Data Mining&Business Planning of Engineering/Research Projects
Presentation 1 Dr. Gábor Pauler, Associate Professor Faculty of Sciences, University of Pécs Tel:30/9015-488 E-mail:
[email protected]
Content of the Presentation Introduction CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: STEP Analysis Product idea: Miracle Roof roof space greenhouse SWOT Analysis Strengths Crop producing Less depressing cityline Recreational gardens Air filtering Cost effectiveness Weaknesses Technical weaknesses Usage weaknesses Business weaknesses Recreational/aestethical weaknesses Opportunities Advertisements Cooperation with safety film manufacturers Threatens Competition High development costs
Introduction: Describing Business Ideas
In the business planning process, the first major step is Describing your business ideas (Ötletleírás). This is also the most controversial step, because: Best entrepeneurs usually have very strong leading personality: They maniacly believe in their business ideas and push them through regardless their promises, family, friends, health, safety, wealth, lives spent („Never ask about my first million” /Rockefeller, Standard Oil/) But to survive long term, they should also feel some responsibility for their employees, community and environment (eg. Rockefeller Foundation) They usually do not finish university: the more educated you are, the more risks you can foresee and you opt for being an employee for small money Their drive is good when they fight obstacles, or stand up after bankruptcy But it is bad because they can make limited use of business planning: they will never invest money and effort into figuring out their idea may not work! If you are not a „natural born entrepeneur”: just a researcher, professional, etc. needs to develope business ideas and plans, it is still not an easy story: As you naturally would like your idea to succeed, you under your own pressure, and cannot evaluate your idea objectively If you ask your friends/team members to evaluate it, there can be a Groupthink-effect (Csoportnyomás-effektus) to distort objective evaluation You could ask non-committed experts to evaluate your idea, but there is a danger that they won’t examine it thoroughly, or will steal the idea In our CASE STUDY 1, we show two simple verbal techniques on a fictive product idea, which force you consider disadvantages and shortcomings also: Social, Traditional, Economic, Political (STEP) Analysis: How your product/service idea is related to the environment? Strenghts, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats (SWOT) Analysis: How your product/service idea works internally?
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: STEP Analysis 1 László Kovács, founder of Miracle Roof Ltd. (http://www.miracleroof.hu ), a small Hungarian family business in building carpentry industry was a small men with one big dream: To cover Budapest with „green top”, converting roofs of old buildings into his Miracle Roof. S:Social Environment (Társadalmi környezet): He spent his childhood in the downtown slum (Gettó) part of Budapest called Józsefváros, which mostly built at the end of 19th century. This part of the city is very common among most Central-European major cities: rapid industrialization in the era demanded constant inflow of poor, heavily overpopulated agricultural people in the industrial outskirts of large cities and become factory workers. T:Traditional background (Tradíciók): There was a relative lack of public green areas, and hevy air pollution of coal-based industrial environment turned these districts „black cities” being the nest of many ethnical, racial conflicts, revolts, deviant lifestyles, mental illnesses, alienation, crimes.
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: STEP Analysis 2 E:Economic conditions (Közgazdasági feltételek): Budget constraints of inhabitants resulted densely populated districts with poor quality-small apartment houses, underdeveloped road network and under-designed utility (Közmű) infrastructure. P:Political environment (Politikai környezet): In most of western part of Europe, post-industrial development after WWII reorganized these districts and made them more liveable. However in Central-Eastern Europe communist regimes in the Soviet era had not enough intention and resources to make the same reorganization, leaving back these slums in very bad condition, and reorganization could start only after fall of the communism in 1989-1990.
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: Product idea 1
László’s idea is connected with boosting reorganization process with utilizing building roofs (Tető) with the help of new materials and technologies: The tipical 4-5 story residential building of the 2nd half of 19th century in Central Europen cities built in large quantites was made from brick walls with limited use a of reinforced concrete (Vasbeton) structures. Roof construction was typically tiles (Cserép) on wooden carpentry (Ácsolat) work. In most of the buildings roof space was not utilized, because: Brick building material and masonry (Kőműves) workforce was relatively cheap that time Habitable roof construction required more skilled carpentry work and time to assemble Void roof space allowed allowed lighter and cheaper ceiling structure Miracle Roof is to turn these void roof spaces into crop-producing (Zöldségtermelő) or recreational (Rekreációs) greenhouses (Üvegház): Removing old tiles Repairing/replacing amortized elements of roof carpentry, and cover it with thick layer of UV- and humidity resistant coating (Felületkezelés) Laying high-tensile strength (Szakítószilárdság), UV-resistant, transparent safety film on carpentry instead of tiling, glued on carpentry structure with an UV-resistant adhesive (Ragasztó) Laying hard foam-based (Lépésálló műanyaghab) heat insulation (Szigetelés) and humidity insulation layers on ceiling (Plafon) Installing irrigation (Öntözés) and ventillation (Szellőzés) appliances used at greenhouses
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: Product idea 2
Installing soil (Termőföld) and plants in portable plastic soil boxes connected to irrigation/drain (Lefolyó) system: They can be placed on top of ceiling if it has the structural stenght for that. This way we can also get some recreational area between plant layer and roof sheeting (Tetőfedés)
Content of the Presentation Introduction CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: STEP Analysis Product idea: Miracle Roof roof space greenhouse SWOT Analysis Strengths Crop producing Less depressing cityline Recreational gardens Air filtering Cost effectiveness Weaknesses Technical weaknesses Usage weaknesses Business weaknesses Recreational/aestethical weaknesses Opportunities Advertisements Cooperation with safety film manufacturers Threatens Competition High development costs
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: SWOT Analysis 1
Alternatively, they can be hanged from rafters (Tetőgerenda), if ceiling is too weak: as safety film is uncomparably lighter (0.1-0.2kg/m2) than tiles (75-100kg/m2), original rafters in good condition could hold at least equally weighted soil boxes with soil, water and plants. In this case roof space is a service area for crop producing. Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities Threats (SWOT) Analysis (SWOT-elemzés): Strengths: The major outcome of the idea is producing crops, vegetables pretty close to the place of consumption utilizing solar energy and saving its transportation costs. Up to date, metabolism of plants is still the most effective (75-85%) known method to absorb radiation energy of sun even considering the latest solar panel technology
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: SWOT: Strengths 1 The second major outcome from the idea is less depressing view of slum districts at reduced cost In our first exaple, we replace roof tiling with film and dense utility crop producing system beneath that In our second example, we show a recreational garden with limited crop producing
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: SWOT: Strengths 2 In our third example, we show a childrens playground or kindergarden application, where children can avoid heavily polluted air and public safety issues of playing on the streets of a slum area
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: SWOT: Strengths 3 Moreover, according to recent innovations of Lane Environmental Plc., UK (http://www.laneenvironmental.co.uk/?id=5), layer of plant leaves and soil kept humid by trickle irrigation system (Csepegtető öntözés) can act as a very effective selfrenewable filter of polluted air intaking into the A/C system (Légkondícionálás) of the building, substituting expensive diposable air filters in A/C systems. Some plants are known (e.g. Thyrrea Varensis, etc.) secreting anti-bacterial agents on their leaves and roots, forming a natural defense line against the usual accumulating Legionella bacteria in condense water reservoirs of A/C systems, which can cause rapid and violent bacterial infection in senior people or people with degraded immune system because of other deseases. In traditional A/C systems defense against Legionella requires buying expensive antibacterial agents. Last but not least strength of the solution is cost effectiveness, which can be a major factor in reconstruction of slum areas: It does not impose any major structural change in the building, just renovation of roof carpentry structure into good condition High tensile safety film is easier to apply and requires less skill and training than tiling, as it can be rolled down continuosly in 1.8-2m wide rolls from the ridge (Tetőgerinc) on roof battens (Tetőléc) prepared with adhesive Besides the safety film, adhesive, and coating of roof carpentry, it does not require any special high-tech materials: ceiling heat/humidity insulation, greenhouse equipment ar all comercially available, well-proven technologies
Content of the Presentation Introduction CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: STEP Analysis Product idea: Miracle Roof roof space greenhouse SWOT Analysis Strengths Crop producing Less depressing cityline Recreational gardens Air filtering Cost effectiveness Weaknesses Technical weaknesses Usage weaknesses Business weaknesses Recreational/aestethical weaknesses Opportunities Advertisements Cooperation with safety film manufacturers Threatens Competition High development costs
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: SWOT: Weaknesses 1 For correct business planning, we have to collect internal weaknesses of the solution also: Technology weaknesses: Exposure on the rooftop is a harsh environment of any kind of technology: high level of radiation from the sun (increasing with global warming), corrosive effect humidity and acids from precipitation (Csapadék), highest daily difference in temperature, thermal expansion stresses static stress to hold thick layer of snow, expansion stresses of freezing water in small cavities dynamic stresses of windstorms (can be both pushing and lifting force depend ing on wind direction and strength), bursting power of ice particles, birds nest building activity, aggressive chemical agents from birds’ guano, insects attacking organic materials, errosive effect of dust traveling by high-speed wind. All these require chemically highly stable and strong materials, and it did not happen by chance that ceramic roof tiling holds its position in the last 3000 years, and – if assembled correctly – it can still beat up any high tech roofing solutions in endurance.
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: SWOT: Weaknesses 2 Miracle Roof can fail technologically at several points (in decreasing order of significance): High humidity plants and wood: wooden roof carpentry is not designed to maintain such a high level humidity as usual in a commercial cropproducing greenhouses. The optimal level of humidity for most plants destroys uncoated wooden surfaces very quickly. Therefore, wooden structure should be covered with thick layer of penetrative impregnation and coating, which fills cracks if the wood created by drying up live wood after cutting. The coating should be ellastic to follow static and dynamic torsion of wooden structure by snow/wind pressure and daily thermal expansion. Radiation of sun: as excellent radiation shield role of tiling is eliminated, the wood coating, the adhesive and safety film should resist UV-rays of the sun. Most organic material becomes rigid, fragile, full with micro-cracks when exposed UV-radiation for long time, as a result of cracking polimer macromolecular structure. Dust in wind: Dust is kept in constant moving by traffic in busy downtowns even in calm weather, but in strong wind, sharp quartz-micro particles of dust traveling with that has considerable scratching effect making safety film surface opaque limiting vision through and making it better target for agressive chemicals Air pressure in wind: Compared with roof tiling, safety film roof sheeting is an almost airtight layer. When strong wind blows across roof section air pressure decreases considerably, because of Bernoulli-effect (wind has to travel longer distance above roof, which increases speed and decreases pressure). While air pressure inside roof space stays normal, creating quite strong lifting effect on an airtight structure
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: SWOT: Weaknesses 3 Bellies in film sheeting under weight of snow: This is also a critical factor how much the safety film stretches under constant stress: no stretch at all would require infinite tensile strenght film and roof battens. So in the reality, the film forms small, chain-curve (Láncgörbe)-shaped bellies between the supporting roof battens under the weight of snow. Its up to the ellasticity of film to compensate this when the snow melted. large bellies are unaesthetic and water is captured there. The ideal material for film shrinks somewhat in raising temperature of spring to compensate bellies created in winter. Iron nails in roof battens: Protruding iron nails left in roof battens by ancient carpenters can damage film mechanically and contact with ironoxide in humid environment makes most polimer-based materials rigid and fragile, therefore surface of roof battens has to be faceted (Csiszol) before coating. Bursting power of ice particles: there are bulletproof safety films also, so current technology can contain the problem, but increased defence may increase costs Usage weaknesses of Miracle Roof: Lack of radiation/thermal insulation: Eliminating roof tiling makes necessary to install a thermal/water insulation layer on ceiling, increasing costs and increasing stress on ceiling structure, which may not designed for this, however modern hard foam-based insultaions have minimal weight. Continuos layer of plant leaves at utility greenhouses can have considerable radiation insulation effect, but density of leaves may vary by yearly lifecycle of plants. Also, layer of soil have considerable radiation insulation and some thermal insulation effect, but its highly depending on air/water content.
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: SWOT: Weaknesses 4 Greenhouse-effect: heat-trap property of greenhouses, which enables them for intensive crop producing can be very inconvenient for people living beneath that at top floors of the building without effective thermail/radiation insulation. However energy from greenhouse effect can be used to drive passive ventillation system reducing electricity consumption of traditional A/C. Lack of humidity buffering and vetillation: ceramic roof tile is porous (Porózus) material with considerable humidity buffering, equalizing humidity level in roof space. The airtight film itself has no any ventillation and humidity buffering. Without properly designed ventillation system, thick layer of green algae will accumulate on its internal surface like in aquariums. Business weaknesses: Internal logistics: However a crop producer may be appealed by eliminating transportation cost from distant agricultural area to downtown, there can be serious logistic disadvantages also: all equipment, soil and plants has to be carried up at 4-5th floor, harvested produce has to be carried down. This cannot be realistic without lift (preferably not passanger but cargo lift servicing roof space also). However in slum area, lifts may not always be installed or working properly. Fragmentation of planting: Another problem is that usable are of roof spaces are limited and gardeners have to work in numerous locations to maintain the same area as a large agricultural greenhouse.
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: SWOT: Weaknesses 5
Profit extraction: Producing plants is a low-tech, relatively lowinvestment way of utilizing solar energy, but profit extraction may depend on crop prices controlled by supply/demand. Extra supply of produce from rooftop greenhouses may reduce prices and profit extraction itself. You can compare this with producing electricity from solar energy, which requires bloody huge investment, but price of electric energy is constantly increasing and demand is almost unlimited at long term. Leisure/Aesthetical weaknesses: Considering that Miracle Roof can also be utilized as recreational graden, playground, kindergarden, etc. there are other difficulties: Habitable greenhouse requires considerable ventillation, and humidity level should be lower than optimal for intensive producing plants Internal structure of roof carpentry not designed to be habitable may prevent creating larger open spaces necessary for recreational activity: wind bracers (Szélmerevítő), hanging beams (Mestergerenda), props (Támoszlopok), neck collars (Kereszt gerenda) There are numerous vents in roof space disturbing habitability: Old brick chimneys (Kémény) may not be correctly insulated and release fume gases in roof space Sewer gas vents may spread disturbing odors, etc. Some of the targeted buildings are historic landmarks or located in landmark districts, which may prevent Miracle Roof conversion by regulations of local/governmental authorities
Content of the Presentation Introduction CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: STEP Analysis Product idea: Miracle Roof roof space greenhouse SWOT Analysis Strengths Crop producing Less depressing cityline Recreational gardens Air filtering Cost effectiveness Weaknesses Technical weaknesses Usage weaknesses Business weaknesses Recreational/aestethical weaknesses Opportunities Advertisements Cooperation with safety film manufacturers Threatens Competition High development costs
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: SWOT: Opportunities For correct business planning,we should consider external opportunities our product generates long term: Additional income could be generated with the rafterhanged soil boxes version if coloured flowers are planted in a pixel-matrix pattern to form ads on roof surface visible from street level This can be especially useful if architectural regulations by local authority forbid usage of large advertisement posters on buildings Our natural allies can be businesses in window safety film industry. For example: http://solargard.com/Residential/Products_Safety http://www.apexfilms.ca/glossary.htm http://www.shop4windowfilms.co.uk/ Window safety film is relatively expensive(50-100EUR/ m2) compared to other plastic foils, because it is an exclusive product applied on relatively small area of windows. Large scale use on rooftops would enable mass production, and considerable development cost of its material would be shared among lot more m2 sold, so cost could be lowered to the range of (2025EUR/m2), which is almost comparable with cost of good quality roof tiling (12-18EUR/m2)
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: SWOT: Threatens 1 Finally, we should consider external threatens: One good thing in business world is that you are NEVER alone. There is always some kind of competition. Even if someone invented an innovative product or design: In broader extent, you compete with all businesses in the are for buying power (Vásárlóerő) of the population. Talking about slum areas, pubs, illegal brandy distilleries and drog dealers are also competitors reducing already limited buying power Chinese will copy your product idea in 5 minutes There are partially competing products already on the market: Green-roof or bioroof systems are there since decades: http://www.greenroofs.com/projects/ pview.php?id=802 http://www.cefil.co.uk/ecoroof.html http://www.arch.mcgill.ca/prof/sijpkes /arch304/D+C2004website/Website2/roof-biodome.jpg http://www.wildcenter.org/index.php? sub=29 http://www.metrogreenbusiness.com/ news/qa.php/2008/12/21/p1671 http://web.mit.edu/12.000/www/m20 08/teams/lastortugas/v_housing.html http://www.re-nest.com/renest/gardening/bio-tray-module-forgreen-roofs-065730
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: SWOT: Threatens 2 Fortunately for us, there are some common disadvantages in external green roof applications: They can be applied on flat or moderately angled roofs, otherwise maintenance of plants becomes hazardous work requiring special skill and mountain climbing equipment However flatter roofs can be a problem on continental or colder climate, when thick layer of snow can accumulate on it and over-stress it. Roof sheeting has to be strong enough not just support insulations, soil and plants but personell and tools also All existing external green roof systems (lets see for example): http://www.ecogeek.org/content/view/902/ http://www.glwi.uwm.edu/research/genomics/ecoli/greenroof/benefits.php http://www.green-roofing.co.uk/index.php?module=system:3 http://www.richmondregional.org/Planning/Stormwater/green_roof.htm http://www.inhabitat.com/2006/05/16/green-rooftops-conference/ http://www.coolflatroof.com/green-roof.php http://energysmartideas.com/blog/category/alternative-building-materials/ http://www.heidler.com/GreenRoofing.aspx require complex and expensive layer structure - which is hard to apply on complex roof forms – created from: Structural support deck Water insulation Heat insulation Inpenetrable root barrier (most roots burst plastic foils with suprising force) Drainage layer Aeration lyer
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: SWOT: Threatens 3 Also, there are existing recreational public greenhouse structures, but these are usually highly complex and expensive systems made of steel/ glass/ reinforced concrete modules maintained by theme parks, zoo parks, shopping centers on high budget Mr. Kovács hopes to shoot out an uncovered market niche (Piaci rés) with Miracle Roof: being practically more usable that external green roofs, especially in the winter being much less expensive than professional greenhouses and still maintain recreational advantages in the middle of a highly polluted, crowded downtown area The second most serious threaten is whether commercial crop producers pick up the idea or totally reject it And last but not least, there is a threaten that development cost of the roof carpentry coating, and UV-resistant adhesive are very-very far from being covered from applying Miracle Roof in just one building. Thats why we have to estimate expected demand and make intensive business planning described in next session.
References Roof carpentry: http://www.builderbill-diy-help.com/roof.html Window safety films: http://solargard.com/Residential/Products_Safety http://www.apexfilms.ca/glossary.htm http://www.shop4windowfilms.co.uk/ Green roof systems: http://www.greenroofs.com/projects/pview.php?id=802 http://www.cefil.co.uk/ecoroof.html http://www.arch.mcgill.ca/prof/sijpkes/arch304/D+C2004website/Website2/roof-biodome.jpg http://www.wildcenter.org/index.php?sub=29 http://www.metrogreenbusiness.com/news/qa.php/2008/12/21/p1671 http://web.mit.edu/12.000/www/m2008/teams/lastortugas/v_housing.html http://www.re-nest.com/re-nest/gardening/bio-tray-module-for-green-roofs065730 http://www.ecogeek.org/content/view/902/ http://www.glwi.uwm.edu/research/genomics/ecoli/greenroof/benefits.php http://www.green-roofing.co.uk/index.php?module=system:3 http://www.richmondregional.org/Planning/Stormwater/green_roof.htm http://www.inhabitat.com/2006/05/16/green-rooftops-conference/ http://www.coolflatroof.com/green-roof.php http://energysmartideas.com/blog/category/alternative-building-materials/ http://www.heidler.com/GreenRoofing.aspx
