Decision Making and Foreign Policy

January 24, 2018 | Author: Anonymous | Category: Social Science, Psychology, Conformity
Share Embed Donate


Short Description

Download Decision Making and Foreign Policy...

Description

Chapter 4: Foreign Policy Decision Making

Rational Choice Perspective • Generally the model presented by leaders as how they decide on policy

 Assumes policy decisions are made carefully through well defined processes that pursue clearly defined goals.  Risks and benefits are measured and balanced  Optimal solutions are selected as policy 2

Policy Making as Rational Choice 1. 2. 3. 4.

Problem recognition and definition Goal selection Identification of alternatives Choice

 Associated with realist/state as unitary actor

Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning

3

Factors Impacting Foreign Policy  System Level Factors • Polarity • Degree of concentration of military/economic power among major states

• Polarization • How firmly minor states cluster around the major powers in alliances

• Geopolitics – Impact of geographic characteristics 4

Domestic Factors:  Military Capabilities • States actions are constrained by their military strength • No aggression w/out power projection capability • Boldness connected with military capability • Japan? Iran? Canada? US? Etc…

5

Domestic Factors:  Economic Capacity • Capable to supply, resupply a military? • Capable to sustain a siege

6

Domestic Factors:  Government type • Democracy • Autocratic rule • Is there a connection between type of government and foreign policy? • Democratic Peace? • Democratic weakness? • Autocratic aggressiveness?

7

Domestic Factors:  Rational political ambition hypothesis: • Leaders like to maintain or expand their role – foreign policy decisions made to keep leaders in power • • • •

Britain – Argentina in the Faulklands “Wag the Dog” concept…. Clinton in Lybia? Bush in Iraq?

8

Organizational Factors  Bureaucratic Politics • Competition / Rivalry of various agencies • Inability / Unwillingness to share across bureaucratic boundaries • Standard Operating procedures

9

Organizational Factors  Bureaucratic Politics • Competition / Rivalry of various agencies • Inability / Unwillingness to share across bureaucratic boundaries • Standard Operating procedures • Tendency to inertia • Limited innovation

10

Individual Level  Individual leaders matter • Individual talents and limitations determine much of policy • Hitler, Chamberlain, Churchill, etc.

 Leaders self-image, confidence: “political efficacy”  Individual leaders are more influential in unusual, crisis situations • Bush 9/11, Roosevelt in Depression and WW II 11

Constraints on Policy-making  Leaders project (and Realists expect) “Rationality” and states as “Unitary Actors”

 Leaders face constraints on Rationality: • 2-level game • Maintain domestic influence and power • Promote desirable foreign policy 12

Constraints on Policy-making  Complexity and limited processing ability may lead to: • Satisficing: Choosing an option that meets a minimally acceptable level of satisfaction rather than pressing on for the very best or optimal level of achievement

13

Constraints on Policy-making  Prospect Theory: • The idea that leaders level of risk tolerance is greater when avoiding a loss than when pursuing a gain. • Leaders will risk a huge loss to avoid a minor loss • Leaders will risk only minor losses in pursuit of even major gains

14

Constraints on Policy-making  Leaders focus on “Sunk Costs” • Rational decisions consider future looking costs/benefits • Sunk costs are gone and can’t be changed • Rational decisions disregard sunk costs • Making decisions based on sunk costs is “throwing good money after bad”

• Political leaders tend to fall into the sunk costs trap • “they must not have died in vain” 15

Constraints on Policy-making  Group Think  Newgroup Syndrome: Tendency to bandwagon with prominent, assertive thinkers

16

Transnational Actors       

Countries International organizations Multinational corporations Nongovernmental organizations Indigenous nationalities Terrorist networks Individuals

Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning

17

Foreign Policy Analysis  Bureaucracies  Decision-making in organizations  Psychological characteristics of leaders

Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning

18

Most Foreign Policy Analysis Centers on the Executive Branch  The head of government is responsible for making policy  The country needs to have a single voice abroad  Heads of government tend to make foreign policy because they control the executive branch of government

Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning

19

Legislatures and Courts in Foreign Policy  The “power of the purse”  Courts’ jurisdiction generally limited to domestic affairs • “Pentagon Papers” 1971

Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning

20

The Rational Action Model  A logical attempt to achieve an identifiable goal  Calculates costs and benefits  What goal does this policy serve?

Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning

21

Expected Utility Theory  Payoffs and profitability  Does not seek optimum solution, but the policy with best ratio of payoff/probability

Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning

22

Bureaucracies in Foreign Policies  Department of State and Department of Defense  CIA and NSA  Different bureaucracies have distinct, and often competing, interests.

Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning

23

The Organizational Process Model  Procedures influence decision content  Standard operating procedures  Efficiency is goal, difficulties when dealing with unique situations

Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning

24

Small Group Decision Making  Groupthink  May be caused by need for consensus

Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning

25

Individual Decision Making  Perception and misperception  Motivated and unmotivated bias  Bounded rationality

Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning

26

Attribution Theory  Fundamental Attribution Bias • Naïve scientists • Pre-existing beliefs

 Security dilemma

Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning

27

Historical Lessons        

Lessons of WW I Lessons of WW II Lessons of Korean War The Lessons of Vietnam Lessons of Iraq (1991) Lessons of Afghanistan Lessons of Iraq (2003) ??????? Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning

28

Other Theories of Decision-Making  Prospect Theory • Status quo Bias

   

Motivated Bias Cognitive Dissonance Two-level games Satisficing

Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning

29

A “Funnel Vision” of the Influences on International Decision Making

Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning

30

Policy Making as Rational Choice 1. 2. 3. 4.

Problem recognition and definition Goal selection Identification of alternatives Choice

 Associated with realist/state as unitary actor • 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis • 2003 Iraq War Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning

31

Factors Affecting Leadership Capacity      

Personality Degree of control over foreign policy Sense of political efficacy Amount of available information Ability to deal with crises “Great person” versus zeitgeist debate

Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning

32

Influences on Foreign Policy Choice  International • Polarity and polarization • Geographic position

 Domestic • Military capabilities • Economic conditions • Type of government

Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning

33

Democratic Peace Theory  Asserts that democracies are more peaceful than other states.  Ironically, could provide a rationale for war, because a war that instills a democracy could reduce the chances of war in the long run.

Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning

34

Interest Groups in Foreign Policy  What do they want? • Money, protection, policy

 How do they influence foreign policy? • Votes, money, lobbyists

 To what extent do interest groups drive foreign policy? • Very influential in the U.S., varies in other states Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning

35

Public Opinion 1. What does public opinion look like? 2. What effect should public opinion have on policy? 3. What effect does public opinion have on foreign policy? 4. What influences public opinion on foreign policy?

Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning

36

The Media in Foreign Policy     

Media in WW II? Korea? Media in Viet Nam? The businesses aspect of journalism Efforts to influence media coverage Media power: “the CNN effect”

Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning

37

Three Models of Influence  Rational action model  Bureaucratic politics model  Organizational process model

Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning

38

Geographic Influence on Foreign Policy

Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning

39

How Free is Your Country?

Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning

40

Questions for Critical Thinking

(1 of 2)

1. What factors explain why George W. Bush did not take action when given intelligence warnings of impending terrorist attacks in the weeks prior to September 11, 2001?

2. What are the strengths and weaknesses of the history-making individuals model? Who qualifies as a history-making individual? 3. What factors explain why bureaucracies do not always produce the best options?

Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning

41

Questions for Critical Thinking

(2 of 2)

4.

What are some contemporary examples of the importance of geopolitics?

5.

In what ways does the individual level of analysis affect foreign policy making?

6.

How does public opinion in the U.S. affect current foreign policy?

7.

What are the three most influential mass media in this country?

Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning

42

Web Links  The Cuban Missile Crisis  Freedom, Democracy, Peace, Power, Democide, and War  Freedom House  The Presidents: PBS’s The American Experience

Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning

43

View more...

Comments

Copyright � 2017 NANOPDF Inc.
SUPPORT NANOPDF