INTRODUCTION The following slide are from an early July 2014 presentation in Spokane to investors and clients of a private-lending company. The slides provide a glimpse at new developments in the Spokane/Inland Northwest region, including the addition of Stevens and Pend Oreille counties to the Spokane MSA. This presentation contains population estimates through July 1, 2013, since the 2014 numbers had not be released at the time of the presentation. Those slides will be updated with 2014 estimates when new data is released by the Census Bureau. No significant variation in trends is expected in the new data. Most of these slides are self-explanatory, but if you have questions or wish permission to quote proprietary portions of the presentation, please contact us at [email protected]
, or contact the cited original sources. Also, we have in-depth reports on some of the topics raised these slides for purchase in our online store. Thanks for your interest in spokanomics.com. We hope you’ll visit the site often. Shaun O’L. Higgins Managing Principal THEOXALISGROUPLLC 905 W. Riverside Avenue, Suite 212 Spokane, WA 99201 Scroll Down to View Slides
Ready for New Heights The INW Regional Economy: Midyear 2014 and Beyond Remarks of SHAUN O’L. HIGGINS THEOXALISGROUPLLC
© 2014 The Oxalis Group LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Caveats and Disclaimers • I’m an economic handicapper and amateur economist. I don’t do theory. • We don’t want to be self-fulfilling prophets of doom, so we tend to be positive. Please listen for “qualifying phrases.”
• Views expressed are my own and may change tomorrow. • My views may not reflect those of COGO or Secured Financial. • The accuracy or inaccuracy of any previous forecast doesn’t mean a thing. • My data, though reliably sourced, is subject to varying interpretations. • Metrics that were once relevant may no longer matter; metrics that are relevant today may not be relevant in the future. • Nothing in this presentation should be construed as investment advice or as an endorsement of any investment advisory service. • The presentation will last about 35 minutes, with brief Q&A to follow. © 2014 The Oxalis Group LLC. All Rights Reserved.
What You Will Hear A Context for Understanding Regional Economics * Demographic Status and Projections: MSAs Regional GDP Population and Income Home-value and other Real Estate Information * Job-Creation Performance and Employment Factors * Why things are looking up – and why you should be, too
Sources and Acknowledgments Grant Forsyth, Chief Economist, Avista Corp, Governor’s Economic Forecast Advisory Group Dr. Patrick Jones, Eastern Washington University, Spokane Community Indicators Kootenai County Community Indicators Chair, Spokane Mayor’s Advisory Council on Economic Vitality Steve Scranton, Washington Trust Bank Doug Tweedy, Washington State Employment Security, Labor Market & Economic Analysis Branch Job Growth Update , W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University
Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce
Sources and Acknowledgments The Spokane Journal of Business
The Spokesman-Review The Pacific Northwest Inlander U.S. Census Bureau Spokane Board of Realtors Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Ann Glendening The Economist Bloomberg Business Week The Wall Street Journal The New York Times
The Inland Northwest
Inland Northwest Basics
1,063,272 people (0.34% of U.S. Population) 39,240.9 Square Miles 23 Counties in Three States $18.1 Billion in HH Income 90,419 Business Firms $13.6 Billion in Retail Sales $24.4 Billion in GDP (about 0.17% of U.S. GDP) Sources: 2010 U.S. Census; Bureau of Economic Analysis-U.S. Department of Commerce, 2012 (covering 2010 GDP trends by Metro area; compilations, derivatives and comparatives by Shaun O’L. Higgins © 2014 The Oxalis Group LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas Metro and Micro areas are geographic entities delineated by the Office of Management and Budget for use by Federal statistical agencies in collecting, tabulating, and publishing Federal statistics. The term "Core-Based Statistical Area" (CBSA) is a collective term for both metro and micro areas. A metro area contains a core urban area of 50,000 or more population, and a micro area contains an urban core of at least 10,000 (but less than 50,000) population. Each metro or micro area consists of one or more counties and includes the counties containing the core urban area, as well as any adjacent counties that have a high degree of social and economic integration (as measured by commuting to work) with the urban core. Source: U.S. Office of Management and Budget
Inland Northwest Metro/Micro Areas Combined Statistical Area Spokane-Spokane Valley-Stevens-Pend Oreille, WA MSA, plus Coeur d’Alene, ID MSA MSAs Spokane-Spokane Valley-Stevens-Pend Oreille, WA Coeur d’Alene, ID Lewiston-Clarkston ID-WA Micropolitan Statistical Areas Moses Lake WA Moscow ID Pullman WA Sandpoint ID © 2014 The Oxalis Group LLC. All Rights Reserved.
The New Spokane MSA • Three Counties (Spokane, Stevens, Pend Oreille) • 5,641.75 square miles in area • 535,724 people (To imagine what 535,724 people looks like, think of 15-16 Martin Stadiums filled to overflowing) We now have an international border, and. . . © 2014 The Oxalis Group LLC. All Rights Reserved.
We’re Larger than Connecticut!
What it Means The new designation moves us into the Top 100 U.S. metro areas, making us more visible on the maps of business locators and retailers, and it better positions us to grow jobs, receive grants, and participate more fully in some federal programs.
Another change makes us even bigger. . .
We’re also part of a CSA (Combined Statistical Area) Our new Combined Statistical Area includes Kootenai County • Total estimated population of about 680,000. (Equal to about 58 Spokane Veteran’s Arenas packed to capacity for a basketball games!) • 71st largest Combined Metro Area in the U.S. • 6,685.68 square miles in area, making us . . .
Almost as big as New Jersey
The Spo-Koo CSA Has More People than…
. . . more people than. . .
. . .more people than. . .
POPULATION ESTIMATES April 1, 2010-July 1, 2013 Area
U.S. 308,747,716 Idaho 1,562,652 Montana 989,417 Washington 6,724,543 Lewiston-Clarkston MSA 60,888 Coeur d’Alene MSA 138,494 Spokane MSA (old definition) 471,221 Spokane MSA (new definition) 527,648
316,128,839 1,612,136 1,015,165 6,971,506 62,125 144,265 479,398 535,724
2.4 % 2.8 % 2.6 % 3.7 % 2.0 % 4.7 % 1.7 % 1.5 %
Census Bureau will release new estimates soon; no surprises expected Source: US Census Bureau, 2014 . Latest series available. Regional derivations by SOH
Population Growth Rates 2010-2013 GSI Comparative MSAs Raleigh-Cary NC Boise ID Colorado Springs CO Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA Salt Lake City UT Madison WI Reno-Sparks NV Albuquerque NM Tucson AZ Spokane WA Mobile AL
7.4% 5.5% 5.1% 5.0% 4.8% 3.6% 2.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.5% 0.3%
Source: US Census Bureau, 2014 . Latest series available. Derivations by SOH
Real GDP by Metro Area, 2010-2012 MSA
Spokane-Spokane Valley Coeur d’Alene Lewiston All U.S. Metros
1.0% -0.8% 0.8%
1.5% 0.0% -1.0%
1.7% -2.4% -0.3%
Current /Rank $17.4 billion (178) $ 3.7 billion (373) $ 1.7 billion (317) $12,207 billion
INW Regional estimate (including non-Metro): $24.4 billion (or, about 0.17% of U.S. total)
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Dept. of Commerce; regional estimate, The Oxalis Group LLC
Regional Job-Creation Performance Snapshot May 2013 to May 2014 Non-Agricultural Wage and Salary Jobs Area
Rank ‘13 Rank ’14
Spokane C d’Alene Lewiston U.S.
132 5 15 NA
280 145 269 NA
Change (Growth Rate) 0.2% 1.6% 0.4% 1.8%
Thousands of Jobs Job Growth 2013
1,400 216,300 216,800 900 57,100 58,000 100 26.900 27,000 2,399,000 136,793,000 139,192,000
From May Peaks to May 2014 United States: 138,611,000 (May 2007): Now UP 581,000 jobs, or 0.42% Spokane: 224,400 (May 2008): Still DOWN 7,600 jobs, or -3.39% Coeur d’Alene: 58,700 (May, 2008): Still DOWN 700 jobs, or -1.19% Lewiston: 28,000 (May 2007): Still DOWN 1,000 jobs, or -3.57% Data Source: Job-Growth Update, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University, June 2014 . Regional compilation and derivation : Shaun O’L. Higgins The Oxalis Group LLC, June 2014.
GSI Comparative Cities Jobs Snapshot: May Peak to May 2014 MARKET Raleigh-Cary NC Salt Lake City UT Madison WI Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA Boise-Nampa ID Colorado Springs CO Tucson AZ Mobile AL Albuquerque NM Reno-Sparks NV
May 2014 2007/08 Difference 559,300 525,800 33,500 674,900 640,100 34,800 364,500 353,100 11,400 1,825,100 1,785,400 39,700 281,000 279,300 1,700 259,700 262,100 ( 2,400) 366,600 386,100 (19,500) 174,300 186,000 (11,700) 370,300 398,000 27,700) 202,900 224,600 (21,700)
% Change 6.37% 5.44% 3.23% 2.22% 0.61% - 0.92% - 5.05% - 6.29% - 6.96% - 9.66%
© 2014The Oxalis Group LLC. All Rights Reserved.
MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME Five-Year Average, 2008-2012 Selected Geographies
Geography U.S Idaho Washington INW Region Spokane County Spokane MSA (new) Nez Perce ID Asotin WA Kootenai ID Grant WA Bonner ID Latah ID Whitman WA
MHI $53,046 $47,015 $59,374 $46,185 $49,615 $48,729 $45,567 $42,345 $48,075 $45,531 $41,379 $39,466 $34,169
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census. Latest data, March 2014. (www.census.gov)
Housing Price Caveat When using the FHFA House Price Calculator, please note that it does not project the actual value of any particular house. Rather, it projects what a given house purchased at a point in time would be worth today if it appreciated at the average appreciation rate of all homes in the area. The actual value of any house will depend on the local real estate market, house condition and age, home improvements made and needed, and many other factors. Consult a qualified real estate appraiser in your area to obtain a professional estimate of the current value of your home. Source: FHFA
The Housing Picture Housing prices have held up better in some places than others over the past five years.
If you bought a home for $100,000 in the 1st quarter of 2009… …it’s likely value today looks like this: Coeur d’Alene: $84,798 Spokane: $85,068 Lewiston: $98,796 Tri-Cities: $105,102 If you bought in the 1st quarter of 2004, it looks like this:
Lewiston: $152,050 Coeur d’Alene: $133,158 Spokane: $129,262 Tri-Cities: $123,426 Source: FHFA Home Price Calculator, June 2014. Comparatives copyright 2014, Oxalis Group LLC.
More on Real Estate Housing Sales and Price Projections Spokane County: Annualized single-unit sales, FLAT to UP 0.5-1.0%, compared to 2013. Median prices likely to be FLAT to UP 1.0-1.5%, compared to 2014. Low mortgage rates and eased lending policies have spurred first-time home-buying a bit. May and June 2014 improved the trend for both unit sales and prices, following a slow start to the year. Kootenai County: Strong market in first six months. Annualized single-unit sales, UP 6.5-7.5%, compared to 2013. 2014 median prices likely to be UP 8.0-9.2%, compared to 2013.
Apartment Vacancy Rates and Rents Spokane County (countywide): 55th tightest market of 275 markets ranked by REIS. Current vacancy rate about 4.9%. Market ranks 143rd (REIS) in rent-growth, about 0.4%. New construction and affordability issues have put governors on rent growth, but demand remains strong and points to continuing, but slow, growth in rent. Kootenai County: Vacancy rates likely to rise bit, putting pressure on rental growth, both due, in part, to expansion of apartment projects in 2013. Oxalis Group LLC projections. Copyright 2014, The Oxalis Group LLC
Commercial Real Estate RETAIL SPACE In 2013, both Spokane and Kootenai counties, vacancy rates fell (dramatically in Kootenai County). Rents held steady. For 2014, the picture is largely the same, with some nuances:
* At the end of May 2014, Spokane ranked 40th in the nation in retail vacancy rate among 190 markets measured by REIS, which reported a rate of 9.8%. The market ranked only 172, however, on rent growth, at -0.4%. Kootenai County is not ranked by REIS, but various reports from there by leading commercial agents, indicate that retail-sector rents have stabilized in the $10-$11 range, with vacancy rates expected to hold steady or fall a bit at the 4-5% range in Hayden , the 6-7% range in Coeur d’Alene, and to hold or fall slightly from a rate of about 17% in Post Falls. Oxalis Group LLC analysis based on private discussions and/or published reports from reis.com, NAI Black, Kiemle & Hagood, Valbridge Property Advisors, Spokane Board of Realtors, and others.
Office Space SPOKANE (county wide)
Current vacancy rate of about 12.8%, but varies greatly based on cities and areas within cities (down from about 18% in 2010). REIS rank 27. Rent-growth essentially flat at 0.3%. Forecast: Slow but steady progress on both rents and vacancy in2014, but still a tenant market in most areas. KOOTENAI (county wide)
Rents flat and vacancy rate steady. Forecast: Same as Spokane: steady progress. Both markets anticipating growth improved rents and vacancies in 2015, with 2014 holding at 2013 levels. Oxalis Group LLC analysis based on private discussions and/or published reports from reis.com, NAI Black, Kiemle & Hagood, Valbridge Property Advisors, Spokane Board of Realtors, and others.
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