How Asians View A Rising China

January 5, 2018 | Author: Anonymous | Category: Social Science, Political Science
Share Embed Donate


Short Description

Download How Asians View A Rising China...

Description

How East Asians View A Rising China: Implications for Taiwan Yun-han Chu Nottingham, March 11, 2014 1

Competition over Soft Power  Entering the 21st century more countries are

increasingly placing the emphasis on the projection of benign country images. Such projections are critical not only for building partnerships for strengthening economic cooperation and addressing mutual security concerns but also for gaining access to new markets.  The ancient Chinese thinkers had also long upheld the motto of "making the people near-by satisfied and the people from afar to join you"(近悅遠來)as the guiding principle of engaging other peoples.  However, it is only in the recent decade that the concept of "soft power" -- ability to produce outcomes through persuasion and attraction rather than coercion or payment -- has entered into the lexicons of Chinese policy makers.

China’s Effort of National Image Management  Over the recent decade, Chinese policy elite

has increasingly recognized that for a rising power like China soft power and national image management are essential aspects of its foreign policy agenda.  Hu Jingtao in his official address told the 17th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party that China needed to enhance “the soft power of its culture.” 3

China’s Charm Offense Over the last decade Chinese government has invested billions of dollars to cultivate and upgrade its soft power resources.  Confucius Institutes around the world  A 24-hour CCTV Cable News Channel  The 2008 Beijing Olympics  The 2010 Shanghai Expo  Boao Forum for Asia

4

Growing Popular Awareness  There has been growing interest among ordinary

citizens throughout Asia in developments in China.  China-related topics top Asian agendas and fill television programs and newspaper pages.  Most Asian people were tremendously impressed by China's miraculous economic growth and amazed by the fact that China’s GDP has passed Japan in 2010 and now ranks the second largest economy in the world.  In particular, China suddenly emerged as the buyer of the last resort after the 2008-09 subprime loans crisis and the ensuing global financial crisis. 5

How China Is Perceived By Asians?  It is important to look at the story at the

receivers’ side as Joe Nye correctly pointed out that soft power depends on willing interpreters and receivers.  While Asian people have increasingly been reckoned with the China’s political and economic might, they are not necessarily persuaded by its stated foreign policy objectives and strategic intention, and much less attracted by its political system. 6

Very Little Empirical Data  Pew Global Attitudes Survey is the only cross-

national survey that collects public opinion data on people's image about China on regular basis. However, the Pew Survey has so far covered only a few East Asian countries and in its recent survey of 2012 only Japan and China  A recent BBC Global Scan poll on how the China's influence in the world is viewed by other countries also only covered China, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia. 7

Asian Barometer Survey  The Asian Barometer Survey fills up an important

void in our understanding of the phenomenon of China’s rise and its implications for policy makers.  It was administered in thirteen East Asian countries and territories on the basis of countrywide probability sampling and face-to-face interview.  It can answer to what extend China’s growing economic influence and international stature might have been translated into greater soft power. 8

www.asianbarometer.org

9

Asian Barometer Third Wave Survey Schedule Period

Country

Sample Size

1

Taiwan

January-February 2010

1592

2

Philippines

March 2010

1200

3

Mongolia

April -May 2010

1210

4

Singapore

April-August 2010

1000

5

Vietnam

September-October 2010

1191

6

Thailand

August-December 2010

1512

7

Korea

May 2011

1207

8

Indonesia

May 2011

1550

9

Mainland China

July-October 2011

3473

10

Malaysia

October-November 2011

1214

11

Japan

December 2011

1880

12

Cambodia

February-March 2012

1200

13

Hong Kong

September 2012

1103

10

Table 1. Which country has the most influence in Asia now? Country

China

United States

Vietnam

69%

16%

Taiwan

67%

21%

Mongolia

66%

13%

Japan

61%

29%

Singapore

60%

28%

Korea

56%

32%

China

44%

25%

Thailand

42%

44%

Malaysia

36%

44%

Cambodia

26%

58%

Indonesia

23%

41%

Philippines

17%

66%

Southeast Asia’s Average

39%

42%

East Asia’s Average

47%

35%

Data source: ABS Wave III (2010-2012)

11

Table 2. Which country will have the most influence in ten years? Country

China

United States

Korea

83%

9%

Taiwan

82%

10%

Singapore

73%

13%

Mongolia

71%

9%

Vietnam

70%

16%

Japan

65%

13%

China

59%

11%

Thailand

56%

31%

Malaysia

44%

26%

Cambodia

43%

34%

Indonesia

31%

33%

Philippines

17%

65%

Southeast Asia’s Average

48%

31%

East Asia’s Average

58%

22%

12

13

14

Figure 3: Positive Imange of China: Comparing Different Surveys 120

97

100

95

97

95

95

94

86 80

63

59

58

53

60

51

26 19 10

Indonesia

48 38

33

40

Korea

58

41

20

Japan

67

China 34

26 15

14

0

ABS 201012

BBC 2012

Pew 2008

Pew 2009

Pew 2010

Pew 2011

Pew 2012

15

Three Competing Explanations  Geopolitical and Security Consideration  Military threat  Territorial dispute  Competition over scare resources  Economic Consideration:  Opportunity vs. Challenge  Compatible vs. Competitive  Interdependence vs. Dependency  Ideological and Cultural Consideration  Convergence vs. divergence over core values 16  Cultural affinity vs. cultural distance

Democratic Distance 4.000

Perceived Democrati Distance

3.500

Japan

Taiwan

3.000 2.500 Korea 2.000 1.500

Malaysia Singapore Cambodia

1.000 .500

Thailand

Mongolia

Indonesia Philippines China

.000 .000

.100

.200

.300

.400

.500

.600

Proportion of Positive View of China

.700

.800

.900 17

Cultural Distance Average Score of Social Traditionalism

.150 China Cambodia Singapore

.100 .050

Philippines

.000

Malaysia Indonesia

-.050 Mongolia

Thailand Taiwan

-.100 Korea -.150 Japan -.200 -.250 .000

.100

.200

.300

.400

.500

.600

Proportion of Positive View of China

.700

.800

.900 18

Economic Evaluation .800

Positive Evaluation of Economic Condition

China .700 .600 Singapore .500

Malaysia Cambodia

.400 Philippines

.300 Indonesia

.200

Taiwan Thailand

.100

Mongolia Japan

Korea

.000 .000

.100

.200

.300

.400

.500

.600

.700

.800

.900

-.100

Positive Perception of China's Influence

19

Support for Economic Openness

Support for Economic Openness

5.500

China

5.000 Japan

Singapore Taiwan

4.500

4.000

Malaysia

Korea

Philippines

Indonesia

Vietnam 3.500

Cambodia Mongolia Thailand

3.000 .000

.100

.200

.300

.400

.500

.600

.700

Positive Perception of China's Influence on the Region

.800 20

Table 3: Correlation Analysis Viewing China's Impact on the Region as Positive

Viewing China's Influence on Our Country as Positive

Rubric of Cultural Explanation 1. Perceived Democratic Distance

-.149**

-.180**

2. Social Traditionalism

.137**

.177**

3. Liberal Democratic Values

-.106**

-.184**

4. Support for Democracy

.029**

.028**

1. Support for Economic Openness

.087**

.049**

2. Evaluating Country's Economic Condition

.238**

.305**

3. Subjective Household Income

.075**

.066**

4. Currently Employed

.048**

.043**

1. Age

-.021*

-.020*

2. Education

-.055**

-.117**

Rubric of Economic Explanation

Social Background 21

Economic Explanation  At the individual level, the most important

variable predicating a respondent’s view on the rise of China is his/her assessment of the overall economic condition.  People who give an upbeat assessment of the overall economy are more likely to view China as a benign superpower and consider its influence as largely positive.  People who are unhappy with the overall economy tend to view China’s rise in a negative way. In a sense, people tend to blame China for their country's economic malaise. 22

Political Values Matter As Well  East Asians’ view on China’s rise is also driven

by one’s political perception and beliefs.  People who think that their country’s level of democratic level is significantly more advanced than that of China tend to view China’s rise in a negative way.  People who are less conscious of the difference in political system between China and their own country are more likely to consider China as a benign superpower and evaluate China’s influence in a positive way. 23

Conclusion: Widespread Recognition of China’s Rise  The rise of China has been recognized by

the great majority of East Asians.  Its growing influence in the region is more intensively felt by countries that are geographically or culturally proximate to China.  At the same time, there is the phenomenon of “too close for comfort”. 24

Southeast Asians are more susceptible to China’s charm offense.  Southeast Asians generally speaking hold a more

sanguine view about the rise of China as their attitudes toward China are driven more by economic consideration and less by security concern or ideological distance.  In a sense, At the same time, the risk and benefit brought about by expanding economic ties with China has distributed very unevenly in many East Asian countries and thus created polarized views over the nature of China’s impact especially in the Northeast Asia countries where laborers, farmers and office workers feel the economic squeeze more strongly. 25

Policy Implications  The empirical findings we presented above are

largely compatible with the long-running policy pursued by a great majority of East Asian countries.  Contrary to the theoretical prediction of the neorealists, most of them avoid pursuing either a balancing or bandwagoning strategy.  In the face of the intensified strategic competition between China and the United States, most of them avoid having to choose one side at the obvious expense of the other.  Whenever possible they opt for maximizing benefits from deepening economic ties with China while maintaining a close security relation with the 26 United States for hedging potential risks.

Implications for Taiwan

27

Partisanship and Predicting which country will be most influential in Asia in 10 years 90.0

80.6 80.0

70.3

69.2

70.0

60.0

1 China

50.0

2 USA 3 Others

40.0

9 missing 30.0

16.8

20.0

11.3 11.8 10.0

7.8

6.6

5.7 5.9

7.8 6.1

.0

pan-blue

pan-green

nonpartisan

28

Partisanship and View on How Much Influence Does China Have on our Country (Taiwan Asian Barometer Survey, 2010) 70.0

60.0

50.0

A great deal of influence

40.0

Some influence Not much influence 30.0

No influence at all

20.0

10.0

0.0

pan-blue

pan-green

nonpartisan

29

Partisanship and View on the Nature of Mainland China's Impact on Taiwan (Source: ABS Taiwan 2010) 35.0

30.0

25.0

Very positive Positive

20.0

Somewhat positive Somewhat negative

15.0

Negative Very negative

10.0

5.0

.0

pan-blue

pan-green

nonpartisan 30

Level of Education and View on Mainland China's Impact on Taiwan 30.0

25.0

20.0

Very positive Positive Somewhat positive

15.0

Somewhat negative Negative Very negative

10.0

5.0

.0

Elementary

Secondary

College

31

Age and View on Mainland China's Imapct on Taiwan (source: ABS Taiwan 2010) 35.0

30.0

25.0

Very positive 20.0

Positive Somewhat positive Somewhat negative

15.0

Negative Very negative 10.0

5.0

.0

20-29

30-39

40-49

50-59

over 60

32

The Challenges Facing Taiwan  The island has become increasingly dependent on

mainland China economically and susceptible to its political influence.  A rising China poses both risks and opportunities to Taiwan.  Taiwanese people are still divided over the risks and benefits arising from the cross-Strait economic integration especially along the partisan line.  It is difficult for the Ma Ying-jeou government to fully unlock the peace dividends without a strong popular backing. It is a catch-22 situation. 33

The Strategic Rivalry between U.S. and China  Taiwan is trailing way behind its major competitors, in

particular South Korea, over expanding its network of freetrade agreements.  China holds the key to Taiwan’s entrance into regional free trade pact (RCEP)  Taipei faces a tougher challenge as Washington's recent "pivot" to Asia heightens the strategic competition between the US and China  It remains to be seen whether Taipei will soon reach a strategic crossroads where it will become increasingly difficult to maintain its close economic and security ties with the US while deepening its cooperative relationship with Beijing.

34

View more...

Comments

Copyright � 2017 NANOPDF Inc.
SUPPORT NANOPDF