Chapter 8 - An Introduction to International Economics
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Chapter 8: Preferential Trade Agreements An Introduction to International Economics: New Perspectives on the World Economy
© Kenneth A. Reinert, Cambridge University Press 2012
Analytical Elements
Countries Sectors Tasks
© Kenneth A. Reinert, Cambridge University Press 2012
Introduction
The term multilateralism refers to the GATT/WTO system and the trade negotiations that take place within it One of the founding principles of this system is nondiscrimination
Involves the most favored nation (MFN) and national treatment (NT) subprinciples
“Regionalism” refers to a violation of the nondiscrimination principle in which one member of a regional trade agreement (RTA) discriminates in its trade policies in favor of another member of the RTA and against nonmembers
Has been allowed by the GATT/WTO under certain circumstances:
Free trade areas (FTAs) Customs unions (CUs) Interim agreements leading to a FTA or CU “within a reasonable length of time” © Kenneth A. Reinert, Cambridge University Press 2012
Table 8.1: Types of Preferential Trade Agreements Type of PTA
Description
Number in Force 2014
GATT Article XXIV (FTA)
An agreement on the part of a set of countries to eliminate trade restrictions among themselves.
221
GATT Article XXIV (CU)
An agreement on the part of a set of countries to eliminate trade restrictions among themselves and to adopt a common external tariff.
17
Enabling Clause
Allows PTAs in goods trade among developing countries.
37
GATS Article V
An agreement to reduce barriers to trade in services among a set of counties.
131
Total: 406 © Kenneth A. Reinert, Cambridge University Press 2012
Table 8.2: Steps to Regional Integration Type
Description
Free trade area
An agreement on the part of a set of countries to eliminate trade restrictions among themselves.
Customs union
An agreement on the part of a set of countries to eliminate trade restrictions among themselves and to adopt a common external tariff.
Common market
An agreement on the part of a set of countries to eliminate trade restrictions among themselves, to adopt a common external tariff, and to allow the free movement of labor and physical capital among member countries.
Monetary union
A common market that adopts a common currency and adopts a common monetary policy.
Economic union
A monetary union that adopts a process of domestic policy harmonization in areas such as tax and spending policies and domestic regulation. © Kenneth A. Reinert, Cambridge University Press 2012
The WTO and PTAs
WTO members who wish to form FTAs or CUs may do so
However, there are certain requirements
Trade barriers against non-members cannot be “higher or more restrictive than” those in existence prior to the FTA or CU FTA or CU must be formed “within a reasonable length of time” FTA or CU must eliminate trade barriers on “substantially all the trade” among the members With regard to services, the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) requires that the FTA or CU involve “substantial sectoral coverage” © Kenneth A. Reinert, Cambridge University Press 2012
The WTO and PTAs: Enforcement
The WTO has a Committee on Regional Trade Agreements (CRTA) Despite the institutional structure present in the WTO to govern PTAs, there has never been any serious evaluation or enforcement Most PTAs are of dubious WTO consistency A “cooperative equilibrium” exists where no WTO member contests another’s PTA © Kenneth A. Reinert, Cambridge University Press 2012
Rules of Origin
In FTAs (but not CUs), a product can be imported into a low-tariff member and then resold in a high-tariff member This is known as tariff rate arbitrage Rules of origin (ROOs) protect against this
Domestic content Change in tariff heading Specific processes Substantial transformation © Kenneth A. Reinert, Cambridge University Press 2012
Economic Effects of PTAs
Trade creation
Occurs when the formation of a FTA or CU leads to a switching of imports from a high-cost source to a low-cost source
Tends to improve welfare
Trade diversion
Occurs when imports switch from a low-cost source to a high-cost source
Tends to worsen welfare
© Kenneth A. Reinert, Cambridge University Press 2012
Trade Creation and Trade Diversion
Trade creation and trade diversion using the absolute advantage model of Chapter 2 Along with Brazil (B) and Argentina (A), we are also going to refer to a third country, El Salvador (S)
Brazil and Argentina are members of a PTA, whereas El Salvador is not
© Kenneth A. Reinert, Cambridge University Press 2012
Figure 8.1: Trade-Creating PTA
© Kenneth A. Reinert, Cambridge University Press 2012
Trade Creation
Before the PTA, Brazil has in place a specific (per unit) tariff on imports from both Argentina and El Salvador Argentina is the lower-cost producer in comparison to Venezuela
Once Brazil joins either a PTA with Argentina, tariff is removed on imports from Argentina
Therefore Brazil imports good from Argentina
Good continues to be imported from Argentina and imports increase because price has fallen due to removal of tariff
Consumer surplus in Brazil increases while producer surplus and government tariff revenue falls Net increase in welfare due to trade creation © Kenneth A. Reinert, Cambridge University Press 2012
Figure 8.2: A Trade-Diverting PTA
© Kenneth A. Reinert, Cambridge University Press 2012
Trade Diversion
Before the PTA, Brazil has in place a specific (per unit) tariff on imports from both Argentina and El Salvador El Salvador is the lower-cost producer in comparison to Argentina
Once Brazil joins a PTA with Argentina, however, Brazil switches to Argentina as an import supplier
Brazil imports the good from El Salvador
Imports expand as the domestic price falls
Consumer surplus in Brazil increases while producer surplus and government revenue fall Whether net welfare effect is positive or negative is ambiguous © Kenneth A. Reinert, Cambridge University Press 2012
Summary of Economic Effects of PTAs
PTAs can be either welfare-improving or welfare-worsening. Whether an PTA is welfare-improving or welfare-worsening is something that must be assessed on a case-by-case basis, based on evidence on the relative strengths of trade creation and trade diversion.
© Kenneth A. Reinert, Cambridge University Press 2012
The European Union Year
Initiative/Treaty
Members Added
1951
European Coal and Steel Community/Treaty of Paris
France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands
1958
European Economic Community/Treaty of Rome
1973
Enlargement
Denmark, Ireland, United Kingdom
1981
Enlargement
Greece
1986
Enlargement
Portugal, Spain
1992
European Union/Maastricht Treaty
1995
Enlargement
Austria, Finland, Sweden
1999
European Monetary Union
United Kingdom, Sweden and Denmark not included
2002
Common EMU currency: the euro
United Kingdom, Sweden and Denmark not included
2004
Enlargement
Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia
2007
Enlargement
Bulgaria, Romania
2007
EU Constitution/Lisbon Treaty
2013
Enlargement
Croatia © Kenneth A. Reinert, Cambridge University Press 2012
Economic Assessment of the EU
Some studies have suggested that trade creation has dominated trade diversion in the EU Other studies have drawn attention to the role of non-tariff measures, subsidies (especially to agriculture), and trade diversion in the expanding network of PTAs between the EU and other countries © Kenneth A. Reinert, Cambridge University Press 2012
North American Free Trade Agreement
In January 1994 a FTA between Canada, Mexico and the United States took place (NAFTA) Addressed the following
Trade in goods Financial services Transportation Telecommunications Foreign direct investment Intellectual property rights Government procurement Dispute settlement © Kenneth A. Reinert, Cambridge University Press 2012
NAFTA Issues
Trade and wages
Trade and the environment
Role of Commission for Environment Cooperation
NAFTA ROOs
Not as important as often alleged
Can be complex
Truck transportation not liberalized until 2011 Migration a continued political issue © Kenneth A. Reinert, Cambridge University Press 2012
Mercosur
PTA among Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay Launched in 1991 with the Treaty of Asunción Took on Chile and Bolivia as associate members in 1996 and 1997, respectively Peru, Colombia and Ecuador became associate members in 2003-2004 Venezuela signed a partnership agreement in 2006 Not actually a common market but a CU Free movement of labor and physical capital is along way off © Kenneth A. Reinert, Cambridge University Press 2012
FTAA
In 1994, governments of 34 countries in Western Hemisphere agreed to pursue a Free Trade Area of the Americas Negotiations were launched at the Second Summit of the Americas in 1998 in nine negotiating groups
Market Access Investment Services Government Procurement Dispute Settlement Agriculture Intellectual Property Rights Subsidies, Antidumping, and Countervailing Duties Competition Policy © Kenneth A. Reinert, Cambridge University Press 2012
FTAA
The 2004 Summit of the Americas was stymied by a number of issues
Agriculture Anti-dumping
The 2005 Summit of the Americas ended negotiations on the FTAA
Venezuela and Argentina blocked progress in opposition to US-backed “neo-liberalism”
© Kenneth A. Reinert, Cambridge University Press 2012
ASEAN and AFTA
Association for Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) includes Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam Beginning in 1992, members began to form the ASEAN FTA or AFTA, which now includes all 10 members ASEAN is linking its AFTA to other countries in the region through a number of initiatives © Kenneth A. Reinert, Cambridge University Press 2012
Regionalism vs. Multilateralism
Represent two alternative trade policy options available to the countries of the world The 1950s and 1960s saw “first wave” of PTAs in developing world The 1980’s saw beginning of “second wave” of PTAs What role will this second wave of PTAs play vis-àvis the multilateral efforts toward trade liberalization pursued under the GATT-WTO framework
Will the second wave of PTAs complement the multilateral framework or will it work at cross-purposes to this framework? © Kenneth A. Reinert, Cambridge University Press 2012
Regionalism vs. Multilateralism
Opponents argue that PTAs are discriminatory by nature They draw attention to “spaghetti-bowl” nature of second-wave and current PTAs Meaning the overlapping nature of most PTAs, with most WTO members holding simultaneous membership in many PTAs at once The negotiating energies put into PTAs will detract from those put into multilateral agreements under the auspices of the WTO © Kenneth A. Reinert, Cambridge University Press 2012
Appendix: Rules of Thumb for Evaluating PTAs
Countries excluded from a PTA almost always lose Market access is a key determinant of the net benefits of a PTA Lowering external tariffs against non-members of a PTA improves their desirability from a welfare standpoint Multilateral trade liberalization results in significantly larger gains to the world than a network of PTAs
© Kenneth A. Reinert, Cambridge University Press 2012
Appendix: Rules of Thumb for Evaluating PTAs
For some countries “additive PTAs” can be more beneficial than unilateral trade liberalization due to the market access gains involved in the former For developing countries “North-South” PTAs can offer beneficial increases in competition in their home markets
© Kenneth A. Reinert, Cambridge University Press 2012
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