towards an Open Humanitarian Risk Index A comprehensive, widely-accepted and open evidence base with which to reach common understanding and coordinated action
Tony Craig, co-chair IASC Sub Working Group on Preparedness Tom De Groeve, Joint Research Centre of the European Commission
OHRI
towards an Open Humanitarian Risk Index
Open Humanitarian Risk Index A shared, transparent humanitarian risk index with global coverage, regional / sub-national detail and
seasonal variation
22 May 2013
2
OHRI
towards an Open Humanitarian Risk Index
Why do we need an Open Humanitarian Risk Index? Goals • OHRI will help humanitarians, donors, member states
Objectives • Support DRR, funding and readiness decisions with evidence
and other actors focus DRR and emergency readiness
• Complement existing
on a common risk picture
risk-focused early warning at the IASC
SWG for Preparedness
• OHRI will be open
needs assessments in ECHO and other
with all data and methods available
organisations
free online
• Enable regional / sub-national perspective 22 May 2013
3
OHRI
towards an Open Humanitarian Risk Index
5 principles • Global coverage
• Continuity
datasets with broad global coverage international standards for the
five years of historical data
• Transparency
calculation of missing values
methodology and data sources will be
future development will aim for
published and available for review
subnational analysis
• Flexibility
• Openness
a standalone model to establish a
evidence collectively gathered
common, basic understanding of risk
owned by the public, agencies,
provide a framework for incorporating
governments, NGOs and academia,
additional components to allow for
Participation of agencies that generate
more nuanced analysis of specific issues
much of the source data
or geographic regions.
22 May 2013
4
OHRI
towards an Open Humanitarian Risk Index
Current partners • OCHA
• ECHO
• UNICEF
• DFID (UK)
• WFP
• JRC
• UNHCR • ISDR • WHO • Interested
• FAO
World Economic Forum, World Bank
22 May 2013
5
OHRI
towards an Open Humanitarian Risk Index
Risk Model • Based on previous work
• Model
Global Focus Model (OCHA)
Multiplicative model
• 2006-2013
Hazard: natural and man-made
Global Needs Assessment (ECHO)
Vulnerability: population
• 2004-2013
Capacity: emergency management
• Based on available data
x
Mostly provided by partners (e.g. refugees, health, children)
22 May 2013
x 6
OHRI
towards an Open Humanitarian Risk Index
Statistical soundness • Joint Research Center of the European Commission
• Issues
Database implementation
Multiplicative model Geometric average versus arithmetic
Statistical audit
average
• Also for HDI etc.
Weights and implicit weights Basket independent normalization
Missing data handling
22 May 2013
7
OHRI
towards an Open Humanitarian Risk Index
Seasonal risk index • Hazard Seasons: cyclone, monsoon El Nino, ENSO
• Vulnerability Crop seasons, migration patterns
22 May 2013
8
OHRI
towards an Open Humanitarian Risk Index
Regional / sub-national risk index • Selected countries or regions In collaboration with countries
• Same overall methodology as global Substitution of subindicators allowed
22 May 2013
9
OHRI
towards an Open Humanitarian Risk Index
Additional component: Crisis Index • Goal: continuous update of the OHRI requires up-to-date data
• How is this used? Not used in standard OHRI Used in specific versions of
• Fastest changing data are:
methodology (e.g. ECHO’s Global Needs
Natural Hazards (recent disasters)
Assessment, which emphasizes new and
Human Hazards (new conflicts)
ongoing hazards)
Refugee / IDP population Crisis Index
Conflict Refugees / IDPs Recent disasters
22 May 2013
10
OHRI
towards an Open Humanitarian Risk Index
Timeline… time to join? • October 2012: conceived by core group, joining initiatives at UN and in European Commission • January 2013: proof of concept, analysis of correlation of existing models • March 2013: first model
Please talk to us to participate • June-August 2013: building partnerships and collecting support • October 2013: technical meeting, early results • January 2014: First publication of OHRI
• May 2013: public presentation of initiative at Global Platform 22 May 2013
11
OHRI
towards an Open Humanitarian Risk Index
Web site and Contacts
ohri.jrc.ec.europa.eu IASC SWG on Preparedness: Co-chairs
[email protected] [email protected]
Joint Research Centre (technical contact point)
[email protected]
22 May 2013
12
OHRI