ISDC.2014.Cordell - 21st Century Waves

The New Apollo-level Space Age

Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. ISDC 2014.5.15 21stCenturyWaves.com

JFK’s 50th Moon Anniversary May 25, 1961: “…this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to the earth. Freeman Dyson, ISDC 2010: ‘Why have we been stuck in LEO for 40 Years?’

Preview • Apollo & last 200 years of Great Explorations explained by twice/century“critical states” • Growth, technology, geopolitics, the trigger • Early self-sufficiency in deep space avoids another 40-yr hiatus Apollo’s timing not an accident; New international Space Age expected near-term.

Introduction

The Patterns Over the last 200+ years… Twice-Per-Century Clusters of these exist: • Great Explorations (e.g., Lewis and Clark) • Macro-Engineering Projects (e.g., Panama Canal) • Major Wars (e.g., World War I)

Disney and Von Braun The 1960s were transformative…

The Way We Were…

The Way We Will Be

The Maslow Window Economic Model

It’s 1987. Why the smiles?

Compelling Clusters Energy Booms Great Explorations

1801 Lewis & Clark/ N. America

Macro-Engineering (Erie Canal) Projects (MEP) Major Wars

Napoleanic Wars/ War of 1812

1857

1913

1969

Livingstone/ Africa

Peary/ Polar

Apollo/ Moon

Suez Canal

Panama Canal

Apollo

Civil War

W.W. I

Vietnam/ Cold War

The 56 Yr Energy/Boom Cycle From Hugh B. Stewart (1989), Recollecting the Future, Dow Jones-Irwin, Homewood, IL, pp. 64.

Replotted in Theodore Modis (1992) Predictions, Simon & Schuster, New York, pp. 148.

Standard Chartered Bank’s “Super-Cycles”

The Maslow Window Model • Rhythmic, twice-per-century JFK-style booms occur -- “Super-Cycle” • Widespread affluence -- the “Great Prosperity” • Many ascend Maslow’s Hierarchy -- “Ebullience”

Expanded worldviews support Apollo-style initiatives

1960s “Ebullience”

Maslow Windows as “Critical States”

Are Maslow Windows Triggered by Critical States? • Pulsed Progress 2x/Century • Critical States seen in: – Financial Systems – NASA Space Programs – Wars

CS Feature large, unexpected changes from small triggers, “Avalanches”

Are Critical States Like Falling Grains of Sand?

Are Maslow Windows Predictable? Near-Critical Potential Signatures Include: • Financial Panics/Great Recessions; e.g., Panics of 2008, 1893…

• Geopolitical Tensions/Conflicts;

e.g., Cuban Missile

Crisis, Iran/North Korea…

• Major Economic Booms;

e.g., 1899, JFK Boom, 2015 (?)…

A 21st Century “Sputnik Moment”?

The 1960s As a “Critical State” • • • • • •

Sputnik (1957) Cuban Missile Crisis Peace Corps Apollo Moon Program Civil Rights Movement Vietnam

Yale Sociologist Gary Brewer: During Apollo, NASA was “a perfect place.”

Forecasts and Issues

A Maslow Case Study: 1890-1913

Greatest Global Boom – 7/23/07

The Remaining Step: A JFK-style Boom • • • •

The Energy Boom Creativity –Universities, Business Huge Amounts of Capital New Technologies/Manufacturing Depth “America’s success isn’t preordained. But the technological innovations circa 2012 are profound. They will engender sweeping changes to our society and our economy. All the forces are in place. It’s just a matter of when.”

The Trajectory of Great Explorations Lewis and Clark/NW U.S. Dr. Livingstone/Eq Africa Peary/Amundsen/Poles Apollo/Moon

What’s Next?

Or

?

What About the Moon? “The Moon will never motivate the American people again.” (1984) Tom Paine, NASA Admin 1968-70 • Star Trek: The Next Generation • ISS Model and Interspace • “The potential for cultural shock and social disorganization…”

The “Earth” Model or the “Moon” Model?

Who’s the Next Space President?

Summary • 2015-2025: analog of the transformative1960s/1900s “critical states” • The key: early self-sufficiency in deep space – to avoid another 40-year hiatus

• Maslow patterns are robust through 2 world wars, the Great Depression, several financial panics • After 2025, next Maslow Window of opportunity is between 2071 – 2081.

Can Humanity Afford to Wait?

Contact Dr. Bruce Cordell

Web: 21stCenturyWaves.com See: “10 Space Trends for 2014…” /