Global Implications of Latino Population Growth

GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS OF LATINO POPULATION GROWTH AND THE SEARCH FOR COMMON GROUND Oregon State University October 9, 2012

U.S. Hispanic Consumer –Global View (as of 2012)

United States ($12.2 trillion)

Russia

China

($1.2T)

($3.5 trillion)

Brazil ($2.0T)

Source: World Bank, Selig Center for Economic Growth and LDC Calculations Note: Nominal GDP, not adjusted for purchasing power parity

U.S. Hispanics

India ($1.3T)

($1.2T)

Comparative GDP/capita for U.S. Hispanics GDP per capita as of 2010 (est.)* OECD Average: $39,997

BRIC Average: $8,151

(10th) (19th)

Source: World Bank, U.S. Census, Selig Center for Economic Growth and LDC Calculations. * - Data for US Hispanics based on 2012 data.

Trade with Mexico: Exports Create U.S. Jobs Top 3 U.S. Export Markets ($ in billions)

 Mexico is our 2nd largest market for exports and the U.S. is the largest global market for Mexican exports  In 2011, U.S. exports to Mexico grew by $34 billion, the biggest dollar increase in U.S. exports to any market worldwide  Approximately 6 million U.S. jobs depend on trade with Mexico  “The growing middle class that is fast becoming Mexico’s majority is buying more U.S. goods than ever…” – Washington Post

Source: International Trade Administration (goods trade) and Bureau of Economic Analysis (services trade) and “Middle-class Mexicans snap up more products ‘Made in USA’”, Washington Post, September 9, 2012.

Trade with Latin America vs. China Population

Total Trade (Exports + Imports)

(in millions)

($ in billions)

$847 $191

$488 $31 $656

$457

China

Forecast GDP Growth

Latin America Goods

Services

8.0%

3.8%

China

At the current pace of projected economic growth, U.S. trade with China would not overcome Latin America until…

2024

In order to match trade with Latin America by 2020, China would need annual growth of…

12.3%

Latin America

Source: World Bank (population), Economist Intelligence Unit (GDP growth), International Trade Administration (goods trade) and Bureau of Economic Analysis (services trade)

THE SEARCH FOR COMMON GROUND

Hispanics Widely Misunderstood… 33%

believe >50% “illegal”

Reality:

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Reality:

overestimate

only 17% of Hispanics are in the country illegally

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75%

80%

…of non-Hispanics associate Hispanics with NOT speaking English

 Hispanics learning English at same rates as past immigrants  Nearly all 2nd generation Hispanics have mastered English

Source: Hill & Knowlton Strategies, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, and the Center for American Progress.

…Leading to Negative Stereotypes

Source: Hill & Knowlton Strategies, 2012.

Despite Some Positive Associations… Non-Hispanics also think or associate Hispanics with…

Source: Hill & Knowlton Strategies, 2012 and Pew Hispanic Center.

And Latinos believe…

…Media Coverage Reinforces the Negative

 Among Hispanic issues covered by the media, immigration

and the U.S.-Mexican border has the highest volume of negative coverage, with nearly twice the volume of the leading positive issue (H+K)

Hispanics’ economic contributions, work ethic and religious faith comprises less than half the volume of media coverage on the leading  Positive

media

coverage

on

negative topic, immigration and the U.S.-Mexican border

Source: Hill & Knowlton Strategies, 2012.

Latino Growth in Key Demos Projection of Latinos Age 18-34

Projection of Latinos Age 18-49

(in millions)

(in millions)

(24%)

(26%)

(22%)

(24%)

(21%)

(22%) (20%) (19%)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Census, Projections of the National Population, 2009

(19%) (17%)

Progress on Key Metrics Metric

Example

Value

Banking

Chairman or CEO, Top 10 banks by assets

N/A

0%

Academic Institutions

President, top 50 undergraduate institutions

University of Texas system

1 chancellor

Hollywood Studios

Chief / Head top 10 studios by box office revenue

N/A

none

Top Foundations

President and Trustees, top 10 foundations by assets

Luis Ubiñas (Ford Foundation)

1 president 5% trustees

Silicon Valley

Chairman or CEO, Top 10 tech companies by revenue

N/A

0%

Fortune 100

CEO of Fortune 100 companies

George Paz (Express Scripts)

1 CEO

Source: Federal Reserve, U.S. News and World Report, School websites, Box Office Mojo, Studio websites, The Foundation Center, various Foundation websites, Fortune and The Wall Street Journal

3.7% Fortune 100 board seats are held by Hispanics

3.0% Fortune 500

1.5% Fortune 1000 Source: Hispanic Association on Corporate Responsibility 2007 Corporate Governance Study; U.S. News & World Report; Alliance for Board Diversity Report, July 2011, and Korn/Ferry International

Progress of AZ-style Legislation

Original bill amended in response to successful court challenge

Tougher measures subsequently failed

Enacted (5) Pending (9) Failed

Source: Based on data from the National Conference on State Legislatures, 2011-2012 and the National Council of La Raza

(15)

Conclusion  Latinos are driving economic and population growth in the U.S.  On the global stage, the U.S. Hispanic market represents the largest highgrowth market opportunity  The level of trade between the U.S. and Latin America requires a refocusing of foreign policy  Latinos are still grossly underrepresented in media – this lack of representation leads to negative perceptions about Latinos  However, we have A LOT of work remaining on elevating Latinos to the leadership ranks of business, finance, technology, academia and politics