Tools for Workforce Planning Virginia McCririck
Six Steps to Workforce Planning •
1) Define Purpose of the Plan
2) Map the Service Change and how it will impact on the workforce
3) Assess demand for the workforce based on the service delivery
4) Assess supply of staff available now and in the future
5) Develop and action plan to bridge gaps in demand and supply and in the future
6) Implement and review
Step 1 – Defining the Plan •
Purpose – Problems to resolve? – What does plan aim to achieve?
Scope – What organisations are covered by the plan? – What types of staff are covered? – What client groups are covered? – Timescale
Ownership – Who owns the plan? – Stakeholder involvement?
What tools will help with Step 1? •
Stake holder mapping
PESTLE analysis - key drivers for change
Power/Interest Matrix of Stakeholders Low 1 A. Minimal Effort 1
Level of Interest 3 4 B. Keep Informed
5 Service Usersh
h Adult Social Care CSV/Volunteers
h Office for Third Sector h Social Enterprise Unit h
h Carers Forum
C. Keep Satisfied
D. Key Players
CTALD Team h
h Supporting People Team
h Staff/TU’s Commissionersh Elected Members h
5 High Code h Advocates & Supporters h Blocks & Critics h Neutral
Continuum of Commitment Analysis Stake- Obstructing No Let It holder Commitment Happen A
Make it Happen
Help it Happen
= Currently O = Where we need them to be for successful change X
Based on Beckhard & Harris (1987) Organisational Transitions: Managing Complex Change. For more information see NHS Institute’s Social Movement Handbook “The Power of One – The Power of Many”
Pestle Analysis - Key Drivers for Change Political
Organisation Economic Factors Social-Cultural Factors Technological
Appraise your environment Use a SWOT Analysis Involve staff and other stakeholders – – – –
What do we do well? What could we do better? What are we not making the most of? What are we worried about?
Step 2 – Map the Service Change Process of Service Re-design to meet service user choice, financial constraints, improved efficiency, changes in care through technology Critical stage - focus on intended benefits and what is achievable Key to get wide stakeholder involvement in this step •
Current baseline - of service costs and performance measures
What forces will support the change and what will resist it?
What are the options? What scenarios for service change have been considered?
What is the preferred service delivery model? Is it realistic given financial realities? Will it lead to improved outcomes for service users?
What tools will help with Step 2? •
Culture web mapping
Tools for service improvement – – – – –
LEAN methodologies Systems thinking Action learning Allowing space for new things to emerge
Scenario Planning What is it?
Provides a framework to consider what the future holds • Identifies new risks and challenges in the future - helps to prepare for the unexpected • Enables you to expand your vision and think of alternative futures • Most useful when there is limited clarity on the future • Helps to balance intuition, judgment and fact • Recognises that forecasting is notoriously difficult Where has it been used?
Private sector companies, eg, Shell, Body Shop, • NHS How do you do it? •
There is no set approach - depends on organisation, situation etc…
One approach to Scenario Planning • • • • • •
Identify issues and forces that will shape the service and/or care pathway over a defined period of time Identify those that will have most impact Identify those that give the most uncertainty Identify 2 issues that cause most worry from this list and map against each other, taking a positive and negative view of each one Consider if there may be any wild cards coming into play Then consider what it will look like in each of the scenarios you have created – Identify what this will mean for the service design – Identify what this will mean for the workforce – Identify what this will mean for service users – Identify what this mean for partners along the delivery chain Are any common issues identified? What are the risk factors that you need to mitigate against?
Demand and Supply Scenarios Quadrants DEMAND for institutional care LOW New World Choices Providers diversify, innovate & respond. Supports different supply against rising demography & changing expectations. Good outcomes
Mixed bag – Whose vision? Some specialist provision grows but also mainstream institutional investment undermines choice & control maximisation.
DEMAND for institutional care HIGH
Specialist Growth Specialised provision refines & matches rising demand in specialist areas. Supports maximising independence choice and control.
SUPPLY for institutional care FALLS
SUPPLY for institutional care RISES
Markets Rule OK? Availability sucks in people to institutional placements. Perverse drivers and dysfunctional outcomes for people. x
Scenario Planning – useful links: •
Improvement & Development Agency for Local Government (IDeA) – www.idea.gov.uk
Shell - www.shell.com
Culture Web Mapping
The way we do things around here - very hard to change Tool which enables a group to:
• • • • •
Identify what they “take for granted” Identify barriers to change Identify those things which will be very difficult to change Identify those things which need to change Develop practical ideas for implementing strategic change
Extracted from Johnson and Scholes
Cultural “From – To” Table Example From…
Difficulty getting staff to work as a team
Staff calling in on their day off to help achieve the services targets
Staff bringing problems and complaints to manager to sort
“This was the problem and this is what we’ve done about it”
Clients told when to get out of bed
Clients able to choose when to get up in the morning
Step 3 – Assess Workforce Demand •
Assess current & future demand for services – Joint Strategic Needs Assessment – POPPI data – SAS data
What is the impact of service re-design - on tasks and role design?
What is the impact of new technology - on tasks and role design?
What tasks could be better performed elsewhere in the delivery chain for the care pathway?
What achieves the best outcomes for service users?
Review this once you have completed Step 4 - how realistic is your new service model?
What tools will help with Step 3? Demand forecasting • Ratio Analysis • Trend analysis • Cost analysis Benchmarking • productivity level comparison, internal and external Systems thinking
Role re-design • Aiming to achieve a picture of the sort of workforce you will require numbers and skills
Step 4 – Assess Workforce Supply •
The current workforce - what are the key characteristics of it?
Workforce forecasting - internal and external supply of workers
Options for increasing supply?
Options for working differently?
Key Steps in Internal Supply Forecasting •
Obtain data on current workforce numbers and skills in each skills cluster/occupational group for whom forecast is to be generated
Analyse each group by age, length of service, diversity classification, current performance, future potential
Forecast future ‘wastage’ (i.e. losses) based on trends in past turnover and estimates of the likelihood that these will continue
Look at past trends in transfer/promotion out of the occupational group to other occupational groups in the organisation
External Supply Forecasting •
Research into skills shortages and recruitment difficulties
Trends and projections in the educational output of people with the relevant skills and qualifications (possibly locally, nationally and internationally)
Trends in population movements in the area(s) concerned or wider migratory patterns nationally or internationally
Competitive factors in the labour market, locally or more widely
Changing expectations about work and working conditions or benefits
Pay rates operating in the local labour market
Step 5 – Developing an Action Plan •
Risks to achieving the outcomes
Managing the change
Internal strategies (‘grow’ your own) could involve: •
Work restructuring and skills change
Changing (eg flexible) work patterns
Training and development
External strategies (‘buy in’) could involve: •
External recruitment of qualified staff
External recruitment of trainee staff
Other measures to influence supply, such as educational sponsorship
Menu of recruitment and retention options available to councils Outward facing
• Strategic partnering
• Forecast supply and demand
• Shared services
• Work across organisations
• Employability of local workforce
• Branding – ‘employer of choice’
• Retain local workforce
• Better use of agency staff
• Scenario planning
• Pay and benefits
• Target under-represented groups
• Balance workforce profile
• Flexible working
• Total rewards package
• Reduce sickness absence
• Technology i.e mobile working
Step 6 - Implementation, Monitoring and Review
Revisit Each Step - it is an iterative process
Helpful Resources • • • • • • • •
“Tomorrow’s People” - Audit Commission Report 2008 - includes some group work exercises - www.audit-commission.gov.uk “What does a Commissioning Framework Look Like?” - ADASS 2007 www.aruspex.com - American website with some helpful resources Improvement and Development Agency website on workforce - some helpful examples of learning from integrated workforce planning Skills for Care - www.skillsforcare.org.uk Skills for Health - www.skillsforhealth.org.uk South West Regional Efficiency & Improvement Partnership – www.southwestiep.gov.uk/skillsdevelopment/lean.htm Virginia McCririck, Transforming Adult Social Care Regional Implementation Lead for Workforce - [email protected]
Mobile contact - 07767 647447