Lecture 21

January 16, 2018 | Author: Anonymous | Category: Social Science, Political Science, American Politics
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Surge and Decline The Election of 2010

Clearly Stated Learning Objectives • Understand the decision making process for why people vote as they do and how this changes over time. • Evaluate and interpret the importance of partisanship in shaping political opinion and vote choice • Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2010 Election.

A Historical Perspective

The Presidential Surge • The President pulls candidates along with him – 1980, 2008, 1964

• In a worst-case, he breaks even – 1984, 1996, 2004

The Midterm Decline • The President’s Party Loses Seats

• They Take a bigger hit in the 6th Year

• 1934, 1998, and 2002

The Role of Midterm elections • A referendum on the president

• A referendum on the economy

WHO VOTES IN THE MIDTERM

A Different Electorate

A Different Electorate • More Partisans

• Less people there to support the president

• Less salient election

Congressional vote for candidate of winning presidential party

Withdrawn Coattails

50%

Coattail effect

Non-coattail effect

Presidential Election

Non-coattail effect

Midterm Election

Core vs. Peripheral Voters

THE OLD THEORY OF SURGE AND DECLINE

Types of Voters • Core Voters

• Peripheral voters

It is all about Peripheral Voters • A Surge of Independent Voters

• Excited by the salience of the election

A Surge of Information • Peripheral voters go to the polls

• The information surge favors the winning candidate

In the Midterm • The peripherals stay at home resulting in lower turnout

• The Core voters turn out

Problems with the original theory • The Midterm and presidential electorates are similar demographically • The partisan differences aren’t that much different • Peripherals are not running the show!

THE REVISED THEORY

The Disadvantaged Partisan • More Likely to abstain than defect

• Cross Pressured

Winners and Losers • In the General election – Surge among the advantaged party

– Decline among the losing party

• A One Sided Surge

In the Midterm • Partisans Stay at Home

• So do Peripherals

In the Midyear • The president’s party stays at home

• The Out- party comes out to vote against you.

• No Cross-pressures

The Big Differences in the Theory • Advantaged Partisans Turn out Heavy

• Disadvantaged Partisans stay at Home

• Independents turn out like usual, but swing to the wining party.

LEADING FACTORS OF A MIDTERM LOSS

How You Know it is going to bad • Exposure and Coattails

• Presidential Approval

• Economic Growth

The Elections of 2010

The Obama Dichotomy • President Obama had a record of achievement not seen since LBJ. • Each of these achievements produced positive and negative political consequences.

Health Care Reform • Policy Success – The largest accomplishment of the administration

• Policy Problems – Spent Political Capital – Delayed Implementation

Opinion Remained Divided

The Stimulus Package • Success – Potentially Staved off a second depression • Problems – High Price Tag – Did not meet expectations

Voters were Split on its Effectiveness

War on Terror Successes in Iraq Problems in Afghanistan – More U.S. deaths in two years of Obama Administration than in 8 years of Bush Administration

• Support Remains Divided

Financial Reform Bill Success – The most sweeping bank reform since the Great Depression

Problems – Critics on the Left say it didn’t Go Far Enough – Economy has not rebounded

Obama Shares the Blame

President Obama’s Policy Disconnect • Major Policies did not directly affect ordinary voters in a meaningful way • Many Voters viewed these major policies as halfempty, not half-full

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