Decision Making and Foreign Policy

Chapter 6: International Decision Making

Transnational Actors       

Countries International organizations Multinational corporations Nongovernmental organizations Indigenous nationalities Terrorist networks Individuals

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Foreign Policy Analysis  Bureaucracies  Decision-making in organizations  Psychological characteristics of leaders

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Most Foreign Policy Analysis Centers on the Executive Branch  The head of government is responsible for making policy  The country needs to have a single voice abroad  Heads of government tend to make foreign policy because they control the executive branch of government

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Legislatures and Courts in Foreign Policy  The “power of the purse”  Courts’ jurisdiction generally limited to domestic affairs • “Pentagon Papers” 1971

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The Rational Action Model  A logical attempt to achieve an identifiable goal  Calculates costs and benefits  What goal does this policy serve?

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Expected Utility Theory  Payoffs and profitability  Does not seek optimum solution, but the policy with best ratio of payoff/probability

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Bureaucracies in Foreign Policies  Department of State and Department of Defense  CIA and NSA  Different bureaucracies have distinct, and often competing, interests.

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The Organizational Process Model  Procedures influence decision content  Standard operating procedures  Efficiency is goal, difficulties when dealing with unique situations

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Small Group Decision Making  Groupthink  May be caused by need for consensus

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Individual Decision Making  Perception and misperception  Motivated and unmotivated bias  Bounded rationality

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Questions for Discussion 1. What foreign policy model has been demonstrated by the U.S. response to Darfur? 2. What does George Clooney hope to accomplish? Has he been successful? 3. Could neighboring countries make a difference here? Why or why not? 4. Has the United Nations been successful in Darfur peacekeeping?

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Attribution Theory  Fundamental Attribution Bias • Naïve scientists • Pre-existing beliefs

 Security dilemma

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Historical Lessons  The Lessons of Munich  The Lessons of Vietnam  Future Lessons of Iraq?

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Other Theories of Decision-Making  Prospect Theory • Status quo Bias

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Motivated Bias Cognitive Dissonance Bolstering Two-level games Satisficing Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning

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A “Funnel Vision” of the Influences on International Decision Making

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Policy Making as Rational Choice 1. 2. 3. 4.

Problem recognition and definition Goal selection Identification of alternatives Choice

 Associated with realist/state as unitary actor • 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis • 2003 Iraq War Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning

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Factors Affecting Leadership Capacity      

Personality Degree of control over foreign policy Sense of political efficacy Amount of available information Ability to deal with crises “Great person” versus zeitgeist debate

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Influences on Foreign Policy Choice  International • Polarity and polarization • Geographic position

 Domestic • Military capabilities • Economic conditions • Type of government

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Democratic Peace Theory  Asserts that democracies are more peaceful than other states.  Ironically, could provide a rationale for war, because a war that instills a democracy could reduce the chances of war in the long run.

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Two Versions  The Simple Democratic Peace Model  The Dyadic View • Structural argument • Normative argument • Institutional argument

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Zone of Peace  European Union (EU)  North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

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Interest Groups in Foreign Policy  What do they want? • Money, protection, policy

 How do they influence foreign policy? • Votes, money, lobbyists

 To what extent do interest groups drive foreign policy? • Very influential in the U.S., varies in other states Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning

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Public Opinion 1. What does public opinion look like? 2. What effect should public opinion have on policy? 3. What effect does public opinion have on foreign policy? 4. What influences public opinion on foreign policy?

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The Media in Foreign Policy  The businesses aspect of journalism  Efforts to influence media coverage  Media power: “the CNN effect”

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Three Models of Influence  Rational action model  Bureaucratic politics model  Organizational process model

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Geographic Influence on Foreign Policy

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How Free is Your Country?

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Questions for Critical Thinking

(1 of 2)

1. What factors explain why George W. Bush did not take action when given intelligence warnings of impending terrorist attacks in the weeks prior to September 11, 2001?

2. What are the strengths and weaknesses of the history-making individuals model? Who qualifies as a history-making individual? 3. What factors explain why bureaucracies do not always produce the best options?

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Questions for Critical Thinking

(2 of 2)

4.

What are some contemporary examples of the importance of geopolitics?

5.

In what ways does the individual level of analysis affect foreign policy making?

6.

How does public opinion in the U.S. affect current foreign policy?

7.

What are the three most influential mass media in this country?

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Web Links  The Cuban Missile Crisis  Freedom, Democracy, Peace, Power, Democide, and War  Freedom House  The Presidents: PBS’s The American Experience

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