Recommencing the Forward March of Labour

Recommencing the Forward March of Labour Raymond Markey Centre for Workforce Futures Macquarie University

introduction Eric Hobsbawm 1978 lecture The Forward March of Labour Halted? • Analysed British Labour Party’s declining support base & drew on historical record to suggest ways forward • In same spirit I draw on ALP’s historical experience to address need for reform as support base has withered • Numerous reform proposals, some adopted, but most shallow • Particular focus on trade unions/party relationship & decline of classic social democratic nature • Weakening relationship with unions a strategic error, but relationship requires renovation • Historical record suggests way forward combining labour & citizen repertoires of contention that also maintain essential nature of party

The problem • ALP holds office in only 2 States (SA & Vic) & 1 Territory (ACT) + probably Qld– all bar Vic minority governments • In preceding 5 years ALP lost government in Vic. (2010), NSW (2011), Qld (2012), NT (2012), Tas. (2014), & nationally (2013) • Large scale of defeats - NSW: ALP suffered 13% swing, gained 25% of primary vote & 20 seats of 93 – worst defeat of any govt in NSW history, worst swing against any Aust govt since WW2, & lowest % vote & seats since 1901 - Qld: 16% swing, 27% primary vote, 7 of 87 seats – lowest % votes since 1907 & seats since 1893 - Federal: 33% primary vote (Reps) lowest since 1931 but really 1903

• Special issues at play, & huge swings back to ALP in Qld 2015 & Vic 2014 after 1-term governments, but

Long term decline • In 9 federal elections since 1987 when Hawke was returned as PM with 46% vote, ALP’s primary vote exceeded 40% only twice: - 1993 (45%) & 2007 (43%) which won it office - 40% insufficient in 1998, though 39% in 1990 won office for ALP

• In preceding 30 elections 1906-87 ALP vote