EEAP slides for high

STRATOSPHERIC OZONE DEPLETION OZONE DEPLETING SUBSTANCES

Climate effects (atmospheric circulation)

Report of the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel

26th Meeting of the Parties to the United Nations Montreal Protocol 16-21 November 2014 Paris, France Co-chairs: Prof Janet Bornman (Aus), Prof Min Shao (China), Prof Nigel Paul (UK) HUMAN HEALTH

CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

AIR & WATER CHEMISTRY

TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries)

EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT

Report of the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel THE 2014 ASSESSMENT REPORTS SIGNIFICANT SCIENTIFIC ADVANCES IN UNDERSTANDING THE MECHANISMS BY WHICH STRATOSPHERIC OZONE DEPLETION CAN AFFECT HUMANS, OTHER ORGANISMS, AND THE PHYSICAL AND CHEMICAL PROCESSES OF THE ENVIRONMENT, PRIMARILY THROUGH RESPONSES TO UV RADIATION. 44 authors/co-authors from 17 countries, and 45 reviewers.

THIS SUMMARY WILL FOCUS ON THE MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS Report assessed 1600 researchOF papers, covering subjectON areas from RELEVANT TO THE EFFECTS OZONE DEPLETION PEOPLE cancer to construction polymers, andADVANCES) from marine AND biology ECOSYSTEMS (NOT MECHANISTIC phytoplankton to global changes in UV radiation.

HUMAN HEALTH

CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

AIR & WATER CHEMISTRY

TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries)

EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT

STRATOSPHERIC OZONE DEPLETION OZONE DEPLETING SUBSTANCES

Climate effects (atmospheric circulation)

INCREASED ULTRAVIOLETB (UV-B) RADIATION

HUMAN HEALTH

CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

AIR & WATER CHEMISTRY

UV-B radiation = 280-315nm

TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries)

EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT

CHANGES IN UV-B RADIATION WITH THE SUCCESSFUL MONTREAL PROTOCOL

With few exceptions, changes in UV-B since the 1990s are small, and due less to the effects of ozone depletion than to other factors (cloud; snow and ice cover).

Arctic ozone depletion Large short-term in spring 2011 led to increases in UV-B have measured short-term been measured at increases (80-160%) in some locations in UV-B in Alaska, response to episodic Canada, Greenland & decreases of ozone at Scandinavia, and high latitudes, modelled increases including the Northern (15-25%) at lower hemisphere. latitudes.

CHANGES IN UV-B RADIATION WITHOUT THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL st century UV levels Without Montreal Protocol, by the end of 21the Now a the body of published research modelling changes in UV st century WITHOUT around the globe would exceeded, often levels radiation that would havehave occurred over the 21substantially, previously experienced even in the most extreme environments. successful control of ODS.

WITH MONTREAL PROTOCOL

Values over 11 are considered extreme

WITHOUT MONTREAL PROTOCOL

Maximum UVI without ozone depletion is approx. 25

The calculated clear-sky UV index for November 2065 in the “expected future” (with the Montreal Protocol) compared with that in the “world avoided” (with no Montreal Protocol). From Newman and McKenzie, 2011

Human health and exposure to solar UV radiation INCREASED ULTRAVIOLETB (UV-B) RADIATION

HUMAN HEALTH

CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

AIR & WATER CHEMISTRY

TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries)

EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT

Human health and exposure to solar UV radiation Damaging effects of too little UV

Damaging effects of too much UV

RESEARCH OVER THE LAST 30 YEARS HAS CLARIFIED THAT DAMAGE TO HUMAN HEALTH CAN RESULT FROM EITHER TOO MUCH OR TOO LITTLE UV RADIATION WITH THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL (NOW) THE BALANCE BETWEEN THESE CONTRASTING EFFECTS OF UV IS LARGELY DETERMINED BY PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES AND BEHAVIOUR

Human health and exposure to solar UV radiation With the Montreal protocol, changing behaviour with regard to sun exposure by many fair-skinned populations has probably had a more significant effect on human health than increasing UV-B irradiance due to ozone depletion.

Strategies to avoid over-exposure to solar UV radiation remain important for public health, but should aim to balance the harmful and beneficial effects of sun exposure. WITH THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL (NOW)

Human health and exposure to solar UV radiation Damaging effects of too little UV

Damaging Damaging effects of effects of UV too too much much UV

OZONE DEPLETION PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES AND BEHAVIOUR

WITHOUT THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL (WORLD AVOIDED) LARGE INCREASES IN UV, SO THAT THE DAMAGING EFFECTS OF TOO MUCH UV BECOME DOMINANT.

Human health and exposure to solar UV radiation Damaging effects of too much UV SHORT TERM

LONG-TERM

SKIN

Sunburn

Increased skin-cancers Basal cell & squamous cell carcinomas Malignant melanoma

EYES

Inflammation (photoconjunctivitis)

Increased cataract and other eye diseases

IMMUNE SYSTEM: immune suppression leading to increased susceptibility to infection, reduced response to vaccinations

Human health and exposure to solar UV radiation Percentage increase in annual UV dose in 2030 in the “world avoided” (with no Montreal Protocol), compared with the present day. From van Dijk et al., 2013

WITHOUT THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL (WORLD AVOIDED)

Human health and exposure to solar UV radiation Models can, necessarily, only estimate skin cancers “world avoided”, and further refinement is required but the “ballpark”, estimate of two million fewer cases of skin cancer a year by 2030 indicates the scale of the health benefits of the Montreal Protocol.

Total number of new cases of skin cancer per million people per year avoided by the Montreal Protocol in the year 2030. From van Dijk et al., 2013

WITHOUT THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL (WORLD AVOIDED)

HUMAN HEALTH

INCREASED ULTRAVIOLETB (UV-B) RADIATION

CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

AIR & WATER CHEMISTRY

OZONE-DEPELTIONRELATED CHANGES IN CLIMATE

EFFECTS DUE TO ODS REPLACEMENTS

Effects of ozone depletion on ecosystems

TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries)

EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENTs

Effects of ozone depletion on ecosystems No new negative HFCs degrade to environmental effects produce triof the substitutes for fluoroacetic acid the ozone depleting (TFA) which substances or their accumulates in water breakdown-products bodies. have been identified EFFECTS DUE TO ODS REPLACEMENTS

No new evidence that predicted TFA accumulation will pose a significant threat to aquatic ecosystems.

HUMAN HEALTH

CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

AIR & WATER CHEMISTRY

TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries)

EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENTs

Effects of ozone depletion on ecosystems Improved understanding of: • role of solar UV in air quality (e.g. aerosols, ground-level ozone) and water chemistry (e.g. heavy metals), and that such changes may affect ecosystems. • that solar UV radiation has significant direct effects on many organisms and environmental processes, and of the mechanistic basis for such responses. HUMAN HEALTH

CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

AIR & WATER CHEMISTRY

INCREASED INCREASED ULTRAVIOLETULTRAVIOLET-B (UV-B) BRADIATION (UV-B) RADIATION

TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries)

EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENTs

Effects of ozone depletion on ecosystems New understanding highlights the vulnerability of organisms and environmental processes (including food production) to very large increases in UV caused by uncontrolled stratospheric ozone depletion. However, there have been no “world-avoided” models for these effects, so their magnitude in a world where the Montreal Protocol had not controlled ozone-depleting substances has not been quantified. WITHOUT THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL (WORLD AVOIDED)

Effects of ozone depletion on ecosystems With a few exceptions, changes in UV-B irradiances due to factors such as cloud, snow and ice cover, and UV penetration in to water bodies have a more significant effect on ecosystems than UV changes due to ozone depletion over the last three decades. Southern hemisphere ecosystems have responded to severe ozone depletion there, partly due to increased UV radiation, partly due to climatemediated effects. WITH THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL (NOW)

ANTARCTIC STRATOSPHERIC OZONE DEPLETION ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION PATTERNS REGIONAL CLIMATE TEMPERATURE

HUMAN HEALTH

WIND

CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

RAINFALL

AIR & WATER CHEMISTRY

OZONE-DEPELTIONRELATED CHANGES IN CLIMATE

Effects of ozone depletion on ecosystems CHANGES IN CLIMATE DUE TO OZONEDEPLETION

TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries)

EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT

Effects of ozone depletion on ecosystems Widespread climate-mediated ecological changes in the S hemisphere correlated with the Antarctic ozone “holes” since the 1980s. Decreased tree growth due to drought. Rapid changes in phyto-plankton communities

Slower moss growth & changes in lake biodiversity Increased tree growth in southern Alps.

EEAP REPORT OVERVIEW • The success of Montreal Protocol in preventing large, wide-scale increases in UV radiation has now been quantified through modelling “the world avoided”. • Because large increases in UV have been prevented, major effects of ozone depletion on human health have been avoided. The scale of damage to health in the “world avoided” is beginning to be quantified. • Major effects of ozone depletion on most ecosystems have also been prevented, but the effects of Antarctic depletion on regional climates is having measurable impacts in the S hemisphere, even outside Antarctica. Co-chairs: Prof Janet Bornman (Aus), Prof Min Shao (China), Prof Nigel Paul (UK)