inaf100_johnson

January 6, 2018 | Author: Anonymous | Category: Business, Economics, Macroeconomics
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Maria Hamdouchi & De’Ahna Johnson

Research Question

As Middle Eastern and Northern African countries experienced the Arab Spring, how did the United States and its respective stakes in the region affect their outcomes?

The Middle East Since 1970 • The Modern Middle East • Regime Change Revolution War • We Are GLOBAL • Interdependent Economies • Speculation and Protection • Arab Spring 101

The Debate

• Some Scholars would Argue… •

Economic Stability, Corruption, Will of the People



Among other factors

• The Argument • Countries with Stakes • What was the main factor that influenced the outcomes of the Arab Spring?

Hypothesis Because of its stakes in the Middle East and North Africa, the United States influenced the outcomes of certain Arab Springs, favoring the successes of certain countries and the preservation of the status quo in others. Influence on Arab Spring Outcome

Influence on Arab Spring Outcome

Western Interests for Non Oil Countries Western Interests for Oil Countries

Selection Problems

Arab Spring Success

Arab Spring Failure

Oil Countries

Quadrant 1 Libya

Quadrant 2 Bahrain, Saudi Arabia

Non-Oil Countries

Quadrant 3 Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen

Quadrant 4 Jordan, Morocco, Syria

Arab Countries and Arab Spring Outcome Country

Arab Spring

Success

Algeria

0

0

Bahrain*

1

0

Egypt

1

1

Iraq

0

0

Jordan

1

0

Kuwait*

0

0

Lebanon

0

0

Libya

1

1

Morocco

1

0

Oman*

0

0

Qatar*

0

0

Saudi Arabia*

1

0

Syria

1

0

Tunisia

1

1

United Arab Emirates*

0

0

Yemen

1

1

*Denotes GCC Member

Selection Case Studies

• Presence of U.S. naval Base • Bahrain’s GCC Status

• Why did we choose these countries? •

Clearly illustrates the relationship between western interests and arab spring outcomes.

Egypt

Syria

Libya

Bahrain

Methodology

Trade as a Percentage of GDP

Per Capita GDP Energy Production Net Oil Trade with the United States

Take-Away Points Western Influence Economic Development Arab Spring

We expect to find a positive correlation Growth vs. Western Influence

Military Intervention Outcome of Arab Spring Relational Western Interests

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