the labour market context: the demand side of the equation

January 6, 2018 | Author: Anonymous | Category: Business, Economics
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THE LABOUR MARKET CONTEXT: THE DEMAND SIDE OF THE EQUATION

Presentation by Tom Zizys From Research to Practice Symposium March 13, 2013

Outline of presentation • • • • • • •

Changing hiring and promotion practices Occupations: the hourglass labour market Broad trends in employment incomes Post-secondary degree holders Educational attainment and entry-level jobs Job-education match What can be done?

CHANGING HIRING AND PROMOTION PRACTICES

CAREER PATHWAYS IN A 1950s COMPANY

From “Working Better: Creating a High-Performing Labour Market in Ontario” Metcalf Foundation

THE 1950s CORPORATE STRUCTURE

The labour market “perfect storm” LATE 60s/EARLY 70s: STAGFLATION _____________________________

The labour market “perfect storm” LATE 60s/EARLY 70s: STAGFLATION _____________________________

The “big ideas” matter

FRAGMENTED CAREER PATH IN A 1990s FIRM

THE INTEGRATED FIRM NOW BECOMES THE NETWORKED FIRM

Entry-level jobs not what they used to be • • • • •

More casual, part-time and temp work Wages dropped for entry-level jobs Drop in minimum wage in real terms More income inequality (1): intra-firm equity More income inequality (2): lower status jobs have less bargaining power • Less unionization • Less opportunity for advancement

OCCUPATIONS: THE HOURGLASS LABOUR MARKET

From study for Toronto Workforce Innovation Group: An Economy Out of Shape: Changing the Hourglass

Comparison of distribution of jobs by skill categories, Canada, 1996-2006 1996

2006

Comparison of distribution of jobs by skill categories, Ontario, 1991-2006

Change in employment shares by pay level, Europe and United States, 1993-2006

IMF, World Economic Outlook, 2011, p. 42

Percentage change in employment share of all jobs, by skill content, United States, 1981-2011 20%

16.1% 15%

10%

10.6% 9.2% 8.6% 4.6%

5%

1981-1991 0.9%

0%

1991-2001 2001-2011

-5%

-5.6% -6.6% -10%

-11.0% -15%

Non-Routine Cognitive

Routine

Non-Routine Manual

BROAD TRENDS IN EMPLOYMENT INCOMES

Average incomes, full-time/full-year workers, males and females, Toronto and rest of Ontario, 1995-2005 (2005 dollars) Males, Toronto

Males, rest of Ontario

120000

120000

100000

100000

80000

80000 K-workers

60000

Middle jobs

40000

Entry-level

K-workers 60000 40000

20000

20000

0

0 1995

2000

Middle jobs

2005

Entry-level

1995

Females, Toronto

2000

2005

Females, rest of Ontario

120000

120000

100000

100000

80000

80000 K-workers

60000

Middle jobs

40000

Entry-level

K-workers 60000 40000

20000

20000

0

0 1995

2000

2005

Middle jobs

Entry-level

1995

2000

2005

WORKERS WITH POST-SECONDARY DEGREES

Percentage of population that has attained tertiary education, 25-34 and 55-64 year olds, 2009

OECD, Education at a Glance, 2011

Canadian college graduate earnings (25-64 year olds) compared to other countries (2010 or latest available year) Japan 34.7% Canada United States

Australia Germany Sweden

10.1%

23.1%

13.3%

19.3%

10.2%

16.4%

8.1%

14.8%

10.9%

14.7%

5.0%

United Kingdom

13.3%

OECD average

13.0%

France At or below half of the median

11.6%

9.9%

13.3% 12.6%

More than 2 times the median

OECD, Education at a Glance, 2011

Canadian university graduate earnings (25-64 year olds) compared to other countries (2009 or latest available year) Canada United States Germany Sweden

17.6%

29.4%

12.8%

30.3%

12.1% 10.9%

France

10.1%

Australia

9.7%

OECD average

9.3%

Japan

8.9%

United Kingdom

7.7%

At or below half of the median

27.2% 14.1% 25.1% 18.4% 26.7% 34.7% 28.0% More than 2 times the median

OECD, Education at a Glance, 2011

Share of college and university diploma and degree holders, by occupation, Canada, Ontario, Toronto CMA & Toronto, 2006

JOB-EDUCATION MATCH

Job-education match, by education level, Canada, 2006 80% 68%

70% 60%

60% 54%

50% 40% 30%

Closely related Somewhat related

28%

Not-at-all related

20%

20%

12% 10% 0%

Non-university postsecondary certificate

University degree or certificate, bachelor's or below

University degree, above bachelor's

Statistics Canada: Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics, 2006

Mean hourly wage by education level and job education relatedness, Canada, 2006 $40

$37 $34

$35

Mean Hourly Wage ($)

$31 $30 $25 $20

$23 $22

$29 $24

$22 $18

$15 $10 $5 $0 Non-university postsecondary Closely related

University, Bachelor's or below Somewhat related

University, above Bachelor's

Not at all related

Statistics Canada: Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics, 2006

WHAT CAN BE DONE?

A strategy with three dimensions

Employer practices Workforce development → increased productivity → better jobs → higher pay • Overwhelming evidence base exists for the business case for workforce development • Numerous measurable indicators: turnover, absenteeism, recruitment costs, productivity, value added, firm survival rate, innovation • Enhance management and HR competencies → Good literature reviews: NCVER; UKCES

Enabling environment The information, the networks and the processes needed to make workforce development happen • Data and analysis: Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics; Canadian Council on Learning; Canadian Policy Research Networks • Model practices: Developing a toolkit based on research and pilot projects • Intermediaries: Workforce development boards; unions • Sector strategies: value of sector councils • Linkages: workforce development to: → productivity → innovation → economic development

Norms & values (1) A deliberate paradigm shift • The value of government • Evidence-based policies • Tackling inequality  Pre-distribution (flat median wage; increasing wages at top)  Income tax; EI coverage; drawing attention to tax avoidance

• Restraining shareholder value  Reaffirming other obligations: to economy, to employees, to community  Incentives for longer-term investment (shares; bonuses)  Slowing the rate of transactions (Tobin tax)

Norms & values (2) Privileging good workforce development practices • Features: permanent jobs; workplace training; career advancement; unions; apprenticeships; experiential learning; paid internships; gender equity; living wage • Using government procurement as lever • Celebrating top workplace practices • Child care • International agreements: raising the bar on labour practices; corporate taxation

QUESTIONS? DISCUSSION

Tom Zizys [email protected] Metcalf Foundation http://metcalffoundation.com/publications-resources/view/working-better-creating-a-high-performing-labour-market-in-ontario/

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