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The Future Of Mobile: 2014 Henry Blodget BI Intelligence
Henry Blodget CEO & Editor-in-Chief, Business Insider
Marcelo Ballvé, Editorial Director
Tony Danova, Research Analyst
Cooper Smith, Research Analyst
John Heggestuen, Research Analyst
BI Intelligence is a new subscription service from Business Insider that provides in-depth insight, data, and analysis of the mobile industry. More info at intelligence.businessinsider.com
PCs are now small share of connected devices… Global Internet Connected Device Shipments 1,800,000,000
1,600,000,000
1,400,000,000 Wearables 1,200,000,000
Smart TVs Tablets
Units
1,000,000,000
800,000,000
600,000,000 Smartphones 400,000,000
200,000,000 Personal Computers 0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Source: Gartner, IDC, Strategy Analy cs, Company Filings, BI Intelligence Es mates
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013E
Almost 1 billion smartphones shipped in 2013 Global Smartphone Shipments By Manufacturer 325,000,000 300,000,000 275,000,000
Motorola BlackBerry HTC
250,000,000
Nokia Windows Phone
225,000,000
ZTE
Units Shipped
200,000,000
Sony Ericsson Lenovo
175,000,000 Huawei
LG
150,000,000 125,000,000 100,000,000 Other
Apple
75,000,000 50,000,000 Samsung
25,000,000 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 Source: BI Intelligence Es mates
“Phablets” filling in the gap… Demand For Phablets Is Skyrocke ng In Asia 27 Phablet 24
Millions Of Units Shipped
21 18 Laptop 15 12
Tablet
9 6 3 0 2011 Q4
2012 Q1
2012 Q2
2012 Q3
Source: Interna onal Data Corpora on August 2013 "Asia" excludes Japan and includes Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam.
2012 Q4
2013 Q1
2013 Q2
Wearables beginning to take off… Wearable Device Market Size Forecast $14,000
$12,000
(Millions)
$10,000
$8,000
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: BI Intelligence es mates, ABI Research, IMS, Juniper, *Assumes 42$ average selling price for wearable devices
2016
2017
2018
Mobile is the only media time that is growing U.S.$Consumer$Media$Consump2on$Share$ 50%$ 45%$
45%$ 44%$ 43%$ 42%$
40%$
38%$
35%$ 30%$ 26%$26%$26%$ 25%$
25%$
20%$
20%$
20%$
17%$ 16%$ 15%$ 14%$
15%$
12%$
10%$
12%$ 9%$
8%$
7%$
7%$
6%$ 4%$
5%$
8%$
9%$ 7%$ 5%$ 5%$
6%$ 4%$
0%$ TV$
Online$
Radio$ 2009$
Source:(eMarketer,(August(2013(
2010$
Print$ 2011$
2012$
Other$ 2013$
Mobile$
Each device has a different “prime time” Share Of Device Page Traffic Over A Day:
Source: comScore, Telefonica, Macquarie Capital (USA), December 2011
Smartphone sales have overtaken “dumb phones” Global Mobile Phone Sales 400,000 Feature Phones
350,000
300,000
(Thousands)
250,000
200,000
150,000 Smartphones 100,000
50,000
1Q08 Source: Gartner
4Q08
3Q09
2Q10
1Q11
4Q11
3Q12
2Q13
~225 million tablets were shipped in 2013 Global Tablet Shipments By Pla orm
100,000,000 90,000,000 80,000,000 70,000,000 60,000,000
Amazon (Kindle Fire)
Windows
50,000,000 40,000,000
Apple
30,000,000 20,000,000 Android
10,000,000 Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Source: BI Intelligence Es mates
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
Q4 2012
Q1 2013
Q2 2013
Q3 2013
Q4 2013
But growth is slowing rapidly Year-Over-Year Growth Smartphones vs. Tablets, Quarterly 350%
300% Tablets 250%
200%
150%
Smartphones
100%
50%
0% Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 Source: BI Intelligence Es mates
~60% of tablets run Android Global Tablet Market Share By Pla orm 100%
BlackBerry
Windows
Nook
Amazon (Kindle Fire)
90% 80% 70% 60% 50%
Apple
40% 30% 20%
Android
10% 0% Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Source: BI Intelligence Es mates
~80% of smartphones run Android Global Smartphone Market Share By Pla orm 100% 90% 80%
Other
Share of Global Unit Sales
70% 60% 50% 40% 30%
BlackBerry Apple iOS Microso
Android
20% 10% 0% Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 Source: IDC, Strategy Analy cs
~60% of all new computing devices run Android Global Compu ng Pla orm Market Share 100% 90% 80% 70%
Other
BlackBerry Apple
60% 50%
Windows
40% 30% 20%
Android
10% 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 Source: Gartner, IDC, Stategy Analy cs, Company Filings, BI Intelligence Es mates
Biggest opportunities now China and India Smartphone Sales In 2014 Will Be Driven By New Users In Emerging Markets 300
Millions Of Smartphones
250
200
150
100 Top 11 Markets
Other Markets
50
Sales To New Smartphone Users In 2014 Source: Mediacells via The Guardian
Smartphone Upgrades In 2014
en ed Sw
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M
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Au
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UK
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Ge
Ja pa n M ex ico
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Br
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‘Local 7 manufacturers’ in India and China have beaten Apple in Smartphones, closing in on Samsung 90,000,000
Smartphone Shipments
80,000,000 70,000,000 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 0 Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Samsung
Q1 2012
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
Q4 2012
Local 7 Manufacturers*
Sources: Various, BI Intelligence. *Local 7 are: Huawei, ZTE, Lenovo, Coolpad, Xiaomi, Karbonn And Micromax
Q1 2013 Apple
Q2 2013
Q3 2013
Q4 2013
Selected Local Manufacturers from India and China 70,000,000
60,000,000
Shipments
50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 0 Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Xiaomi
Q3 2011
Lenovo
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
Huawei
Sources: Canalys, IDC, Strategy Anaytics BI Intelligence, Company Reports
Q2 2012
ZTE
Q3 2012
Q4 2012
Coolpad
Q1 2013
Q2 2013
Karbonn
Q3 2013
Q4 2013
Micromax
Android now as popular with global developers as iOS Mobile Developers' Main Pla orm Other 7% BlackBerry 4% Android 34%
Windows Phone 5%
HTML5 17%
Source: Developer Economics, July 2013
iOS 33%
iOS vs Android Fragmentation in 2013
Android is more fragmented, but has far more reach worldwide then iOS Source: OpenSignal, “Android Fragmentation Visualized”
Android is leading in World-Wide Smartphone Sales by a HUGE margin
Source: Wikipedia, http://bit.ly/MobileOSShare
Mobile handset with open source operating systems* HW/Organization
Model
SW/OS
Release date
Current State
Nokia
N900
Maemo 5
2009
Discontinued
Nokia
N9
MeeGo 1.2 Harmattan
2011
Discontinued
OpenMoko
Neo (1973 & FreeRunner)
Openmoko Linux
2007/2008
Discontinued
Golden Delicious
GTA04
QTMoko
2012
Waiting for interest
Aava Mobile
Dev Phone
MeeGo
2011
Discontinued
Tizen Association
Dev Phone
Tizen
2013
Available
Jolla
Jolla
SailFish
2013
Available
ZTE
Open
Firefox OS
2013
Available
Alcatel
One Touch Fire
Firefox OS
2013
Available
Source: Wikipedia, http://bit.ly/OSMobilePhones *Does not include Android Phones / WebOS phones
Thank you
Appendix
Android “fragmentation” improving
Reprinted With Permission From OpenSignal, “Android Fragmentation Visualized”
Android Fragmentation 2013
Source: OpenSignal, “Android Fragmentation Visualized”
Wearables! What Is The Next Big Thing In Mobile? Wearables
22%
Connected Car
7%
Mobile Wallet
17%
Mobile Health
7%
Mobile Adver sing
7%
Distance Learning
4%
Indoor Loca on
2%
Everything As A Service
19%
Connected TV
9%
Other
6% 0%
5%
10%
15%
Source: Open Mobile Media, July 2013; n = 50+ Top-Level Mobile Execu ves A ending The Open Mobile Summit
20%
25%
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