Population Theories

January 26, 2018 | Author: Anonymous | Category: Social Science, Sociology, Globalization
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Population Theories Malthus and Boserup Critical Comparison and Application Dr. Manish Kr. Semwal 1/20/12

Manish Semwal GMIS

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Malthus (1766-1834) • A mathematician, a clergyman, and Britain’s first professor of political economy • Known as “father of demography” • One of the most influential thinkers of his day, which was a period of improved social change, Industrial Revolution, idea less world 1/20/12

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Malthus’s An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798) • First edition proposed a quite stark & simple model, & drew social policy conclusions from it • Perhaps for that reason, it had a dramatic impact on public debates • Second and later versions were more nuanced in argument, much better supported evidentially - & less interesting

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Malthus started from two assumptions 1. Food is necessary for survival 2. “The passion between the sexes is necessary and will remain in its present condition” • From these he asserted that population growth would always have the potential to outpace economic growth

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Malthus’ Theory of Population Growth • In 1798 Thomas Malthus published his views on the effect of population on food supply. His theory has two basic principles: • Population grows at a geometric rate i.e. 1, 2, 4, 16, 32, etc. • Food production increases at an arithmetic rate i.e. 1, 2, 3, 4, etc. 1/20/12

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• The consequence of these two principles is that eventually, population will exceed the capacity of agriculture to support the new population numbers. Population would rise until a limit to growth was reached. Further growth would be limited when: – preventive checks - postponement of marriage (lowering of fertility rate), increased cost of food etc. – positive checks - famine, war, disease, would increase the death rate.

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Population grows geometrically….

Population exceeds carrying capacity…

Population is kept in “check”– preventative and/or positive checks

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Proposed Solutions • Two types of checks hold population within resource limits: • positive checks: which raise the death rate; hunger, disease and war. • preventative checks: which lower the birth rate; abortion, birth control, prostitution, postponement of marriage and celibacy. 1/20/12

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Thus some ‘check’ must limit population growth • Accordingly, Malthus saw two ways to keep population and resources in balance1: the ‘positive check’ – mortality; deaths 2: the ‘preventive check’ – nuptiality; marriages, or rather constraints on them • He ruled out contraception as immoral

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Positive and preventive checks • • • •

Positive check Population size rises Real income falls Mortality increases (poorer diets & living conditions) • Population size falls

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• • • •

Preventive check Population size rises Real income falls Marriages are postponed (they become unaffordable) • Fertility falls • Population size falls

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Limitation- Access to relevant data • Economic history (Phelps-Brown & Hopkins) & historical demography (Wrigley & Schofield) now allow a much fuller assessment of, say, the English historical data than Malthus himself could make • P-B & H produced real wages index based on wages of building workers & price of food • W & S inferred demography from parish registers

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Thus Malthus was in a way successful • But his model took some aspects of society, economy, agriculture etc. as static • They were then undergoing rapid change, so his model described the past better than the future • This is perhaps partly why he has subsequently been seen as conservative • ‘Malthusian’ sometimes even used to mean ‘opposed to social improvement’

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Need to incorporate social change in population models: at present • What is the role of population dynamics in situations of complex social, economic & technological change? • Such situations may be those of globalization in the present day • Economic development, modernization • 19th-century industrialization even in developing countries. • Earlier changes: agriculture & urbanization 1/20/12

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Boserup The Conditions of Agricultural Growth: The Economics of Agrarian Change under Population Pressure 1965

• Danish agricultural economist, with field experience in India & other Asian countries • Interested in the interaction between population growth and innovation, e.g. in agricultural practice & technology • Although neither a demographer nor an anthropologist or archaeologist, she has proved to be an important influence on all 1/20/12

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Archaeological background • How does past population growth relate to social, cultural, economic, technical change, e.g. agriculture, urbanization? • Archaeologists e.g. Childe had often taken the benefits of such changes to be obvious • Assumed they would be implemented as soon as society was advanced enough • Population growth would then follow 1/20/12

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Boserup & archaeology • Boserup’s implication for archaeology was to turn previous assumption on its head • Population growth was not so much the endproduct of social & technical change • Rather, population growth was an extrinsic pressure, driving changes which otherwise might not have happened • Far-reaching implications for archaeology & anthropology, still being explored 1/20/12

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Boserup’s Theory of Population Growth • In contrast to Malthus, instead of too many mouths to feed, Boserup emphasized the positive aspects of a large population; • In simple terms, Boserup suggested that the more people there are, the more hands there are to work; • She argued that as population increases, more pressure is placed on the existing agricultural system, which stimulates invention; • The changes in technology allow for improved crop strains and increased yields. 1/20/12

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Increased Food Production • • • • • • • •

Draining Marshlands. Extensification. Intensification. Reclaiming land from sea. Cross-breeding cattle. High-yield plant varieties. Terracing on steep slopes. Fish farming.

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• Growing crops in greenhouses. • More sophisticated irrigation techniques. • Creation of new foods such as soy. • Using artificial pesticides. • New species

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So what did Boserup actually say? • When a population is over-crowded, it evolves new forms of agriculture • High density of population is neutral, neither good nor bad, but usually needed for development of new techniques • With historical change, humankind has moved through a series of increasingly intensive agricultural systems • Each requires & supports more people 1/20/12

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Testing Boserup • No long-run data series like Wrigley & Schofield’s for Malthus is available for testing Boserup’s model • Nonetheless specific examples often support the propositions such as: farmers generally have to do more subsistence work than hunter-gatherers; work further increases with intensification of agriculture 1/20/12

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Malthus and Boserup

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Present Situation

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Anti-populationists vs. pronatalists • Malthus– anti-populationist – Echoed in recent debates by Paul Ehrlich, author of The Population Bomb; – Ehrlich believed that the earth’s carrying capacity would quickly be exceeded, resulting in widespread famine and population reductions; • Boserup– pronatalist (cornucopian) – Echoed in recent debates by Julian Simon, who opposed Ehrlich by using economic theories; ie. Resources needed to support populations are becoming more abundant, not scarcer; 1/20/12

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Malthus & Boserup • There is evidence to suggest that the ideas of Malthus and Boserup may be appropriate at different scales. • On a global level the growing suffering and famine in some LEDC’s may reinforce Malthusian ideas. • On a national scale some governments have been motivated by increasing populations to develop their resources to meet growing demands. 1/20/12

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Case Study Example

Mauritius

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Location Map

Mauritius

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Map of Mauritius Built up area

N 1/20/12

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Mauritius: Population Change Population 1992: 1,094,000 2025: 1,365,000 Growth Rate: 1.45% Pop doubling time: 47 years Fertility Rate: 2.17 children 1/20/12

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Mauritius: Physical Geography • Area: 1860 sq km • Natural Resources: arable land & fish • Agriculture: a/c for 10% GDP • Climate: tropical • Soils: fertile • Exports: sugar 32%; garments 31%; plastics 32%; others 5% 1/20/12

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The Issues? 1.What can we say about the rate of population growth in Mauritius? 2. How does the graph opposite contribute to our understanding of population growth in Mauritius? 1/20/12

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Crisis? What Crisis? Consider the graph again. To what extent do you agree with this statement: In the 1950’s Mauritius was experiencing a ‘Malthusian crisis’

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Possible Answer! • Birth rate had risen sharply from 35 to 45+ per thousand • Death Rate had declined sharply from 30 to 15 per thousand • Rate of natural increase suddenly very steep PRESSURE ON THE ECONOMY/NATURAL RESOURCES/AGRICULTURE

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Population Resources Equation • Population increasing • Diminishing resources (more mouths to feed and more people to support) POP’N

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What happened next? Malthus - doom & gloom? OR Boserup - ‘technological’ change

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Government Intervention The Government organised a family planning programme, aiming to: • improve the status of women • restrict early marriage • provide better health care • set up a family planning service

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Other influencing factors 1 • Changes in attitude to family size • improved educational opportunities for women • improved female work opportunities (by 1990 35% of women were in paid employment (22% in 1975)) • getting married later on in life

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Other influencing factors 2 • Diversification of agriculture • Investment in industry • Improved trading links - as an ex colony of the UK it is quite ‘westernised’ and has a democratic, stable Government - this has helped forge links with the USA • Many TNC’s are drawn to Mauritius - Why might this be? Suggest some reasons!!! 1/20/12

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Mauritius - TNC Attractor! • Holds ‘Export Processing Zone’ (EPZ) status

• Good level of investment in transport

• Tax incentives available

• Good supply of cheap labour

• Has large numbers of well educated residents

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• The creation of a Freeport at Port Louis

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Population Resources Equation

POPULATION

RESOURCES

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Thank You

Manish Kr. Semwal

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