Anticipating and matching demand and supply of skills in ETF partner countries Lizzi Feiler, labour market specialist European Training Foundation
Content
• The knowledge continuum: forecasting is not enough • The challenges • ETF innovation and learning project 2011-2013: anticipation and matching in transition and developing countries - Project outcome 2012 - Key findings from stock taking - Planned activities 2013 LFE, Sarajevo, 12.7.2012
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The knowledge continuum: a coherent approach to anticipation and matching 3 basic functions of anticipation and matching:
Knowledge creation, based on evidence: analysis of present and past data, future trends
Knowledge mediation: dissemination to reach the actors
LFE, Sarajevo, 12.7.2012
Knowledge application: implementation of anticipation and matching policies
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The challenges • Labour market shocks led to high youth unemployment • Weak labour market information systems • Transition economies experience rapid change of skills demands because of shifts from agriculture and manufacturing to services, privatisation and foreign direct investment • The future is uncertain…. there are also external factors
• Dominance of micro and small enterprises and a large informal economy create additional challenges
LFE, Sarajevo, 12.7.2012
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The challenges …since it is a „mission impossible“ to achieve quick fixes of current skills mismatches with education reforms, anticipation of future skills needs is requested
LFE, Sarajevo, 12.7.2012
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Project outcome 2012 Stocktaking of current practices: 10 country reports
Synthesis reports
Specific conditions in transition economies and development countries
How to measure mismatch: a comparison of methods and interpetations
LFE, Sarajevo, 12.7.2012
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Exploring current and future demands – what countries do (examples) Time horizon Levels
short-term (0-1 year)
Micro-level (people, enterprises)
• HR: online survey of SMEs • HR: transition survey of youth (1x) • EGY: tracer study; • EGY: Analysis of vacancies (monthly) • MOL: PES transition survey; • UA: ETF transition study;
Meso-level (sectors, regions,)
• ME: PES and employers’ federation: employer surveys • EGY: PROSPECT method at local level • MOL, ME, HR PES employer surveys • TR: Skill’10 project combines needs analysis, training and matching. (90% job placement expected) •UA: VET on demand of employers (90% job placement expected)
Macro-level (national, systems level)
HR – Croatia, TR – Turkey, UA – Ukraine, KG - Kyrgyzstan
Mid-term (1-5 years)
• HR: PES employer surveys • HR: Sector analysis (14 sectors) • EGY: sectoral employer surveys • UA: sector skills studies: ICT sector (ETF), coal mining (TACIS)
• EGY: 4-yr forecast of the national observatory • HR: CES analysis and forecast of LM needs • KG: enterprise survey with trend extrapolation and multi-stakeholder surveys • MOL: Survey of public and private employers2011-2016 • UA: Employer surveys (PES, WB)
Conclusions and key findings from stock taking •
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A robust database for the labour market and the E&T system is a key pre-condition for valid anticipation and effective matching
A mix of approaches and continuous methodological improvement (but at the same time continuity and consistency!) is needed Credibility: combination of informal knowledge and research findings. Publication of research is not enough to convince decision makers 8
Conclusions and key findings from stock taking • • • •
Anticipation aims at shaping the future, hence needs to be imbedded in a macroeconomic vision and strategy Strong PES capacities are important for better matching Active role of employers in anticipation and matching (recruitment, work based learning, adaptation to change, …) Micro and small enterprises might need specific support
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Planned activities 2012/2013 Elaborating a compendium of guides: 1. Skills Mismatch Analyses will build on the project work in 2011 and enable users to choose the right and most relevant methodology 2. Macro Level Anticipation will test and adopt the Cedefop methodology on skills forecast in 1-2 ETF pilot countries, taking into account the availability of data and resources 3. Anticipation and Matching of Skills at Sector Level will cover qualitative and quantitative sector based aspects of skills demands analyses 4. Transition Studies will look into methodologies and objectives of transition and tracer studies, to track and follow individuals on the labour market LFE, Sarajevo, 12.7.2012
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Planned activities 2012/2013 5. Supply Analyses will cover methodologies used for the assessment of capacity, efficiency and relevance of training providers 6. Enterprise Surveys will cover various types of enterprise surveys as a tool for qualitative and quantitative skills needs assessment 7. Anticipation and Matching of Skills at Regional Level will cover the key elements of sub-national demand analysis and specific methodologies and approaches used at regional (e.g. local) level 8. Intermediary Agencies and Tools in Matching will look into roles and modus operandi of intermediary bodies such as PES or career guidance services in matching people´s skills with jobs LFE, Sarajevo, 12.7.2012
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Lizzi Feiler
[email protected]
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