Tulsa MSA Population Projections

January 13, 2018 | Author: Anonymous | Category: Science, Health Science, Pediatrics
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Oklahoma Population Projections Through 2075 Presented by:

Steve Barker Policy, Research and Economic Analysis

Today’s Topics of Discussion

   

Common projection methodology Oklahoma’s population trends Projections for Tulsa MSA counties Questions and answers

Standard Projection Formula State level projections start with 2010 Decennial Census counts and follow forecasting routines developed by the US Census Bureau:

-APopulation in the current year

-EPopulation projection for the year

+

+

-BBirths in the current year

-FBirths in the next year*

-

-

-CDeaths in the current year

-GDeaths in the next year

+

+

-DNet migration

-HNet migration

=

=

-EPopulation projection for the next year

-IPopulation projection for the next year

-F- *Based on fertility rates and # of women of child bearing age

Who is included in projections? Everybody! • All civilian residents living within the state • US Armed Forces stationed within Oklahoma • Prisoners, including out of state prisoners held at private prisons located within the state

Projection of births and deaths Birth and death rates assumed to remain constant. Births

Deaths

Birth rates generally declining across the United States and in Oklahoma

Health care technology improving

Hispanic population increasing

Hispanic population has higher birth rate As percentage of Hispanics increases, rate of decline in the state’s overall birth rate expected to slow, stall or reverse

Oklahoma’s smoking reduction programs and diabetes awareness Oklahoma is among the youngest states in the nation Obesity epidemic – two thirds of state may be obese by 2030

Oklahoma’s net migration history • 1970 to 1983: Oklahoma boomed – Peak annual growth of 3.6% in 1982 – Double digit annual percentage growth in some less populated counties • And then came the oil bust… • 1987: state’s annual population growth rate dropped to -1.3%.

Net migration: what’s the norm? • 1960 to 2011: Oklahoma’s population gain due to net migration averaged around 10,000 people annually – Swings from +80,500 in 1982 to -61,000 in 1987

• 1990 to today: Oklahoma’s average annual net migration gain just under 15,000

County projections handled differently • For 64 counties, used straight linear regression trendline formulas – Based on population patterns from 1960 to 2011 • For 13 counties, all in western Oklahoma, straight linear regression formulas gave unrealistic results – Alfalfa, Cimarron, Dewey, Ellis, Grant, Greer, Harmon, Harper, Kiowa, Roger Mills, Tillman, Washita and Woods • For these 13 counties, a curved, or power, trendline was judged to be a better fit

Matching up two methodologies • Census Bureau population estimates based on birth, death and migration data • They have situations where sum of parts doesn’t equal the expected whole • They use a balancing figure that effectively serves as a “margin of error” • This report used similar approach • Between 2010 and 2075, the required adjustment averaged 0.2% of each year’s total population.

Oklahoma’s population trends

OK Population Concentration: 1910

OK Population Concentration: 2010

OK Population: Peak Decades

Population Growth: 1960 to 2010 Totals

Source: US Census Bureau’s Decennial Census and Population Estimates Programs

Year Over Year Population Growth: 1960 to 2010

Source: US Census Bureau’s Decennial Census and Population Estimates Programs

Oklahoma: Statewide Population 2012 to 2075 Forecast Based on Sum of Individual County Forecasts

5,560,007

6,000,000

5,000,000

3,751,351 4,000,000

3,450,654 3,145,585 3,025,290 2,559,229 2,328,284

3,000,000

2,396,0402,336,434 2,233,351 2,028,283 2,000,000

1,657,155

1,000,000

Oklahoma Annual Estimates 1960-2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division) Oklahoma Forecast 2012-2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce) Oklahoma Decennial Census 1910-2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)

2075

2070

2065

2060

2055

2050

2045

2040

2035

2030

2025

2020

2015

2010

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

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1965

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1910

0

Projections by Age Age 00 to 04 Age 05 to 09 Age 10 to 14 Age 15 to 19 Age 20 to 24 Age 25 to 29 Age 30 to 34 Age 35 to 39 Age 40 to 44 Age 45 to 49 Age 50 to 54 Age 55 to 59 Age 60 to 64 Age 65 to 69 Age 70 to 74 Age 75 to 79 Age 80 to 84 Age 85+ Total Population

Statewide population projections by age group 2010 2075 Population As % Projected Population 264,126 7.0% 347,853 259,336 6.9% 349,177 253,664 6.8% 350,455 264,484 7.1% 350,949 269,242 7.2% 350,816 265,737 7.1% 350,657 241,018 6.4% 350,293 232,742 6.2% 349,324 228,195 6.1% 347,057 261,242 7.0% 342,806 264,369 7.0% 335,832 235,969 6.3% 325,586 204,513 5.5% 310,576 159,392 4.2% 289,062 121,075 3.2% 258,716 95,051 2.5% 217,121 69,284 1.8% 166,952 61,912 1.7% 166,777 3,751,351

100.0%

5,560,007

As % 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.2% 6.2% 6.0% 5.9% 5.6% 5.2% 4.7% 3.9% 3.0% 3.0% 100.0%

Projections for Tulsa MSA counties

Creek County 2012 to 2075 Forecast Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011 120,000

109,751

100,000

80,000 67,367

62,480 64,115 60,000

69,967

59,016 60,915

55,503 43,143

45,532 40,495

40,000 26,223 20,000

Creek County Annual Estimates 1960-2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division) Creek Forecast 2012-2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce) Creek Decennial Census 1910-2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census) Linear Trendline

2075

2070

2065

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2050

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2020

2015

2010

2005

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Okmulgee County 2012 to 2075 Forecast Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011 60,000 55,072

56,558 50,101

50,000

44,406

44,561

36,945 35,358

40,000

39,169

36,490

39,685

40,069

30,000 21,115 20,000

10,000

Okmulgee County Annual Estimates 1960-2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division) Okmulgee Forecast 2012-2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)

Okmulgee Decennial Census 1910-2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census) Linear Trendline

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Osage County 2012 to 2075 Forecast Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011 80,000 71,916

60,000 47,472

47,334

44,437 41,645

41,502

40,000

20,000

36,536

39,327 33,071 32,441 29,750

20,101

Osage County Annual Estimates 1960-2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division) Osage Forecast 2012-2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce) Osage Decennial Census 1910-2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census) Linear Trendline

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Pawnee County 2012 to 2075 Forecast Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011 30000 24,929 25000 19,126 19,882

20000

16,612 16,577

17,395

17,332

15,575

15,310 15000

13,616 11,338 10,884

10000

5000

Pawnee County Annual Estimates 1960-2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division) Pawnee Forecast 2012-2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce) Pawnee Decennial Census 1910-2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census) Linear Trendline

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Rogers County 2012 to 2075 Forecast Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011 200,000 173,122

160,000

120,000 86,905 70,641

80,000 55,170 46,436 28,425

40,000

21,078 18,956 17,736 17,605

19,532 20,614

Rogers County Annual Estimates 1960-2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division) Rogers Forecast 2012-2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce) Rogers Decennial Census 1910-2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census) Linear Trendline

2075

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Tulsa County 2012 to 2075 Forecast Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011 1,000,000 934,215

800,000

603,403 563,299

600,000

503,341 470,593 401,663 346,038

400,000

251,686 193,363 187,574 200,000

109,023 34,995

Tulsa County Annual Estimates 1960-2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division) Tulsa Forecast 2012-2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)

Tulsa Decennial Census 1910-2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census) Linear Trendline

2075

2070

2065

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Wagoner County 2012 to 2075 Forecast Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011

150,000

144,991 125,000

100,000 73,085 75,000 57,491 41,801

50,000

47,883

22,086 22,428 21,642 22,163 21,371 16,741 15,673 25,000

Wagoner County Annual Estimates 1960-2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division) Wagoner Forecast 2012-2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce) Wagoner Decennial Census 1910-2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census) Linear Trendline

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Tulsa 7 County MSA (Creek, Okmulgee, Osage, Pawnee, Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner) 2012 to 2075 Forecast Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011 1,600,000 1,503,330 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000

937,478 711,652

800,000

761,019

859,532

574,229 503,090

600,000 416,847 321,213

400,000

422,350 400,584

200,000 159,588

Tulsa County MSA County Annual Estimates 1960-2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division) Tulsa County MSA Forecast 2012-2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce) Tulsa County MSA Decennial Census 1910-2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census) Linear Trendline

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Population Rankings 2012-2075 County

Population Rank 2012

Population Rank 2075

Creek

11

10

Okmulgee

27

29

Osage

16

17

Pawnee

42

41

Rogers

6

5

Tulsa

2

2

Wagoner

8

7

With all that said, predicting the future is a bit like this…

So wish me luck!

For more information: www.okcommerce.gov/data Email: [email protected] Twitter: @okdatacenter

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