HeltonChapter8

Chapter 8: Public Opinion, Participation, and Voting

Jacob A. Helton, B.S. For Dr. Hunter POL 111

Chapter 7 Highlights • Table on page 181 – Familiarize yourself with the breakdowns

• Handout on campaign funds – http://www.fec.gov/ans/answers_general.s html#How_much_can_I_contribute – Special attention to what an individual can contribute per election ($2,300)

Margin Definitions • Public Opinion • Political Socialization • Attentive Public • Voter Registration • Australian Ballot

• Turnout • Party Identification • Candidate Appeal

Public Opinion • “The distribution of individual preferences for or evaluations of a given issue, candidate, or institution within a specific population.”

Public Opinion Polls • Rasmussen Reports (2/27): – – – –

Giuliani 33% McCain 17% Gingrich 13% “The current survey is based upon national telephone interviews with 546 Likely Republican Primary Voters conducted February 19-22, 2007.”

Public Opinion Polls • Rasmussen Reports (2/27): – – – –

Clinton 37% Obama 26% Edwards 13% “The current survey of 568 Likely Democratic Primary Voters was conducted February 19-22, 2007. The margin of sampling error was +/-4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.”

Public Opinion Polls • Random sample – Population

• Simple Questions – No strange wordings (double negatives, ambiguous, double barreled) – Questions worded to allow different answers (no leading) – Options cover the bases

• Margins of Error • Timing

Polling Problems: Cell vs. Landline • Under 30 Cell-only respondents – Generally more democratic (but not significantly so)

• Most young people are not statistically different • Pew Research Center (a polling organization)

Not Margin Definitions • Intensity – A scale of extremes far opposed, far in favor and the gradients in between.

• Latency – People’s unexpressed wants, needs, and hopes

• Salience – Extent to which people believe issues are relevant to them.

Political Socialization • • • •

Family Schools Mass Media Other – Religious – Ethnic

Awareness & Interest • Attentive Public • Political know-nothings (nonvoters) • Part-time citizens

Voting • • • •

Voter registration Motor Voter Australian ballot (secret ballot) Turnout

Voting Elements • Party Identification • Candidate Appeal • Issues

The Test-Stay Tuned! • http://sbs.mnsu.edu/psle/ga/helton .html