Eurozonekrisen - Peter Nedergaard

Peter Nedergaard: ØMU og eurozonekrisen 18. august 2014 Dagsorden: 1) Hvad er eurozonekrisen? 2) Udslagene 3) Løsningsinitiativerne 4) Forklaringerne 4) Fremtidsperspektiverne

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Eurozonekrisen

En gælds- og underskudskrise i eurozonen

- Udløst af subprimekrisen/ Lehman Brothers krak - Men det var kun den udløsende faktor - Krisen var kommer senere alligevel Market failures eller government failures? 2

Indholdet af eurozonekrisen - Store underskud i visse lande pga. offentligt overforbrug eller manglende skatteopkrævning Tegn:

- Boligboble - Forbrugsfest Konsekvenser: - Massearbejdsløshed - Lav økonomisk vækst 3

Demonstrationer

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I begyndelsen stor forvirring

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Finanspagten

1. Intergovernmental aftale – med institutionel EU-back up

2. Skærpelse af Vækst- og stabilitetspagten (QMV for sanktioner) 3. Finanspagten: QMV for at hindre sanktioner 4. Max. 3 pct. konjunkturbetinget underskud

5. Max. 0,5 pct. strukturelt underskud (ordoliberalismen) 6

The EU Replies to the Euro Crisis Time at agreement

Initiative

Purpose

of the initiative at

Fora of decision-

Form of initiative

Obstacles

Temporary facility

No bail-out clause

making

the EU level 2010

European Financial

Loan to member

Standing Facility

states

European Council

in TFEU (Article

(EFSF) 2011

Euro Plus Pact

123) Increase

European Council

competitiveness

Intergovernmental

The UK, the

agreement

Czech Republic, Sweden and Hungary abstained

2011

2011

European Semester

Six Pack

Monitor national

European

Supranational EU

budgets

Commission

law

Correction of

European

Supranational EU

macro-economic

Commission

law

imbalances and sanctions

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The EU Replies to the Euro Crisis 2011

Buy government bonds Lower interest rates ECB

Market intervention German

in euro crisis

Constitutional

countries

Court might declare plans illegal (cf. Article 123 in TFEU)

2012

European Stability

Loan to member

Mechanism (ESM)

states

European Council

Intergovernmental

The UK, the

institution

Czech Republic, Sweden and Hungary abstained

2012

Fiscal Compact

Fiscal discipline

European Council

Intergovernmental

The UK and the

treaty

Czech Republic abstained

2013 2013

Two Pack Banking Union

Surveillance

European

Supranational EU

mechanisms

Commission

law

Banking supervisory European

ECB supervisory

Some non-euro

authority

body

countries will

Commission

abstain (e.g. the 8 UK and Sweden)

Teoretiske forklaringer på eurozonekrisen Euro crisis Cause of the political initiatives for the solution to the Solution to the euro crisis Theory

Neo-functionalism

euro crisis

The proposals for closer economic integration and

The Fiscal Compact and further tightening of EMU

coordination did not come until some time into the

thereby complete the spill-over process and eliminate

crisis in 2011, when there was an urgent need to ease the initial design flaw. the pressure on the interest rates in crisis countries. Intergovernmentalism

As the leader of the EU Germany accepted the

Euro crisis gives Germany an incentive to assume the

establishment of EMU to ensure a stable EU, which

role of hegemon, but a solution requires other EU

is a German interest. It has been an active leader

member states to agree to Germany playing this role.

from 2011 and onwards, when the euro crisis began to affect important German economic and political interests. Ordo-liberalism

Germany assesses the 2011 situation and concludes

The decision-makers of the euro countries adjust

that the EMU needs a dose of ordo-liberalism in the

institutions as well as their way of thinking in

form of monetary stability, zero-tolerance towards

accordance with the German model. Ordo-liberalism

public deficits and effective sanctions embedded in a

assumes complete ideological hegemony and is

form of economic constitution.

internalised at the decision-making level in the9 euro area.

Prognoser angående en permanent løsning på eurozonekrisen Prognoses Prognosis regarding the solution to the euro crisis: positive or negative?

Theory

Neo-functionalism

Positive: Once the EU has corrected the design flaws of the EMU through tightened rules, the euro crisis will be solved.

Intergovernmentalis Positive/ negative: The other euro countries have to accept the hegemon m

role of Germany and the German population has to accept the costs of playing the role of the leader.

Ordo-liberalism

Negative: Ideology and institutions are not easily changed into an ordoliberal model.

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Faldende tilslutning til det europæiske projekt

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Mistillid til nationale politske ledere (undtagen Merkel)

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Mistillid til hinanden?

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Opsamling •EU har betalt en høj pris for ikke at centralisere den økonomisk-politiske beslutningstagen 1.I første omgang så der ikke ud til at være nogen pris at betale 2.Kommissionen var samtidig tøvende med at tilslutte sig den funktionalistiske argumentation 3.Kommissionen fra 2010: Gennemgang af finanslove om foråret, før de vedtages om efteråret + europagten i 2011: Offentlige lønninger, pensioner, produktivitet, konkurrenceevne. 4.Kommissionen styrer de factor finanspolitikken i Grækenland 5.Finanspagten

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