INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR GAMBLING AND GAMING
PROF. DR. DR. PEREN ASSESSMENT TOOL TO MEASURE AND EVALUATE THE RISK POTENTIAL OF GAMBLING PRODUCTS
Agenda
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
Pathological gambling Development of ASTERIG Risk potential criteria. The ten dimensions Weights of the dimensions Score Classification Visualization Example Conclusion Future directions
2013-10-01
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1. Pathological gambling
Some individuals develop a recurrent, maladaptive pattern of gambling behavior, called pathological gambling. It is associated with financial losses, disruption of family and interpersonal relationships and co-occurring psychiatric disorders.
ASTERIG = assessment tool to measure and to evaluate the risk potential of any gambling product
Gambling products have different risk potentials. Availability of an objective, systematic tool to assess the risk potential of different gambling products. Help medical and psychological scientists, lawyers, judges, policy-makers assess the risk potential and allow objective comparison. 2013-10-01
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2. Development of ASTERIG
Developed in Germany in 20062010. Global Development under the head of the Columbia University, USA in 2011-2012. Validated and updated globally by international leading experts. International leading experts refined and enhanced the instrument. 2013-10-01
Experts
Country
Institution
Carlos Blanco
USA
Department of Psychiatry Columbia University, New York State Psychiatric Institute
Alex Blaszczynski
AUS
University of Sydney, School of Psychology
Reiner Clement
GE
Bonn-Rhein-Sieg University, Department of Business
Jeffrey Derevensky
CAN
McGill University, International Centre for Youth Gambling Problems and High Risk Behaviors
Anna E. Goudriaan
NL
University of Amsterdam, Academic Medical Center
David C. Hodgins
CAN
Ruth J. van Holst
NL
Ángela Ibáñez
ESP
Alcala University, Department of Psychiatry, Ramon y Cajal Hospital
Silvia S. Martins
USA
Columbia University, Mailman School of Public Health
Chantal Moersen
GE
Charité Berlin
Sabrina Molinaro
I
CNR - Istituto di Fisiologia Clinica Sezione di Epidemiologia Pisa
Adrian Parke
UK
University of Lincoln
Franz W. Peren
GE
Bonn-Rhein-Sieg University, Department of Business
Nancy M. Petry
USA
University of Connecticut, Health Center
Heather Wardle
UK
National Centre for Social Research
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University of Calgary, Department of Psychology University of Amsterdam, Academic Medical Center
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3. Risk potential criteria
Ten dimensions (parameters) provide a useful framework to examine the risk potential of different gambling products. The dimensions are provided with scales: - Higher score indicate higher risk potential. - Scales: modified, standardized, symmetric. - Scales between 0 (of no importance) and 10 (of very great importance).
2013-10-01
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The ten dimensions
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
Event frequency Interval of payback Jackpot Continuity of playing Chance of winning a profit Availability Multiple playing-/ stake opportunities Variable stake amount Sensory product design Near wins
2013-10-01
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The ten dimensions
1. Event frequency Unit of time between stake, gambling result and next stake opportunity. > 6 days
0
> 24 hrs
> 1 hr
> 10 min
> 3 min
> 1 min
> 15 sec
> 5 sec
≤ 6 days
≤ 24 hrs
≤ 1 hr
≤ 10 min
≤ 3 min
≤ 1 min
≤ 15 sec
≤ 5 sec
1.25
2.5
3.75
5
6.25
7.5
8.75
10
2. Interval of payback Period of time between gambling result and notification of payment or actual receipt of payment. > 6 days
0 2013-10-01
> 24 hrs
> 1 hr
> 10 min
> 3 min
> 1 min
> 15 sec
> 5 sec
≤ 6 days
≤ 24 hrs
≤ 1 hr
≤ 10 min
≤ 3 min
≤ 1 min
≤ 15 sec
≤ 5 sec
1.25
2.5
3.75
5
6.25
7.5
8.75
10
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The ten dimensions
3. Jackpot An extraordinary top prize typically in the form of a large amount of money formed by the accumulation of previous bets. non existent
≥0$
≥ 100 $
≥ 1.000 $
< 100 $
< 1.000 $
< 10.000 $
≥ 10.000 $ < 50.000 $
1.25
2.5
4
6
0
≥ 50.000 $
≥ 100.000 $
< 100.000 $
< 1 Mio. $
7.5
8.75
≥ 1 Mio. $
10
4. Continuity of playing Period of time during which it is possible to gamble without interruption. ≤ 5 min of continuous gambling 0
2013-10-01
> 5 min
> 30 min
> 1 hour
≤ 30 min of continuous gambling
≤ 1 hour of continuous gambling
≤ 3 hrs of continuous gambling
2.5
5
7.5
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> 3 hrs of continuous gambling 10
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The ten dimensions
5. Chance of winning a profit The probability of realizing a profit with each game. >0% ≤ 0,1 % 1,25
0% 0
> 0,1 % ≤ 0,5 % 2.5
> 0,5 % ≤1% 4
>1% ≤5% 6
>5% ≤ 10 % 7.5
> 10 % ≤ 25 8,75
> 25% 10
6. Availability Possibility of accessing gambling opportunities.
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Gambling opportunities within a radius of > 100 km
Gambling opportunities within a radius from > 25 km to ≤ 100 km
Gambling opportunities within a radius from > 10 km to ≤ 25 km
Gambling opportunities within a radius from > 1 km to ≤ 10 km
Gambling opportunities within a radius of ≤ 1 km
Gambling opportunities at home / workplace
0
2.5
4
6
7.5
10
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The ten dimensions
7. Multiple playing-/ stake opportunities Opportunity to play several stakes at the same time (e.g. betting on several roulette numbers) or to take part in several gambling opportunities at the same time. no multiple playing opportunity and no multiple stake opportunity
multiple playing opportunities or multiple stake opportunities
multiple playing opportunities and multiple stake opportunities
0
5
10
8. Variable stake amount Extent to which gamblers can choose or modify their stake amounts while playing. 2013-10-01
no variable (= fixed) stake amount
variable stake, limited stake amount
variable stake, unlimited stake amount
0
5
10
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The ten dimensions
9. Sensory product design Auditory and visual effects. non-existent 0
auditory or visual effects exist 5
auditory and visual effects exist 10
10. Near wins Results when a gambler supposes to almost win (to miss the profit narrowly; a near win).
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non-existent
un-intentionally created, occurring by chance
0
5
intentionally created by supplier/ producer, occurring more frequently than random 10
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Weights of the dimensions
Some dimensions may be more important than others in increasing the risk of potential of the gambling product. Experts were asked to assign weights for each parameter regarding their risk potential. The weights were standardized: - from 0 (of no importance) to 10 (of very high importance). Overall risk potential: multiplying the weight of each dimension by the score on that dimension and adding up the weighted scores of all ten dimensions. - range from 0 (lowest) to 620 (highest). 2013-10-01
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5. Score
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6. Classificationof gambling products
Risk potential classification of gambling products into five categories:
2013-10-01
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7. Visualization
1. Scorecard
Suitable for quantitative assessments during the analysis of potentials and risks. For the estimation of product- and performance-ideas. For the quantitative evaluation of potential and risk analyses.
2. Bar diagram Analyse and compare the dimensions. 2013-10-01
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8. Example
„Bet-for-soccer“
(fictitious example)
National league: 24 teams that play in 12 matches in different cities on each Saturday. Simultaneous betting on all games allowed. For each match three outcomes (team A wins/ team B wins/ tie). Possible to bet all three outcomes at the same time. Chance of winning a profit and the amount of a possible profit depend on the quotes. Minimum stake $1, maximum $100 per each match. No jackpot. Webpage: only visual effects. 2013-10-01
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Example
2013-10-01
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Example
Risk potential: rated with a score of approximately 5,97 (resulting by dividing the total score 370 by 62) „bet-for-soccer“ : moderate in tendency to high.
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Result
Score
Risk category
Risk potential
1 - 124 125 - 248 249 – 372 373 - 496 497 - 620
>0 - ≤2 >2 - ≤4 >4 -≤6 >6 - ≤8 > 8 - ≤ 10
A B C D E
lowest low moderate high highest
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Example
Score card showing the risk potential of the fictitious sport betting game. 2013-10-01
Bar chart
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9.Conclusion
ASTERIG measures the possible dimensions of risk potential of gambling products on the basic of numeric scores. Allowes a comparison to be drawn between the addiction potentials of different gambling products. Hightlights where the specific risk potential of each specific gambling product lie. 2013-10-01
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10. Future directions
An indication of the classification of the risk potential of gambling products could be placed on vouchers, in gambling locations or in the computer screen. Visual display: Visualization of the possible risk for becoming addicted. Access and compare risk potentials.
ASTERIG may help to provide a systematic, objective way to access the risk potential of gambling products and contribute to develop policies that balance access to gambling for entertainment with minimizing the risk of gambling disorders. 2013-10-01
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Imprint
Prof. Dr. Dr. Franz W. Peren Prof. Dr. Reiner Clement Grantham-Allee 2-8 53757 Sankt Augustin • Germany fon fax
+49 (0) 3212 / 135 0946 +49 (0) 3212 / 135 0946
Thank you for your attention
www.forschung-gluecksspiel.de
[email protected] 2013-10-01
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