opinion have on foreign policy? 4. What influences public opinion on foreign policy?
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The Media in Foreign Policy
Media in WW II? Korea? Media in Viet Nam? The businesses aspect of journalism Efforts to influence media coverage Media power: “the CNN effect”
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Three Models of Influence Rational action model Bureaucratic politics model Organizational process model
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Geographic Influence on Foreign Policy
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How Free is Your Country?
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Questions for Critical Thinking
(1 of 2)
1. What factors explain why George W. Bush did not take action when given intelligence warnings of impending terrorist attacks in the weeks prior to September 11, 2001?
2. What are the strengths and weaknesses of the history-making individuals model? Who qualifies as a history-making individual? 3. What factors explain why bureaucracies do not always produce the best options?
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Questions for Critical Thinking
(2 of 2)
4.
What are some contemporary examples of the importance of geopolitics?
5.
In what ways does the individual level of analysis affect foreign policy making?
6.
How does public opinion in the U.S. affect current foreign policy?
7.
What are the three most influential mass media in this country?
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Web Links The Cuban Missile Crisis Freedom, Democracy, Peace, Power, Democide, and War Freedom House The Presidents: PBS’s The American Experience
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