Hydrological Perspective of Climate Change Impact
Short Description
Download Hydrological Perspective of Climate Change Impact...
Description
Hydrological Perspective of Climate Change Impact Assessment Distinguished Lecture - Hydrological Sciences Section
Professor Ke-Sheng Cheng Dept. of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering National Taiwan University
Outline • The scale issue of climate change studies • An example of climate change impact assessment focusing on changes in design storms.
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
2
The scale issue • Climate changes have had profound impacts on climate and weather of our lives. • The impacts of climate change vary with the scales of interest.
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
3
• As scientists, we can assess the impacts of climate changes on all scales of variables of interest. However, practical actions for coping with climate changes are almost exclusively implemented in country and regional/local scales. • Although hydrologists and climatologists may conduct studies in similar scales, there are also scales which are of unique interests to hydrologists. 07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
4
Scales for flood risk assessment
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
5
• Climatologists focus on climate-scale changes. – Changes in annual or long-term average rainfalls of global to regional scales.
• Hydrologist are more concerned about the impacts of climate change on hydrological extremes such as floods and droughts. – Such hydrological extremes are results of extreme weather events.
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
6
• Studies related to climate changes usually involve multiple disciplines. • Terminologies commonly used by one discipline may not be familiar to other disciplines and, in some cases, terminologies actually cause misunderstandings or misinterpretations of the research results. • Effective and good communications are important in disseminating research outputs. 07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
7
• Climatologists focus on climate-scale changes. – Changes in annual or long-term average rainfalls of global to regional scales. – Impact of Climate Change on River Discharge Projected by Multimodel Ensemble (Nohara et al., 2006, Journal of Hydrometeorology) • At the end of the twenty-first century, the annual mean precipitation, evaporation, and runoff increase in high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, southern to eastern Asia, and central Africa.
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
8
Mean annual flow is the average daily flow for the individual year or multiyear period of interest. [http://streamflow.engr.oregonstate.edu/analysis/annual/]
– Future changes in precipitation and impacts on extreme streamflow over Amazonian sub-basins (Guimberteau et al., 2013, Environ. Res. Lett.) • Hydrological annual extreme variations (i.e. low/high flows) associated with precipitation (and evapotranspiration) changes are investigated over the Amazon River sub-basins. • Evaluating changes in mean annual flow (MAF), high flow (highest decile of MAF), low flow (lowest decile of MAF) over the 1980 – 2000 period and two periods of the 21st century. This study investigated changes in hydrological extremes which were associated with an annual resolution. 07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
9
– Temperature dependence of global precipitation extremes (Liu et al., 2009, Geophysical Research Letters) • For Taiwan, the top 10% heaviest rain increases by about 140% for each degree increase in global temperature. – The top 10% bin rainfall intensity was defined as 13 mm/hr which was calculated based on long-term average daily rainfall intensities.
• The above climatological rainfall extreme is much lower than the 79 mm design rainfalls (for 90-minute duration and 5-year return period) of the Taipei City.
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
10
Example •
Contours of the 100-year return period daily rainfall depth based on observed data and high-resolution downscaled rainfalls.
(A)
Based on site observations
(B)
Based on high-resolution downscaled rainfalls. Contours exhibit higher degree of spatial continuity.
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
11
Climate change impact assessment focusing on changes in design storms in Taiwan Cheng, K.S., Lin, G.F., Chen, M.J., Wu, Y.C, Wu, M.F. Hydrotech Research Institute, NTU
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
12
Scale mismatch in climate projection and hydrological projection • In assessing the impact of climate change, hydrologists often are interested in changes in rainfall extremes, such as rainfall depths of high return periods (i.e., design storms such as rainfall depth of 24-hour, 100-year). • Such rainfall extremes are results of extreme weather events which are characteristic of relatively small spatial and temporal scales and cannot be resolved by GCMs.
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
13
24 GCMs
Projections in coarse spatial and time scales. (200 – 300 km; monthly)
RCM
Projections in finer spatial scale. (5km; monthly)
From GCM outputs to design storm depths – a problem of scale mismatch (both temporal and spatial) Design rainfall depths For example, 24-hr, 100-year rainfall depth Characteristics of extreme storm events
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
14
• Rainfall extremes represent quantities of high percentiles. – Predicting extreme values is far more difficult than predicting the means.
• We may have reasonable confidence on climate projections (for example, long-term average seasonal rainfalls), whereas our confidence on extreme weather projections is generally low. 07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
15
• Characteristics of storm events • • • •
Number of storm events Duration of a storm event Total rainfall depth Time variation of rainfall intensities
• These characteristics are random in nature and can be described by certain probability distributions. • Although the realized values of these storm characteristics of individual storm events represent weather observations, their probability distributions are climate (long term and ensemble) properties. 07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
16
• A GCM – stochastic model integrated approach – Climatological projection by GCMs • Changes in the means of storm characteristics • For examples, – Average number of typhoons per year – Average duration of typhoons – Average event-total rainfall of typhoons
– Hydrological projection by a stochastic storm rainfall simulation model • Generating realizations of storm rainfall process using storm characteristics which are representative of the projection period. • Preserving statistical properties of the all storm characteristics. 07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
17
24 GCMs
Projections in coarse spatial and time scales. (200 – 300 km; monthly)
Projections in finer spatial scale. (5km; monthly)
RCM
Weather Generator (Richardson type)
Projections in finer time scale. (5km; daily)
Conceptual flowchart
ANN
Stochastic storm rainfall simulation
Projections in point (spatial) and hourly (time) scales.
1 2 3 4 5
Characteristics of storm events Number of storm events Onset of storm occurrences Duration of a storm event Total rainfall depth Time variation of rainfall intensity
Design rainfall depths For example, 24-hr, 100-year rainfall depth Characteristics of extreme storm events
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
18
Climate change scenarios and GCM outputs • Emission scenario: A1B • Baseline period: 1980 – 1999 • Projection period – Near future: 2020 – 2039 – End of century: 2080 – 2099
• GCM model: 24 GCMs statistical downscaling • Hydrological scenario: changes in storm characteristics
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
19
Changes in monthly rainfalls (Statistical downscaling, Ensemble average with standard deviation adjustment) Taipei area
Near future (2020 – 2039) 07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Near future (2080 – 2099) Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
20
Annual counts of storm events estimated by ANN Frontal
Maiyu
Typhoon
Convective
North
Center
South
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
21
Storm characteristics (average duration of typhoon)
Gauge observations
MRI (1979 - 2003)
Source: NCDR, Taiwan
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, MRI (2075 - 2099) National Taiwan University
07/28 - 08/01, 2014 MRI (2015 – 2039)
22
Storm characteristics (average event-total rainfalls of typhoon)
Gauge observations
MRI (1979 - 2003)
Source: NCDR, Taiwan
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, MRI (2075 - 2099) National Taiwan University
07/28 - 08/01, 2014 MRI (2015 – 2039)
23
Stochastic storm rainfall process Storm characteristics
•Duration •Event-total depth •Inter-arrival(or inter-event) time •Time variation of rain-rates Inter-arrival time
Inter-arrival time
Rainrate
Total depth
Department of BioenvironmentalDuration Systems Engineering, Duration Duration
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
National Taiwan University
Duration
Time(hr) 24
Season-specific storm characteristics
Rainfalls (mm)
Frontal
Jan- April 07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Storm type
Period
Frontal
Nov - April
Mei-Yu
May - June
Convective
July - October
Typhoon
July - October
Mei-Yu
May - June
Convective, Typhoon
Frontal
July - October
Nov - Dec
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
25
Stochastic Storm Rainfall Simulation Model
(SSRSM)
• Simulating occurrences of storms and their rainfall rates • Preserving seasonal variation and temporal autocorrelation of rainfall process. • Duration and event-total depth • Inter-event times • Percentage of total rainfalls in individual intervals (Storm hyetographs)
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
26
• Simulating occurrences of storm events of various storm types – Number of events per year • Poisson distribution for typhoon and Mei-Yu
– Inter-event time • Gamma or log-normal distributions
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
27
• Simulating joint distribution of duration and event-total depth – Bivariate gamma distribution (e.g. typhoons) – Log-normal-Gamma bivariate – Non-Gaussian bivariate distribution was transformed to a corresponding bivariate standard normal distribution with desired correlation matrix.
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
28
Bivariate gamma (X,Y)
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
29
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
30
• Simulating percentages of total rainfalls in individual intervals (Simulation of storm hyetographs) – Based on the simple scaling property • Durations of all events of the same storm types are divided into a fixed number of intervals (e.g. 24 intervals). • For a specific interval, rainfall percentages of different events are identically and independently distributed (IID). • Rainfall percentages of adjacent intervals are correlated. • The simple scaling leads to the Horner equation fitting of the IDF curves.
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
31
Simple scaling (Random fractal)
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
32
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
33
Modeling the storm hyetograph Probability density of x(15)
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
34
Taking all the above properties into account, we propose to model the dimensionless hyetograph by a truncated gamma Markov process.
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
35
Truncated gamma density (parameters estimation, including the truncation level)
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
36
Effect of modeling truncated data with an untruncated density
f X ( x) f XT ( x) , x vc FX ( x )
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
37
Parameters estimation Truncated gamma distribution
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
38
Kt
Xt
E[ K t ]
E[ X t ]
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Var[ K t ]
Var[ X t ]
2
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
39
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
40
Stochastic simulation
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
41
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
42
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
43
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
44
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
45
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
46
• Example 1
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
47
• Example 2
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
48
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
49
• CHECK
• Validation by stochastic simulation
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
50
– Rainfall percentages should sum to 100% • Truncated gamma distributions • Conditional simulation is necessary • 1st order Markov process
– Conditional simulation of first order truncated gamma Markov process
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
51
Each simulation run yields an annual sequence of hourly rainfalls. 500 runs were generated for each rainfall station. Time of storm occurrences (Duration, total depth) bivariate simulation first-order Truncated Gamma-Markov simulation Rainrate
Hourly rainfall sequence Total depth
Time(hr)
Duration
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Duration
Duration
Duration
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
52
Examples of hourly rainfall sequence (Kaoshiung)
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
53
Validation of the simulation results using baseline period observations
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
54
Hyetograph Simulation results (Typhoons)
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
55
Time-to-peak and peak rainfall percentage (Typhoons) • Empirical cumulative distribution functions
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
56
Application of simulation results • Extreme rainfall assessment – Annual maximum rainfall depth – Hydrologic frequency analysis
• Seasonal rainfall assessment • Water resources management
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
57
Impact on design storm depths
Tainan
Kaoshiung
(Projection period: 2020-2039)
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
58
Summary • Changes in storm characteristics were derived using monthly rainfall outputs of multiple GCMs and an ANN model. • The SSRSM is highly versatile. – Can provide rainfall data of different temporal scales (hourly, daily, TDP, monthly, yearly) – Can facilitate the data requirements for various applications (disaster mitigation, water resources management and planning, etc.)
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
59
• References Wu, Y.C., Hou, J.C., Liou, J.J., Su, Y.F., Cheng, K.S., 2012. Assessing the impact of climate change on basin-average annual typhoon rainfalls with consideration of multisite correlation. Paddy and Water Environment, DOI 10.1007/s10333-011-0271-5. Liou, J.J. Su, Y.F., Chiang, J.L., Cheng, K.S., 2011. Gamma random field simulation by a covariance matrix transformation method. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 25(2): 235 – 251, DOI: 10.1007/s00477-010-0434-8. Cheng, K.S., Hou, J.C., Liou, J.J., 2011. Stochastic Simulation of Bivariate Gamma Distribution – A Frequency-Factor Based Approach. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 25(2): 107 – 122, DOI 10.1007/s00477-010-0427-7. Cheng, K.S., Hou, J.C., Wu, Y.C., Liou, J.J., 2009. Assessing the impact of climate change on annual typhoon rainfall – A stochastic simulation approach. Paddy and Water Environment, 7(4): 333 – 340, DOI 10.1007/s10333-0090183-9. Cheng, K.S., Chiang, J.L., and Hsu, C.W., 2007. Simulation of probability distributions commonly used in hydrologic frequency analysis. Hydrological Processes, 21: 51 – 60.
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
60
Conclusions • Physical processes + uncertainties • Climate extremes vs weather/hydrological extremes • Support changes and their interpretations • Coping with uncertainties by using multiple model ensembles • Different meanings of the same terminology in different fields. • Importance of communications 07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
61
• Communications – We should not evaluate the performance of GCMs by making a point-to-point comparison of their outputs of the baseline (present-day) period to observed data of the same period. – Ii is also not appropriate to compare projected data of GCMs to observations when they become available. Projected data of GCMs were generated under certain scenarios which may not be fully realized in the future.
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
62
Thanks for your patience!
07/28 - 08/01, 2014
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University
63
View more...
Comments