96655_AORs Economic Issues

Eurasia Russia  Exports of natural gas, oil and energy o Relationship with Germany and Europe (who gets what from whom, where are weak links, pipelines, reliance on imports)  Importation of technology  Expansion via the economy channel into former soviet satellites Germany  Restyling SPG and control over Eurozone rules  Banking  Exports, Manufacturing, outperformance vis-à-vis Eurozone  Competitiveness  Nuclear Energy France  Banking  Nuclear Energy UK
 
  Banking LatAm Argentina  Massive debt issues  Deindustrialization effect  Continued populist spending  Disregard for austerity measures, but maintaining decent level of economic growth Brazil  Struggle in balancing Brazil's trade relationship with China  The appreciation of the BRL  Preparation for pre-salt oil revenues Cuba  Major economic reforms underway to lay off 500k state sector employees and build up private industry  Potential shift in Cuba's orientation toward the U.S. Mexico  Declining oil production  Immigration issues with the U.S.

Venezuela  Massive corruption afflicting key state sectors -- energy, electricity, food, metals, etc.  Declining oil production  Economic relationship with China (will China subsidize VZ to sustain the regime?) MESA Iran  Measuring the impact of sanctions on the Iranian economy, particularly gasoline sector  Phasing out of subsidies  Chinese and Russian investment in energy sector  How to continue business as usual in the aftermath of the latest series of sanction, which includes cutting subsidies on fuel and other essential goods and services, importing gasoline, sustain military build-up, underwriting proxies, continuing to secure spare parts for equipment, sustaining indigenous industrial sector, etc. India     

Maintaining FDI inflows in services IT sector spite of the shine on 'shining' India wearing off Growing economic relationship with China and U.S. Struggle with US over H1 visas (need those remittances) Food security and attempts to sustain poor-performing agricultural sector

Egypt  Food security o Wheat production and imports Iraq    UAE 

Can security and political problems settle enough to allow Iraq realize its huge energy potential? Battle between KRG and Baghdad over oil exports Turkey's role in either constricting or guaranteeing Kurdish economic security in exchange for security concessions Abu Dhabi exploiting Dubai's losses from financial crisis to assert its authority over the rival emirate

Saudi Arabia  Efforts to improve education system, move up the value chain in energy and diversify industry

Pakistan  Declining production on all fronts, food and energy insecurities all exacerbated by the floods. Pakistan can't survive without a patron, and that patron right now has to be the U.S.  The country was teetering near the brink of bankruptcy even before the floods but after the floods it has been completely devastated economically with agriculture taking a major hit and the need to rehabilitate millions of people  There is also the chronic problem of a bad taxation system  Power and energy needs major investments Turkey  Diversification of markets beyond Europe (plays into the power struggle)  Energy relationship with Russia, Caucasus states, Iran, Central Asia  Unemployment rate, o Youth unemployment rate,  Turkish investments abroad (ME and Balkans) Egypt  Nuclear energy projects,  Social discrepancy (important for subsidies)  Business elites’ (those close to the regime) domination in economy Iraq    

Postwar/insurgency reconstruction Division of resources (especially energy) among the three main ethnosectarian groups, which includes a national hydrocarbons law Revival of the country's energy sector via the ten agreements signed with various int'l energy firms to increase productions from oil and gas fields Developing a robust security service

Afghanistan  How to actually have a national economy and not simply survive on int'l aid and foreign forces Israel  Poverty and inequality present in its work force. Compared to other countries, Israel has a significantly high rate of non-employment, and this is as a result of immigration issues (Israel imports hundreds of thousands of unskilled workers from abroad) and because of the rates of poverty among Israeli Arabs (20.4% of the population) and Ultra-Orthodox Jews (12% of the Jewish population and of whom only 52% work)

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Though there is debate about the extent to which this is a problem, Israel’s public debt is almost 80% of the GDP and is rising. The combination of this debt and the smallness of Israel as a country potentially make it more susceptible to volatility in the world market. Whether “the government budget should focus primarily on providing core treatment of central social and economic issues from a national perspective” or “whether the focus should be on sectoral, local and/or personal interests” has been a question that has long dominated Israeli budgeting, and in a parliamentary system that is as fragmented as Israel’s these days, it is hard for any government to be decisive in this regard (See TAUB)

Syria  IMF describes the key challenges facing the Syrian economy as diversification of the economy and the creation of jobs (Syria's unemployment rate is around 11%) (See IMF and Tufts)  “Syrian crude oil production has been in decline since the mid-1990s, but efforts are underway to turn it around in 2010”  Syria just recently signed a pipeline agreement in Iraq that should help but there are still many challenges to overcome if it wants to continue to be a net oil exporter AFRICA 

General o Chinese investment in Africa as a whole o Nile River (white and blue branches) water rights sharing

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Nigeria o Oil production

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Angola o Oil and diamond production

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South Africa o Mining

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Sudan o Oil production

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Somalia o Piracy

East Asia

China  Labor (employment by sector, wages, etc)  Trade (export/import patterns, by foreign partners, by province, etc; USChina trade; foreign vs. domestic value added)  Investment (inward and outward; sector; province)  Profits (margins by sector; profits in state-owned vs. private enterprise; etc)  Domestic consumption (private vs. public; corporate vs. household; etc)  Lending; local government debt  Energy production, consumption, distribution, reserves or stockpiles (in order: coal, oil, hydro, nuclear, natural gas, alternative)  Iron and steel industry (export/import, production, consumption, stockpiles, inventories, etc)  Real estate sector (investment, sales, prices; variations by province; residential, commercial; also leverage, vacancies, role of state-owned developers and local governments)  Food o Prices, availability, stockpiles; government procurement quotas and prices  Foreign exchange reserves management  Examples of value-added increasing, or moving up the value chain Japan  Trade (export/import, top goods and services, top partners, volumes, export growth, export contribution to overall growth, etc)  Energy and resource security  Employment (part-time employees, full-time)  Productivity  Subsidies (where does all the government spending go?)  Savings structure; domestic savings and domestic bond sales and ownership  Technological innovation (e.g., electronics, pharmaceuticals, health, environment, services)  Currency value  Deflation  Deficits, debt, debt repayment, debt dynamics  Credit and bank stability  FX reserves Southeast Asia  Exports (chief partners, for imports and exports)  Employment by sector  Processing trade (direction of supply chains)  FDI (where from, rising or falling, what sector, etc)

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FTAs (do they ever have a noticeable impact?)