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America’s Changing Racial Diversity From The Bottom Up William H. Frey The Brookings Institution www.brookings.edu/experts/freyw
US: Population by Age: 2010 and 2050
450,000 400,000
20. % 350,000 300,000
65+ 13%
250,000
45-54
200,000
20-44
150,000
Under 20
100,000 50,000 0
2010
Source: William H. Frey analysis
2050
US: Population by Race: 2010 and 2050 500,000 450,000 400,000 46%
350,000 300,000
White Black
250,000 200,000
64%
Asian
150,000
Hispani c Other
100,000 50,000 0 2010
Source: William H. Frey analysis
2050
US Growth by Age 2000-10 60
50
50 40 30
19
20 10
18
11
12
3
2
0 -10
-9
-20 0- 14
15-24
25-34
Source: William H. Frey analysis
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
75+
Median Ages of Race-Ethnic Groups 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
41 34
30
27 20
Whites
Asians
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Blacks
Hispanics
2+Races
Race Ethnic Shares 2010 Population
2000-10 Growth 8.3
1.9 4.7
16.3 13.7 55.5
12.2
63.7
15.9 5.0
White Hawaii
Black Othr Race
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Am Indian 2+ Races
Asian Hispanic
2000-2010 Change in Child Population by Race-Ethnicity 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 -2,000,000 -4,000,000 -6,000,000
White
Black
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Am Indian
Asian
2+ Races Hispanic
Children : 2015-2040 100% 80% 60% 40% 20%
53
51
49
46
44
42
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
0%
White
Black
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Asian/other
Hispanic
Contributions to Labor Force Population 2010 -2040 8 6
Millions
4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 2011-15
2016-20
Hispanic Source: William H. Frey analysis
2021-25
Black
2026-30
2031-35
Asian
2036-40
White
Contributions to Labor Force 2010-2020 (in millions) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6
9.6
2
3.5
-5
White Source: William H. Frey analysis
Black
Asian/Other
Hispanic
Labor Force Ages: 2015-2040 100% 80% 60% 40%
62
60
57
54
52
50
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
20% 0%
White
Black
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Asian/other
Hispanic
HS Dropout Rates: Age 16-24 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
34.3
11.5
11.5 6.1
Hispanic Foreign Born
Hispanic Native Born
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Blacks
NCES, US Dept of Education
Whites
3.0
Asians
College Enrollment Rate: Age 18-24 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
64.6 45.7 35.9
35.3
Hispanic Native Born
Blacks
15.5
Hispanic Foreign Born
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Pew Hispanic Center
Whites
Asians
Education by Race-Ethnicity 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
10
17
18
31 50
52
Hispanic Foreign Born
22
18
Hispanic Native Born
Black
Less then HS Source: William H. Frey analysis
HS grad
10
14
White
Asian
Some College
Pew Hispanic Center
College Grads
Hispanic Concentrations 2010
Percent of County Population 25% and above 10.0% to 24.9% 5.0 to 9.9% Under 5% Source: William H. Frey analysis
Data source: William H. Frey analysis of Census2010
Black Concentrations 2010
Percent of County Population 25% and above 10.0% to 24.9% 5.0% to 9.9% UnderWilliam 5% Source: H. Frey analysis
Data source: William H. Frey analysis of Census2010
State Growth in Child Population, 2000-10
Growth 5% and over Growth under 5% Decline under 5% Decline 5% and over
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Under age 18
Percent Minority Children, 2010
GT 50% 40% - 50% 25% - 40%
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Under 25%
Percent Children with Immigrant Parents 60 50
51%
40
35%
35%
34%
32%
30
31%
31% 23%
20 10 0
CA
NY
NV
Ist Gen Source: William H. Frey analysis
AZ
FL
NJ
TX
2nd Gen
US
Children Speaking Other than English
Source: William Source: WilliamH. H.Frey Frey analysis analysis
GT 20% 10% - 20% 6% - 10% Under 6%
* Ages 5 - 17
US Growth by Age 2000-10 60
50
50 40 30
19
20 10
18
11
12
3
2
0 -10
-9
-20 0- 14
15-24
25-34
Source: William H. Frey analysis
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
75+
Median Ages for States, 2010
40 and over 38 to 40 36 to 38
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Below 36
Senior Population Shifts: 3 Decades (1000s) 12,000
Young Elderly
Old Elderly
(65 - 74)
(75 +)
10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0
2000 - 2010 Source: William H. Frey analysis
2010 - 2020
2020- 2030
Projected Age 65+ Growth 2000-30
140% & above 100% -139% 70% -99% under 69%
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Share of all US Households 2000 and 2010
60 50
51.7
48.4
40 30
23.5
20
20.2
10 0 Married Couples 2000 Source: William H. Frey analysis
Married Couples with Children 2010
Married Couples as Share of All Households 70
62 61
55
60
52
50
55
49
40
32
30
28
20 10 0 Asians
Whites 2000
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Hispanics
Blacks 2010
Projected Race-Ethnic Shares, 2010-30 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Children
54
50
46
2010
2020
2030
white
Black
Source: William H. Frey analysis
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Seniors
80
76
71
2010
2020
2030
Asian/Other
Hispanic
Cultural Generation Gaps Difference in White Percent: Seniors minus Children
25 and above 20 to 25 15 to 20 Below 15
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Useful Websites www.CensusScope.org/2010 Census www.frey-demographer.org
Source: William H. Frey analysis
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