Global Trends 2008 presentation – Brad Segal (power

“As we look deeper into the 21st century, the name of the game has changed. Instead of isolation, we are faced with the pressing reality of a single, rapidly evolving, global and multiethnic culture. Connections and relationships cannot be ignored, because what happens in one part of the world, whether economic, political, cultural or environmental, affects all other parts.”

Loheed & Brooks “New Places for a New Age” Urban Land

GLOBAL TRENDS 2008

PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES

TOP 10 GLOBAL TRENDS

Demographics 1. Changing American Demographics

2. Immigration Trends 3. Changes Within the “Creative Class”

GLOBAL TRENDS 2008

PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES

TOP

10 GLOBAL TRENDS

Lifestyles 4. Traffic Congestion & Value of Time 5. Trends in Health Care, Wellness & Recreation 6. Growth of Tourism 7. America’s Growing Debt Burden

GLOBAL TRENDS 2008

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TOP

10 GLOBAL TRENDS

Global Competition & Change 8. Emergence of China, India & a Planetary Middle Class 9. Continued Advances in Technology 10. Environmentalism, Sustainability &

Climate Change

GLOBAL TRENDS 2008

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1. Changing American Demographics “Baby Boom” 77 million born 1946 to 1964 

Sheer numbers support labor markets, entitlements

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College education rates increase 5x

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Shaped by suburbia, Cold War & Civil Rights era

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Living longer, healthier

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Unprecedented wealth, to shift to next generation

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Empty nest market looking to downsize?

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1. Changing American Demographics “Generation X” 44 million born 1961 to 1981 

Cynical about the future, bitter toward baby boomers

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Shaped by information age – ability to multi-task & transfer skills enhances marketability in job market

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Value lifestyle over company loyalty

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Discretionary spenders, homebuyers at earlier age

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Majority now have children

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1. Changing American Demographics “Millennials” 70 million born 1977 to 2003 

Growing up with technology – multi-taskers

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More optimistic, tolerant and open-minded

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Multi-cultural – in majority of 100 largest U.S. cities, more than half under age 15 are racial and ethnic minorities

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Spirit of volunteerism and passion to foster change

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Increasing impact in U.S. voting and elected office

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2. Immigration Trends U.S. only major growing industrial country, due mostly to immigration 

Only 5 countries welcome immigrants as permanent residents: U.S., Canada, Australia, New Zealand & Israel

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85% of U.S. immigrants from Latin America or Asia

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Shift away from traditional urban gateways to suburbs & rural areas

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49 languages currently spoken in Littleton Public Schools

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3. Changes Within the “Creative Class” Richard Florida’s “creatives” attracted to diverse, tolerant, innovative and vibrant environments…  Entrepreneurs who staff/start innovative growing companies  Growing importance of well-educated young women -60% of college enrollment by 2013 -Majority of workforce by 2010

 Millennials to replenish/replace the creative class  Quality schools key to attracting and retaining young families GLOBAL TRENDS 2008

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4. Traffic Congestion and the Value of Time U.S. auto dependency increasingly costly in time and money 

Worsening traffic congestion cost Americans $63 billion in 2005, 47 hours in average annual delays

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Denver: 1986 – 20 hours; 2005 – 50 hours

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Additional road capacity doing little to stem congestion

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Transit growth has exceeded driving growth since 1996

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Avoiding congestion a motivation for urban living?

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5. Trends in Healthcare and Wellness Demand for services increasing, supply decreasing… 

Declining hospital use and stays for cost containment

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Nearly 46 million uninsured adding to cost burden

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More reliance on outpatient, “retail” and e-medicine

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Shortage of doctors and nurses projected

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Aging population will increase demand for services

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Urban form and health – more obesity in suburbs, majority of Americans would like to walk and bike more

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6. Growth of Tourism An international growth market… 

Tourism is world’s largest employer – 200 million jobs

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U.S. ranked third as international tourism destination

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Expanding global middle class will increase tourism

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Weak dollar increasing visits to U.S.

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Cultural heritage tourism growing. Visitors stay longer, spend more

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Convention center space increasing, demand limited by industry consolidations, e-business

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7. America’s Growing Debt Burden American debt a looming economic cloud… 

National debt $30K, Mortgage debt $42K & Consumer debt $8K per capita

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Nearly 33% of Americans live pay check to pay check vs. 7% of consumers in China, India and Mexico

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In 1950, 16 workers for each social security recipient; By 2030, 2 workers for each eligible recipient

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Economic expansion of past 15 years has seen savings rates decline from 7.5% of income to below zero

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46% of national debt held by foreign countries

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Rising interest rates and inflation + debt + lack of savings = ???

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8. The Emergence of China, India and a Planetary Middle Class “In the same way that commentators refer to the 1900s as the American Century, the 21st century may be seen as the time when Asia, led by China and India, comes into its own. A combination of sustained high economic growth, expanding military capabilities, and large populations will be at the root of the expected rise in economic and military power for both countries.” Mapping the Global Future, U.S. National Intelligence Council GLOBAL TRENDS 2008

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8. The Emergence of China, India and a Planetary Middle Class  In 2005 China consumed 26% of global steel, 32% of rice, 37% of cotton and 47% of cement  2006 construction in Shanghai = Existing NYC office market  Billionaires in China – 15 in 2006, 106 in 2007  U.S. outsourcing to India to quadruple by 2010 to $56B/yr.  Country with largest number of English speakers by 2010? India  Growing global middle class creates markets for U.S. goods  “Innovation trumps brawn”  Income disparities continue to create instability, foster terrorism GLOBAL TRENDS 2008

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9. Continued Advances in Technology Areas where technology will have the largest impact:  Health, biotechnology (genomics, bioinformatics)  Alternative sources of energy  Nanotechnology (engineering on a molecular scale)

 Quality of life enhancements – accessing information and entertainment through e-portals  New channels for doing business

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9. Continued Advances in Technology Technology and business… 

Real-time anywhere wireless communications will increase competition and open global markets

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“World is Flat” = globalization to be driven by individuals

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One billion online, 11% annual increase through 2010

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“Uploading” – Bottom-up creation of culture, knowledge & innovation

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E-commerce increasing, but less than 3% of total retail sales

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Cities compete with increasing personal mobility and living options

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10. Environmentalism and Sustainability A rapidly urbanizing world…  Majority of planet now lives in cities  Today 3 billion – 6 billion by 2050  Autos in China… 1 million in 1995 50 million today 150 million by 2015

 At current growth rates, number of vehicles and global energy consumption could more than double by 2030

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10. Environmentalism and Sustainability A rapidly urbanizing world…  U.S. transportation system 97% dependent on petroleum fuels  U.S. buildings consume 36% of total energy, 65% of electricity

 Half of American homes projected by 2030 do not yet exist  U.S. cities launching green building and sustainability initiatives – Chicago, San Francisco, Seattle, Portland, New York City, Denver… GLOBAL TRENDS 2008

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Conclusions Overall, trends favorable for vibrant communities?  America growing, younger & older, more diverse  Increasingly connected & competitive world  Resource-intensive lifestyles increasingly expensive and not sustainable

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Conclusions Warning signs that could impede new investment…  Global disparities create continued instability  American debt burden on collision course with aging demographics and global inflationary pressures

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Implications for Littleton Demographics…  Welcome younger, multi-cultural populations  Create an environment that appeals to young women

 Keep the talent pool as they age – schools, parks  Diverse price points needed for housing

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Implications for Littleton Lifestyles…  Implement localized transit strategies  Offer affordable & accessible health care  Offer stimulating, multi-dimensional experiences – i.e. fun  Walkability and active recreation  Heritage tourism an opportunity?

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Implications for Littleton Global Competition & Change…  Entrepreneurship continues to be the key to job growth  Adaptive reuse more affordable as construction costs rise  Localities lead sustainability efforts

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