Heuristics: Lupia

Political Psychology: Citizen Behaviors and Opinions

Lecture 5

Cognition 1: Three models of opinion formation

Program 

Citizens’ political information



The heuristics model



The online model



The belief-sampling model

Citizens’ political information

Lecture 5

Cognition 1: Three models of opinion formation

Theoretical starting point  Traditional

democratic theory asserts that a strong and healthy democracy requires an alert, attentive, informed, and reactive electorate.

Empirical reality 

Most citizens are generally little informed about politics.



However, they are not completely ignorant nor severely misinformed.

Debates in the literature 

The low level of information is undeniable.



Arguments rage over the capacity of citizens to develop quality opinions.

The heuristics model

Lecture 5

Cognition 1: Three models of opinion formation

The heuristics model 

Citizens use affective and cognitive shortcuts that allow them to simplify political choices and to develop reasonable opinions.



Shortcuts are efficient because they require little information and generate reliable solutions to complex dilemmas.

Heterogeneity 

The type of heuristics used varies by the level of political sophistication.



The reliance on affect is more likely among less sophisticated people.



The reliance on cognition is more likely among more sophisticated people.

Heterogeneity

Heuristics: Sniderman, Brody & Tetlock 

‘likability’



‘availability’



‘desert’

Heuristics: Lupia 

California, 1988



Referendum on the reform of the auto-insurance system



5 technical and complex proposals

Heuristics: Lupia 

Informational shortcut: People who know the identity of the referendum proposals’ sponsors should make the right choices.

Heuristics: Lupia

Weaknesses of the heuristics model

Lecture 5

Cognition 1: Three models of opinion formation

Do heuristics lead to the right choices? 

partisan labels



‘availability’ (SBT)



‘likability’ (SBT)



‘cue’ (Lupia)

Do heuristics lead to the right choices? Politics : requires responses to difficult questions,  does not make the relevant information easily accessible,  does not encourage reflection and deliberation,  and rarely offers feedback. 

Do heuristics lead to the right choices? Biases in political judgments :     

Reliance on stereotypes Excess of confidence Resistance to correction Influence of easy arguments Biased interpretation of messages

Biased interpretation of messages

Conclusion of Kuklinski and Quirk 

Citizens are not very informed, but they also tend to bias and errors when they use this little amount of information.

Conclusion of Kuklinski and Quirk 

Inferences based on long-term factors will tend to work well.



Inferences based on short-term factors will tend to be more problematic.

The online model

Lecture 5

Cognition 1: Three models of opinion formation

The online model 

When the goal is to form an impression, one evaluates information when it is encountered and integrates it into a rolling judgment.



The information that contributed to the judgment is quickly forgotten.



When an opinion is expressed, it is this judgment that is recalled.



The judgment is constantly updated.

The online model 

Experiment : – 2 fictitious candidates – Profile of their issue positions – Measures of impressions – Time delay – Measures of impressions & recall

The online model 

Results : – Failing recall of information – Recall of information degrades rapidly – Recall of impressions remains stable – Recall weakly related to impressions – Messages more related to impressions

The online model

The online model

The online model 

Criticisms : – Plausible? Convincing? – Existing impressions or reactions to party identification?

– What is the measure of messages? – Actual vote models versus authors’ views versus authors’ model?

The belief-sampling model

Lecture 5

Cognition 1: Three models of opinion formation

Observations  There

is a lot of instability in opinions over time.

 There

is a lot of instability in opinions related to variations in questionnaire construction.

 People

express opinions about fictional issues and fictional persons.

The belief-sampling model  Citizens

do not possess preexisting opinions.

 They

hold a mix of partially coherent considerations.

 When

asked, they survey a sample of the most salient considerations, and chose a response on the spot.

The belief-sampling model  Consideration

: reason to support one side of an issue

 Axiom

1 : ambivalence

 Axiom

2 : response

 Axiom

3 : accessibility

Results  Signs

of ambivalence among considerations (axiom 1).

 Correlation

between the balance of considerations and choice (axiom 2).

 More

interest and engagement leads to more accessible considerations (axiom 3).

Explanations of the observations 

Instability of opinions



Questionnaire effects



Opinions on fictional issues and fictional people

Implications  People

don’t have real opinions.

 Opinion

change is simply a modification of the mix of accessible considerations.

 Persuasion

comes from the manipulation of salient considerations.

Conclusion

Lecture 5

Cognition 1: Three models of opinion formation

Conclusion



Which model is right ... ?



Heterogeneity ... ?