Responding to Climate Change Myths John Cook Date: 14 July 2013
One Model of the Human Brain
A More Accurate Model of the Human Brain
The Familiarity Backfire Effect
The Familiarity Backfire Effect
Danger, Will Robinson! Approaching myth!
The Overkill Backfire Effect
MYTH FACT FACT FACT FACT FACT FACT FACT FACT FACT FACT FACT FACT
MYTH
• A simple myth is more cognitively attractive than an over-complicated correction (Schwarz et al 2007)
The Overkill Backfire Effect
MYTH FACT FACT FACT
FACT
• A simple myth is more cognitively attractive than an over-complicated correction (Schwarz et al 2007)
“I didn’t have time to write a short letter, so I wrote a long one instead.” MARK TWAIN
The Worldview Backfire Effect
One last psychological pitfall
An Alternative Explanation
MYTH Removing a myth leaves a gap
An Alternative Explanation
FACT
Replace with alternative narrative
Fight Sticky Ideas With Stickier Ideas
Questions?
Communicating “Sticky” Ideas Sticky ideas are: • Simple • Unexpected • Concrete • Credible • Emotional • Story
SUCCES
Sticky Ideas vs Mathematics Sticky ideas are: • Simple • Unexpected • Concrete • Credible • Emotional • Story
SUCCES
Climate Science is: • Complicated • Perplexing • Abstract • Attacked • Detached • Numbers
Andrew Bolt
“New data released two weeks ago shows the pause in global warming has now lasted 16 years.”
Is global warming happening?
The most dangerous climate misconception
“There is no scientific consensus that humans are causing global warming”
Cook et al 2013
The importance of consensus Ding et al 2011 found that people who believe scientists disagree on global warming are less likely to support climate policy McCright et al 2013: “Climate change communicators should therefore identify opportunities and employ techniques to effectively counter the denial machine’s campaign of challenging the scientific consensus. Overcoming its success in generating belief that scientists do not agree about anthropogenic global warming seems to be crucial for increasing public support for emissions reduction policies.”
Media Coverage of The Consensus Project
“97% of scientists, including, by the way, some who originally disputed the data, have now put that to rest. They’ve acknowledged the planet is warming and human PRESIDENT activity isOBAMA contributing to it.”
Questions? Examples of sticky climate messages?
5 Techniques of Consensus Denial 1. Fake Experts 2. Logical fallacies 3. Impossible Expectations 4. Cherry Picking 5. Conspiracy Theories
FLICC
Consensus
Consensus
Fake Experts
Fake Experts “The Oregon Institute of
Dana Rohrabacher, Republican Congressman
Science and Medicine, the OISM, released the names of some 31,478 scientists who signed a petition rejecting the claims of human-caused global warming.”
Logical Fallacies • Examples of logical fallacies: ad hominem attacks, strawman arguments, misrepresentation. • Most popular climate myth uses the Non Sequitur fallacy: “it does not follow”. The premise does not lead to the conclusion. • Example: “climate has changed naturally in the past therefore current warming must be natural”.
Premise
Conclusion
“The paleoclimate record shouts out to us that, far from being selfstabilizing, the Earth's climate system is an ornery beast which overreacts to even small nudges.” Wally Broeker
Impossible Expectations • Demanding unrealistic standards of proof before acting on the science
“0.3% consensus, not 97.1% The latest paper apparently showing 97% endorsement of a consensus that more than half of recent global warming was anthropogenic really shows only 0.3% endorsement of that now-dwindling consensus.” CHRISTOPHER MONCKTON
Cherry Picking
Consensus
Conspiracy!
Climategate
Conspiracy Theory Two distinctive traits of conspiracy theories: 1. Ascribe omnipotent power to the conspiracy
Conspiracy Theory Two distinctive traits of conspiracy theories: 1. Ascribe omnipotent power to the conspiracy 2. Evidence against the conspiracy is proof of the conspiracy
“Even though hand-picked
Dana Rohrabacher, Republican Congressman
panels of their peers held a “kangaroo court” and loudly proclaimed that there had been no wrongdoing, public confidence was justifiably shaken.”
Summary Fight sticky ideas with stickier ideas
SUCCES (Simple, Unexpected, Concrete, Credible, Emotional, Story) FLICC (Fake Experts, Logical Fallacies, Impossible Expectations, Cherry Picking, Conspiracy Theories)
www.skepticalscience.com
John Cook Global Change Institute, University of Queensland Web: http://www.skepticalscience.com Email:
[email protected]
