“White Flight” in London and the UK? Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College, University of London
[email protected]
Save our Census! • The permission of the Office for National Statistics to use the Longitudinal Study is gratefully acknowledged, as is the help provided by staff of the Centre for Longitudinal Study Information & User Support (CeLSIUS). CeLSIUS is supported by the ESRC Census of Population Programme (Award Ref: ES/K000365/1). The authors alone are responsible for the interpretation of the data. • Census output is Crown copyright and is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland. • The results presented are based on a test version of the LS database incorporating 2011 Census data. Figures may be subject to change when the final version of this database is released in November 2013.
Community and Closure 'Neighborhoods can be open only if countries are at least potentially closed...The distinctiveness of cultures and groups depends upon closure and without it cannot be conceived as a stable feature of human life' – Michael Walzer Spheres of Justice (1983)
Theoretical Framework & Data • Does local diversity increase or reduce white hostility to immigration? • Two measures: Desire to reduce immigration and support for the populist right • Data, pooled dataset of four Citizenship Surveys 2007-08, 2008-09, 2009-10, 2010-11 • The Citizenship Survey has asked the question: “Do you think the number of immigrants coming to Britain nowadays should be increased a lot, increased a little, remain the same as it is, reduced a little, or reduced a lot?”
Minorities and Immigration • “Battle lines are being drawn between the Roma …and the locals – predominantly Pakistani families”
Not just white British…. Proportion of people who want to reduce immigration, by ethnoreligion and birthplace, 2007-11 100 90 80
83
77 73
70
65
65
60
54
55 UK-Born
50 42 40
30 20 10 0 White British
Sikh
Hindu
Muslim
Source: Home Office/DCLG Citizenship Surveys, 2007-11 (Cumulative)
Foreign-Born
Not just working class…. Percentage of people who would like to reduce levels of immigration, by class and ethnic group 100 90 80 70 60 50
white British minorities
40 30 20 10 0 Higher/lower mng
Intermediate
Lower supervisory
Semi-Routine
Never worked/unemployed
Students
Immigration slider
Size matters • At the individual level: the unemployed/social housing tenants or routine or semi-routine workers, no more or less likely to be opposed to immigration. • Respondents who belonged to the lower supervisory/technical groups and identified as English were more likely to want to reduce immigration • Respondents living in more deprived areas, no more or less likely to want to reduce immigration • Ward-level diversity a positive effect whilst LA diversity negative • Population churn as important as inter-ethnic friendships in lowering desire to reduce immigration.
Support for the populist right • Do people vote for the far right (BNP) or populist right (UKIP) as a response to demographic change in their local area? • As with immigration, dual relationship to support for the far right and diversity: negative at ward level, positive at local authority level. • Demographic profile of UKIP and BNP voters broadly similar but geography?
White Flight?
Net Migration from London by Ethnicity: with rest of England & Wales, 1971-2011
1971-1981 1981-1991 1991-2001 2001-11
White British In 3,030 3,724 3,566 2,953
Net Migration to London from Rest of England and Wales Out Net % Change 7,495 -4,465 -14.7% 7,208 -3,484 -11.0% 7,402 -3,836 -11.0% 6,962 -4,009 -13.4%
1971-1981 1981-1991 1991-2001 2001-11
White British -14.7% -11.0% -11.0% -13.4%
WB Working/ Middle Class -14.0% -12.0% -12.7% -15.3%
WB Professional -11.2% -10.0% -6.4% -12.4%
WB with Children -21.9% -13.1% -15.1% -19.6%
WB Twenties -2.1% 11.7% 27.7% 24.0%
Minority Working/ Middle Class 2.1% 2.3% -1.5% -4.1%
Minority Minority with Professional Children 1.9% 0.7% 3.1% 3.3% -1.3% -3.6% -3.8% -6.9%
Minority Twenties 9.6% 11.0% 2.3% 0.5%
1971-1981 1981-1991 1991-2001 2001-11
Minority 1.0% 2.7% -1.9% -4.1%
How did Ethnic Groups Move?: by Ethnic Neighbourhood Type, 2001-11 9.8
9.7
9.6 7.6
-1.4
Pakistani
Bangladeshi
-0.4Caribbean
Indian -2.9
-4.1
-4.4
-7.1
-7.2 -8.4
70-100% Minority, 70-100% Own Group
70-100% Minority, less than 70% own group
0-20% Minority
Source: R. Johnston, M. Poulsen, J. Forrest, Multiethnic residential areas in a multiethnic country? A decade of major change in England and Wales,’ Environment and Planning A 2013, volume 45, pages 753 – 759
Change in Segregation (ID), 1991-2011, Changes in Mutual Segregation (index of dissimilarity), for Combinations of Groups, 1991-2001 and 2001-2011 England and Wales 78.0 White BritishMinority
73.0 68.0
White-BME
63.0 White BritishMuslim
58.0 53.0 1991
2001
2011
78.0 77.0 76.0 75.0 74.0 73.0 72.0 71.0 70.0 69.0 68.0
White-Pk White-Bangla
76.0 71.0
CaribbeanPakistani
66.0
1991
2001
2011
CaribbeanWhite
61.0
White British_bangla
51.0
White British_pk
41.0
White BritishCaribbean
Bangladeshi -Pakistani
56.0
CaribbeanMinority
46.0
HinduMuslim
36.0 1
2
3
• White British-Minority little change • White British-individual minorities modest decline • Minority-minority largest decline
Source: Catney, G. 2013. ‘Has neighbourhood ethnic segregation decreased,’ Dynamics of Diversity: Evidence from the 2011 census (JRF/Manchester: February), ethnicity.ac.uk
Quintiles (ONS LS 2011) Diverse fifth of Homogeneous fourWards fifths of Wards White British net outflow Minority net outflow
2011
40.7% Minority
4.9% Minority
2001
27.8% Minority
2.4% Minority
1991
19.8% Minority
1.5% Minority
Smart Census Data Plotter file:///C:/1-Data/1-1-work/1-Research/1-1-Projects/1white%20flight/Models/UK/Ridgway/dependent%20children/5 dplot_fromtxt_quick%20start.swf [Class; Dependent Children v 20s; Mixed Ethnicity House; English; Tenure]
http://www.smartcensus.org.uk/index.php?option=com_wrapp er&view=wrapper&Itemid=611 [time permitting, to show deprivation-density-diversity link]
White British
66% out , 12% into diversity: Net ‘Segregation’
23% out, 40% into diversity: Net ‘Integration’
- 12% Minorities
- 66%
- 40% -23%
Comfort with spouse of different race among ward movers, White British only (Yougov/ESRC survey) To Whiter To Diverse Sample very comfortable 61%
39%
83
fairly comfortable neither comfortable n fairly uncomfortable very uncomfortable don't know Total
67%
33%
33
57%
43%
46
64%
36%
11
76% 58% 63%
24% 42% 37%
25 24 222
Conclusion • Minorities integrate, white British segregate? • White British prefer 90+% white areas, except in their 20s • Not ‘white flight’: white cultural attraction based on life stage subculture rather than anxiety over boundaries • Anti-immigration, political or racist attitudes not strongly linked to moving to whiter area, esp when compared to stayers • No selection bias
….. • Local conditions matter for national issue perceptions and vice-versa • Upper working/lower middle class are somewhat more likely to be both ‘white flighters’ and white nationalists • White attitudes to immigration may be softened by contact in locale; • Or may be hardened by diversity in metro and/or by jumps in minority presence in formerly lilywhite areas
Potential Policy Implications • Immigration: not principally about white working class • Housing: retain white British population (social housing, housebuilding, benefits) • Housing: aim for dispersed building, slow demographic change. Not to disperse minorities to homogeneous areas • Schooling: yes to mixed catchment, but sensitivity to white tipping
