SEAF-Thitinan

Stressed by Strife: ASEAN from Pattaya to Preah Vihear Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak Associate Professor and Director Institute of Security and Int’l Studies Faculty of Political Science Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok Visiting Scholar, CDDRL-Humanities Center, 26 April 2010

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Southeast Asia as a region Southeast Asia as an organization Domestic strife and regional effects Premises and prospects

1. Southeast Asia as A Region 1.1 Comparative politics of Southeast Asia  570 million people (ASEAN Sec figure); GDP: $1.5trn  11 countries (ASEAN + East Timor)  All post-colonial, except Siam/Thailand  Multi-ethnic; multi-religious; multi-lingual  All influenced by overseas Chinese  All affected by Japan’s Co-Prosperity Sphere in WWII  Postwar independence movements and interstate conflicts in the region

1. Southeast Asia as A Region (cont.) 1.2 Diverse and disparate regime types  Absolute monarchy: Brunei  Constitutional monarchy: Cambodia, Malaysia (federal), Thailand  Socialist: Laos and Vietnam  Military authoritarian: Burma/Myanmar  Republic: Indonesia, Philippines, Singapore, (East Timor)

1. Southeast Asia as A Region (cont.) 1.3 Vibrant economic development  tamed tigers?; formerly ASEAN Four; Asian Values?; East Asian Miracle  1997-98 economic crisis; recovery and new trajectory 1.4 Political change and continuity: A mixed bag of democratization and autocracy  Indonesia/Malaysia/Philippines/Thailand/Sin gapore/Cambodia  Brunei/Laos/Vietnam/Burma-Myanmar 1.5 Internal conflicts and insurgencies in Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand

2. Southeast Asia as An Organization 2.1 International relations of Southeast Asia 2.2 Evolution and development:  Malphilindo; ASA; SEATO; ASEAN  Why ASEAN?: Konfrontasi; major powers/national development; ethnic and power balance 2.3 ASEAN as longest regional vehicle after 42 years; Cold War during 1967-87; economic exuberance in 1987-97; APEC (1989); AFTA (1992); ARF (1994) 2.4 No War in ASEAN; just border tensions and skirmishes

2. Southeast Asia as An Organization (cont.) 2.5 Expansion: Brunei (1984); Vietnam (1995); Laos and Burma/Myanmar (1997); Cambodia (1999) 2.6 Miracle-Meltdown; Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) under ASEAN Plus Three (APT) from 1998 2.7 GWOT (2001-08); Second Front; Separatist insurgencies 2.8 ASEAN Charter (December 2008); legal entity; 3 pillars in APSC, AEC and ASCC; ASEAN Community by 2015

2. Southeast Asia as An Organization (cont.) 2.9 Underlying dynamics of charter:  Maintaining relevance  ASEAN charter as codification of norms  Non-interference with democratizing principles (Article 1: 7)  ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights (AICOHR); People-centered ASEAN?  A personal encounter

3. Domestic strife and regional effects Perennial Burma/Myanmar albatross; ASSK’s confinement; elections in 2010  Indonesia’s frustration  Vietnam’s domestic concerns  Cambodia’s posture  Singapore’s imperative  Malaysia’s growing polarization  Philippines’ constraints  Thailand’s nadir 

3. Domestic strife and regional effects (cont.) Thai crisis and Thai chairmanship of ASEAN in mid 2008-09; two years for 4th East Asia Summit (EAS)  From Pattaya to Preah Vihear  Preah Vihear v. Phra Viharn  Hun Sen-Thaksin and Hun Sen-Abhisit  Thailand’s founding pillar to weakest link (ASSK’s comment and 16th summit machinations in April 2010) 

3. Domestic strife and regional effects (cont.) ASEAN at 42; a midlife crossroads  ASEAN Plus Three; China’s orbit  East Asian Community; Japan’s timid vision  East Asia Summit (ASEAN+6)  East Asia Summit Plus US and Russia?  Australia’s Asia-Pacific Community 

3. Domestic strife and regional effects (cont.) 

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APEC; ARF (no PD); AFTA (largest markets still external) Trends in bilateral FTAs Trilateral Summit in NEAsia; Six-Party Talks (SPT) sometimes efficacious ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting (ADMM) Shangri-La Dialogue Asian Six in G-20 An architectural search for regional order

4. Premises and prospects Centrality without performance?  Evolution of the “ASEAN Way”  Interests, institutions and identity  Domestic constraints on regionalism  Implications for the US (hub-spokes no more?)  Glass half-empty or half-full  Shallow and patchy integration (e.g. NTS) but won’t go away 