Oklahoma Population Projections Through 2075 Presented by:
Steve Barker Policy, Research and Economic Analysis
Today’s Topics of Discussion
Common projection methodology Oklahoma’s population trends Projections for Tulsa MSA counties Questions and answers
Standard Projection Formula State level projections start with 2010 Decennial Census counts and follow forecasting routines developed by the US Census Bureau:
-APopulation in the current year
-EPopulation projection for the year
+
+
-BBirths in the current year
-FBirths in the next year*
-
-
-CDeaths in the current year
-GDeaths in the next year
+
+
-DNet migration
-HNet migration
=
=
-EPopulation projection for the next year
-IPopulation projection for the next year
-F- *Based on fertility rates and # of women of child bearing age
Who is included in projections? Everybody! • All civilian residents living within the state • US Armed Forces stationed within Oklahoma • Prisoners, including out of state prisoners held at private prisons located within the state
Projection of births and deaths Birth and death rates assumed to remain constant. Births
Deaths
Birth rates generally declining across the United States and in Oklahoma
Health care technology improving
Hispanic population increasing
Hispanic population has higher birth rate As percentage of Hispanics increases, rate of decline in the state’s overall birth rate expected to slow, stall or reverse
Oklahoma’s smoking reduction programs and diabetes awareness Oklahoma is among the youngest states in the nation Obesity epidemic – two thirds of state may be obese by 2030
Oklahoma’s net migration history • 1970 to 1983: Oklahoma boomed – Peak annual growth of 3.6% in 1982 – Double digit annual percentage growth in some less populated counties • And then came the oil bust… • 1987: state’s annual population growth rate dropped to -1.3%.
Net migration: what’s the norm? • 1960 to 2011: Oklahoma’s population gain due to net migration averaged around 10,000 people annually – Swings from +80,500 in 1982 to -61,000 in 1987
• 1990 to today: Oklahoma’s average annual net migration gain just under 15,000
County projections handled differently • For 64 counties, used straight linear regression trendline formulas – Based on population patterns from 1960 to 2011 • For 13 counties, all in western Oklahoma, straight linear regression formulas gave unrealistic results – Alfalfa, Cimarron, Dewey, Ellis, Grant, Greer, Harmon, Harper, Kiowa, Roger Mills, Tillman, Washita and Woods • For these 13 counties, a curved, or power, trendline was judged to be a better fit
Matching up two methodologies • Census Bureau population estimates based on birth, death and migration data • They have situations where sum of parts doesn’t equal the expected whole • They use a balancing figure that effectively serves as a “margin of error” • This report used similar approach • Between 2010 and 2075, the required adjustment averaged 0.2% of each year’s total population.
Oklahoma’s population trends
OK Population Concentration: 1910
OK Population Concentration: 2010
OK Population: Peak Decades
Population Growth: 1960 to 2010 Totals
Source: US Census Bureau’s Decennial Census and Population Estimates Programs
Year Over Year Population Growth: 1960 to 2010
Source: US Census Bureau’s Decennial Census and Population Estimates Programs
Oklahoma: Statewide Population 2012 to 2075 Forecast Based on Sum of Individual County Forecasts
5,560,007
6,000,000
5,000,000
3,751,351 4,000,000
3,450,654 3,145,585 3,025,290 2,559,229 2,328,284
3,000,000
2,396,0402,336,434 2,233,351 2,028,283 2,000,000
1,657,155
1,000,000
Oklahoma Annual Estimates 1960-2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division) Oklahoma Forecast 2012-2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce) Oklahoma Decennial Census 1910-2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
2075
2070
2065
2060
2055
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
0
Projections by Age Age 00 to 04 Age 05 to 09 Age 10 to 14 Age 15 to 19 Age 20 to 24 Age 25 to 29 Age 30 to 34 Age 35 to 39 Age 40 to 44 Age 45 to 49 Age 50 to 54 Age 55 to 59 Age 60 to 64 Age 65 to 69 Age 70 to 74 Age 75 to 79 Age 80 to 84 Age 85+ Total Population
Statewide population projections by age group 2010 2075 Population As % Projected Population 264,126 7.0% 347,853 259,336 6.9% 349,177 253,664 6.8% 350,455 264,484 7.1% 350,949 269,242 7.2% 350,816 265,737 7.1% 350,657 241,018 6.4% 350,293 232,742 6.2% 349,324 228,195 6.1% 347,057 261,242 7.0% 342,806 264,369 7.0% 335,832 235,969 6.3% 325,586 204,513 5.5% 310,576 159,392 4.2% 289,062 121,075 3.2% 258,716 95,051 2.5% 217,121 69,284 1.8% 166,952 61,912 1.7% 166,777 3,751,351
100.0%
5,560,007
As % 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.2% 6.2% 6.0% 5.9% 5.6% 5.2% 4.7% 3.9% 3.0% 3.0% 100.0%
Projections for Tulsa MSA counties
Creek County 2012 to 2075 Forecast Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011 120,000
109,751
100,000
80,000 67,367
62,480 64,115 60,000
69,967
59,016 60,915
55,503 43,143
45,532 40,495
40,000 26,223 20,000
Creek County Annual Estimates 1960-2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division) Creek Forecast 2012-2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce) Creek Decennial Census 1910-2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census) Linear Trendline
2075
2070
2065
2060
2055
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
0
Okmulgee County 2012 to 2075 Forecast Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011 60,000 55,072
56,558 50,101
50,000
44,406
44,561
36,945 35,358
40,000
39,169
36,490
39,685
40,069
30,000 21,115 20,000
10,000
Okmulgee County Annual Estimates 1960-2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division) Okmulgee Forecast 2012-2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Okmulgee Decennial Census 1910-2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census) Linear Trendline
2075
2070
2065
2060
2055
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
0
Osage County 2012 to 2075 Forecast Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011 80,000 71,916
60,000 47,472
47,334
44,437 41,645
41,502
40,000
20,000
36,536
39,327 33,071 32,441 29,750
20,101
Osage County Annual Estimates 1960-2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division) Osage Forecast 2012-2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce) Osage Decennial Census 1910-2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census) Linear Trendline
2075
2070
2065
2060
2055
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
0
Pawnee County 2012 to 2075 Forecast Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011 30000 24,929 25000 19,126 19,882
20000
16,612 16,577
17,395
17,332
15,575
15,310 15000
13,616 11,338 10,884
10000
5000
Pawnee County Annual Estimates 1960-2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division) Pawnee Forecast 2012-2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce) Pawnee Decennial Census 1910-2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census) Linear Trendline
2075
2070
2065
2060
2055
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
0
Rogers County 2012 to 2075 Forecast Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011 200,000 173,122
160,000
120,000 86,905 70,641
80,000 55,170 46,436 28,425
40,000
21,078 18,956 17,736 17,605
19,532 20,614
Rogers County Annual Estimates 1960-2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division) Rogers Forecast 2012-2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce) Rogers Decennial Census 1910-2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census) Linear Trendline
2075
2070
2065
2060
2055
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
0
Tulsa County 2012 to 2075 Forecast Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011 1,000,000 934,215
800,000
603,403 563,299
600,000
503,341 470,593 401,663 346,038
400,000
251,686 193,363 187,574 200,000
109,023 34,995
Tulsa County Annual Estimates 1960-2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division) Tulsa Forecast 2012-2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Tulsa Decennial Census 1910-2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census) Linear Trendline
2075
2070
2065
2060
2055
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
0
Wagoner County 2012 to 2075 Forecast Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011
150,000
144,991 125,000
100,000 73,085 75,000 57,491 41,801
50,000
47,883
22,086 22,428 21,642 22,163 21,371 16,741 15,673 25,000
Wagoner County Annual Estimates 1960-2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division) Wagoner Forecast 2012-2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce) Wagoner Decennial Census 1910-2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census) Linear Trendline
2075
2070
2065
2060
2055
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
0
Tulsa 7 County MSA (Creek, Okmulgee, Osage, Pawnee, Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner) 2012 to 2075 Forecast Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011 1,600,000 1,503,330 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000
937,478 711,652
800,000
761,019
859,532
574,229 503,090
600,000 416,847 321,213
400,000
422,350 400,584
200,000 159,588
Tulsa County MSA County Annual Estimates 1960-2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division) Tulsa County MSA Forecast 2012-2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce) Tulsa County MSA Decennial Census 1910-2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census) Linear Trendline
2075
2070
2065
2060
2055
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
0
Population Rankings 2012-2075 County
Population Rank 2012
Population Rank 2075
Creek
11
10
Okmulgee
27
29
Osage
16
17
Pawnee
42
41
Rogers
6
5
Tulsa
2
2
Wagoner
8
7
With all that said, predicting the future is a bit like this…
So wish me luck!
For more information: www.okcommerce.gov/data Email:
[email protected] Twitter: @okdatacenter
