Ken Eriksen
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The Rising Tide of Liquid Cargo on the Inland Waterways Supply and Demand Outlook for the Tank Barge Market Prepared for Ken Eriksen Senior Vice President May 1, 2014 St. Louis, MO @keriksen
Liquid Barge Commodities
2
New Found Oil Reserves Coming to the Surface A old technology brings gushing liquid gold
US Crude Oil Production 12,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
0
1970
Thousand Barrels per Day
10,000
3
New Found Oil Reserves Coming to the Surface – Shale Plays and Refineries
4
Liquid Tank Barge Commodity Volumes Historically chemical products and crude petroleum have been lower volume moves, but chemical has been longer distance while crude (and food and farm) shorter distance moves.
Distribution of Tons
Distribution of Ton-Miles
178.3 million tons
53.6 billion ton-miles
5
Liquid Commodity Movements – Surging Crude Petroleum Crude drives higher, others remain anemic.
Domestic Barge Traffic Tons Crude Petroleum
Petroleum & Coal Prod.
Chemical Prod.
Food & Farm Prod.
140
120
80
60
40
20
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
0
1990
Million Tons
100
Year
6
Going the Distance with Tank Movements Longer distances emerging for crude shipments while other liquid remain static.
Crude Petroleum
Petroleum & Coal Prod.
Chemical Prod.
Food & Farm Prod. 1,400
600
1,200
500
1,000
400
800
300
600
200
400
100
200
Year
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
0
1991
0
Average Miles Food & Farm Prod.
Tank 700
1990
Average Miles
Domestic Barge Traffic Average Miles Liquid
7
Liquid Commodity Movements – Surging Crude Petroleum Crude drives higher, other remain anemic.
Domestic Barge Traffic Tonmiles Crude Petroleum
Petroleum & Coal Prod.
Chemical Prod.
Food & Farm Prod.
40
35
25
20
15
10
5
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
0
1990
Billion Tonmiles
30
Year
8
Barge Supply and Demand
9
Liquid Tank Barge Fleet Expanding Shifting fleet profile, younger fleet emerging. Age Profile of 2013 Tank Barge Fleet
Composition of Tank Barge Fleet by Type 300
4,000
70% of the Fleet 25 yrs.
275
Small (10,000 bbl or less)
3,000
Independent & Specialty
2,500
2,000
1,500
SemiIntegrated (> 20,000 bbl)
1,000
Jumbo (10,001 to 20,000 bbl)
250
Number of Tank Barges
225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25
500
0
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
0
Year
1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Number Tank Barges by Type
3,500
44+43 42 41 40 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Informa Economics, Inc., Barge Fleet Profile
Age (Number of Years)
Informa Economics, Inc., Barge Fleet Profile
10
Liquid Tank Barge Fleet Pressure Indices Tonnage versus Ton-Miles? Fleet dynamics, capacity utilization tied to distances traveled. Tank Barge Utilization on Tonmile Basis
Tank Barge Utilization Tonnage
Tank Barge
Tonnage
Informa's Barge Pressure Index
140
140
120
120
Tank Barge
Informa's Barge Pressure Index
100
100
Index (1998 = 100)
60
40
60 40 20
20
0 0
-20
Year
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
-40
1987
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
-20
1987
Index (1998 = 100)
80 80
Year
11
Liquid Tank Barge Fleet to Expand Further to Keep Pressure Steady Annual Tank Barge New Builds and Retirements 300
4,200
New Builds Retirements Tank Fleet Size
2014F
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
0
1997
-300
1996
700
1995
-200
1994
1,400
1993
-100
1992
2,100
1991
0
1990
2,800
Size of Tank Fleet
3,500
100
1989
Number of Tank Barges
200
Informa Economics, Inc., Barge Fleet Profile
Year
12
The Rising Tide of Liquid Cargo on the Inland Waterways Supply and Demand Outlook for the Tank Barge Market Prepared for Ken Eriksen Senior Vice President May 1, 2014 St. Louis, MO @keriksen
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