Population and Development

Population and Development

Aalok Ranjan Chaurasia

The Context • All development is for the people • People are the ultimate and the only beneficiaries. • Development is directed towards meeting the needs the people. • Development also contributes to capacity building of individuals as well as group of individuals –family, society, etc. 2

The Context • Development needs of the people are not the same. • They vary by basic characteristics of population – Size, Age, Sex

• The population stock determines the development needs. • Development modifies the population stock through changes in mortality, fertility and other determinants. 3

Outline of Presentation • Historical thinking about population as it affects social and economic progress. • Population, natural resources and environment. • Age structure transition. • Dynamics of population growth. • Population and development integration. • Population and development integration in India. 4

Historical Perspective • Population and development debate dates back to times immemorial. – Chinese philosophers, Confucius and others. • Ideal proportion between land and population. • Checks to population growth.

– Greek philosophers, Plato and Aristotle. • Optimum population with respect to Greek city state. • Ideal conditions for full development of man’s potential.

– Romans viewed population in the context of great empire. 5

Historical Perspective – Hebrew sacred books placed a strong emphasis on procreation and multiplication. – Kautilya, in his Arthashastra, dating back to 3-4 Centuries BC, has dealt in detail about the role of population in building a great empire. – During 15-18 Centuries, the view emerged that ‘resources determine population. • Botero, Sir Walter Raleigh

– “Increase resources availability” was the basic paradigm of development. 6

Malthus • • • • •

Subsistence severely limits population-level When means of subsistence increase, population increases Population-pressures stimulate increase in productivity Increase in productivity stimulates further populationgrowth Since productivity can not keep up with the potential of population growth for long, population requires strong checks to keep it in line with carryingcapacity. 7

Malthus • Two kinds of checks that limit the growth of population – Preventive checks. These checks lead to a reduction in the birth rate – moral restraints, birth control and vice. – Positive checks. These checks lead to an increase in the death rate – war, plague, famine.

• Abolition of poor laws which gave no incentive to birth control. 8

Population and Well-being • The conventional way to frame the hazards of population growth to well-being is in terms of the ratio of population or labour supply to other factors of production. • Malthus focused on land resources. • In the 1940s, the focus was on exhaustible resources, minerals, energy supply, etc. • During the1950s, the focus was on physical capital. 9

Population and Well-being • Coale and Hoover argued that rapid population growth in less developed countries was a serious impediment to development. • Without development, rapid population growth was likely to continue. • Arguments of Coale and Hoover formed the basis for organized family planning programmes for fertility regulation including India. 10

Population Well-being • Rapid population growth is also associated with an age structure with a very high dependency. • It leads to the diversion of family resources for rearing children rather than for saving and investment in the production system resulting in lowering capital labour ratio. • Population control should be at the centre stage of all efforts directed towards improvements in the quality of life. 11

Population and Well-being • Another line of thinking perceived positive effects of large populations – Scale economies. – Agglomeration effects.

• Economic growth is pulled by population growth. • Pressure of increasing resources to meet even the basic needs of an increasing population leads to technical and managerial innovations. 12

Population and Well-being • In the 1980s, the view emerged that suggested that population growth was not a deterrent to economic development. • The correlation of population growth on development – positive or negative – was found to be weak. • This does not mean that population issues and development concerns do not interact each other. 13

Population, Resources, Environment • The question of survival – A certain environment is essential for ensuring and sustaining life on the planet Earth. • • • • •

Land Water Energy Ecosphere Air

• Environment provides resources and absorbs wastes as the result of resource use. 14

Population, Resources, Environment Environment

Resources

Wastes Technology

Man 15

Population, Resources, Environment • Population impact on the environment can be described in terms of – Per capita use of resources and associated per capita generation of wastes (Life style factors). – Size and structure of the population (Demographic factors).

• It is possible to separate the two effects on the environment through the application of simple decomposition exercise. 16

Energy Use and CO2 Emissions India: 1990-2006 Total (ktoe and million tones)

Per capita (kgoe and tones)

Population (million)

Increase

Year

Energy Use

Year

CO2 Emissions

1990

320

1990

680

2005

537

2006

1250

1990

377

1990

0.80

2005

491

2006

1.13

1990

851

1990

851

2005

1094

2006

1110

1990-05

217

1990-06

570 17

Energy Use and CO2 Emissions India: 1990-2006

18

Population, Resources, Environment • Maintaining the balance between population, resources, and environment is contingent upon – controlling population growth, and – curbing affluence.

• One implication of slowing down population growth is changes in population age structure. • Changes in age structure may provide a demographic window of opportunity that spurs economic growth. 19

Age Structure Transition • Decline in fertility leads to decline in the birth rate and decrease in the annual number of births. • Decrease in the annual number of births results in a decrease in the proportion of young population. • The large base of population pyramid shifts upwards. Age pyramid no longer remains triangular in shape. 20

Age Structure Transition • Upward shift of the large base of population pyramid results in an increased concentration of population in the working ages – the bulging of age pyramid. • As fertility continues to decline, the bulge continues to move upwards until it reaches old ages. • The age pyramid in this situation resembles like a rectangle of inverted triangle. 21

Age Structure Transition • During the period between the decline in young dependency and increase in old dependency, the ratio of the working age population to the dependent population increases. • The increased concentration of population in working ages as the result of demographic transition may be a dividend as well as a liability for economic growth and social and economic development. 22

Age Structure Transition • It is an opportunity when increased manpower is utilized as producers of goods and services. • In this situation, age structure transition spurs economic growth and accelerates social and economic progress. • If the increased manpower is not productively utilized, it becomes a liability to the social and economic production system and retards social and economic progress. 23

India and China, 1950 India

China

24

India and China, 1975 India

China

25

Indian and China, 2000 India

China

26

India and China, 2050 India

China

27

Population (0-14 years) 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 1950

1970

1990 C hina

2010

2030

2050

India

28

Population (15-59 years) 70

65

60

55

50 1950

1970

1990 C hina

2010

2030

2050

India

29

Population (60+ years) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1950

1970

1990 C hina

2010

2030

2050

India

30

Dependency Ratio India

China

100

100

80

80

60

60

40

40

20

20

0 1950

1970

1990 Old

2010

2030

Young

2050

0 1950

1970

1990 Old

2010

2030

2050

Young

31

Age Structure Transition • The demographic opportunity/liability is only a one time phenomenon. • The magnitude depends upon the speed of fertility decline. • When fertility declines at a rapid pace, the implications of demographic opportunity/liability are large. • When fertility declines slowly, implications are small. 32

Dynamics of Population Growth • The balancing equation P2 – P1 = (B – D) + (I – E) • Two approaches – Decrease the number of births (Preventive checks) – Increase the number of deaths (Positive checks)

• Increasing deaths is contrary to the basic philosophy of development. • The only alternative is to reduce births.

Dynamics of Population Growth • Reduction in the number of deaths has generally been a precondition to reduction in the number of births. • The only way to counter deaths is procreation. • When the death rate is high, a large proportion of deaths are premature deaths. • The child survival hypothesis. • The child replacement hypothesis. 34

Dynamics of Population Growth • Reduction in the number of births is possible only through regulating fertility – number of live births per couple (woman). • Achieving replacement fertility is necessary to achieve population stabilisation. • In the absence of mortality, replacement fertility is two children per couple. • Replacement fertility is more than 2 children when infant and child mortality is high. 35

The Two-child Norm

I

II

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Two-child Norm ♀♂

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♀ ♀ ♂ ♂

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PD Integration • There are two ways to address related to population as they affect social and economic development – Treat fertility reduction an isolated techno-medical intervention. – Address population factors within the framework of social and economic development.

• An integrated approach to address the population and welfare needs of the people may be more effective. 38

PD Integration • All development activities should be viewed through a population ‘lens’. The demographic impact assessment should be an integral part of all development programmes and activities. • The population stabilization efforts – family planning or otherwise – must have reflections in the development mirror. Population stabilization must contribute to the welfare of the people at large. 39

PD Integration • Population and development integration also provides an alternative framework for human development. • Population and development integration primarily aims at building the capacity of a couple to make rational choices about its own fertility. • This capacity leads to better opportunities through improved family health. 40

PD Integration • It also provides opportunities to the couple, especially, the fair sex, to participate in the productive processes. • Fertility related rational choices lead to maintaining population, resources, environment balance. • Rational fertility choices may also lead to increased savings and investments in social and economic production systems. 41

PD Integration • These capacities and opportunities, in turn, contribute to an increase in the endowments at the level of couple, family, and the society. • Examples of successful population and development experience are, however, very few. • Necessary data, analytical frameworks and institutional arrangements for integration are generally missing. 42

PD Integration in India • Population issues have always been discussed at length at the planning stage in India. • Population variables have not been incorporated in the main macro-economic model as endogenous variables like investment. • Population projections are worked out separately and used in sub-models like consumption model and sectoral allocations. 43

PD Integration in India • For example, there has been no attempt to take into consideration, the impact of decrease in fertility on female work participation. • At the operational level, population and development integration is confined to integrating family planning services with health care delivery services. • At the grass roots level, there has been little attempt to integrated service delivery. 44

Thank You

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