Das menschliche Gedächtnis

Hindsight Bias The hindsight bias is the tendency that people overestimate what they would have known or would have predicted after an outcome is known. This is also called the “I-knew-it-all-along” effect. For example, when people know the outcome of a historical battle, they tend to believe that they would have predicted exactly that outcome, although the probability of this prediction is much smaller if the outcome is not known (see Fischhoff, 1975).

Harley et al. (2004) found a visual hindsight bias.

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