Michael Emerson „European Neighbourhood Policy“
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European Neighbourhood Policy Michael Emerson CEPS
Fundamentals of democracy promotion in the neighbourhood Paradigm identification – can the EU’s objective of democratisation of its neighbourhood be driven by conditionality, or mainly socialisation? Research suggests that conditionality has worked really well in the EU accession process, but not in neighburhood policy where there is no membership perspective Socialisation is all about attitudes, awareness, education, understanding of values, proximity providing experiences of personal contacts, etc. Socialisation is a long-term and hardly measurable process, but fundamental Arab spring home grown, grass root protests, not result of external policies. EU & member states ran away from confronting Mubarak etc EU response to Arab spring is renewal of ‘Conditionality’ discourse, ‘more for more’: unconvincing, but convenient for speeches of ministers. Democracy technical assistance worth doing where welcome, but don’t think you can buy in democracy on the cheap.
Meet the Eastern neighbours …. • Belarus – ripe for regime collapse and Russki takeover, unless unexpected political dynamics with post-Lukashenko: ‘history is about the unexpected becoming the inevitable’. • Ukraine – structural inclination to carry on ‘milking both cows’ (EU & Rus); very poor governance and comprehension of EU; need for rapid conclusion of EU-Ukr Association Agreement and DCFTA (but problem here, see later)
Meet the Eastern neighbours (cont.) • Moldova – very pro-EU government, but fragile, also need AA+DCFTA; Transnistria false priority • Georgia – radical de-regulating, liberalising & de-corrupting regime; unilateral free trade with whole world, unilateral recognition of EU technical standards for imports; Commission (DG Trade) pose unreasonable pre-conditions for DCFTA.
Meet the Eastern neighbours (cont.) • Armenia – atrocious kleptocracy; civil society and opposition exist; ripe for colour revolution (but TerPetrosian’s March protests fade) • Azerbaijan – enjoying oil wealth, civil society and opposition repressed, elite groups not interested in democracy; buying military strength, war talk over Nagorno Karbakh, Minsk group mediation failing
Russia • Not ‘neighbour but strategic partner’ • Not too bad EU-Russia relations • But not so good either: succession of empty grand initiatives (new PCA, 4 Common Spaces, Modernisation Partnership • Divergence of Putin v. Medvedev discourse: political competition, or just good cop/bad cop act? • Long term and very gradual Europeanisation of Russian society, alongside still divergent geo-political stances. Much depends on 2012. • Kaliningrad – special Lithuanian role
Policy issues for Eastern neighbours • Democracy instruments, Polish proposal for European Endowment for Democracy • DCFTA policy: DG Trade doctrine should be changed, ill-considered extrapolation of ‘enlargement’ acquis compliance; risk of failure for Eastern Partnership summit in November if no results for Ukraine & Georgia • Visa policy: need for early results, not just long term roadmaps; member states can liberalise multi-year, multi-entry visas
Southern neighbours & Arab spring …. • 17 Arab states from Morocco to Yemen feeling the ‘spring’ • 2 have regime change & fresh constitution (Tunisia, Egypt) • 3 seek progressive political reform (Morocco, Jordan, Oman) • 4 use oil manna to keep status quo (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Emirates) • 4 have bloody repression or civil war (Libya, Syria, Bahrain, Yemen), of which 2 external military intervention (Libya, Bahrain) • 3 fragile but cautious because of civil war memories (Algeria, Lebanon, Iraq) • 1 pushes for statehood (Palestine)
Arab spring, political dynamics & regime typology (cont.) 1. 2. 3.
Status quo Progressive constitutional reform Uprising …. a. b. c. d.
Moderate, on to 1 or 2 Violently suppressed, regime survives, on to 1 or 2 Civil war, regime overthrown, on to 3.d Regime change, leading to … i. ii. iii. iv. v. vi. vii.
New democracy Dysfunctional democracy Renewed corrupt authoritarianism Military regime Radical Islamic state Failed state Protectorate regime with external forces
Imagining Arab regime dynamics Plausible scenarios: • Morocco, progressive constitutionalisation of monarchy • Saudi Arabia, status quo seems sustainable • Egypt, Tunisia, new constitutions & elections, but multiple scenarios for regime transition including regression (e.g. Ukraine) • Libya, Yemen, Syria, all options open, failed states possible, democracy prospects weak • Conclusion: wide spectrum of scenarios likely, instant democracy implausible, external leverage limited; • …. but Arab world no longer immune from demands for democracy.