Quantifying Risk

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Define high, medium & low risk activities; Be aware of how the varying levels of risk affect the decisions we make at all of the various stages of our courses.

◦ E.g ratios, preparation, equipment, group management and other in-field decisions

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Level of risk based on potential or existing hazards that are:

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Subjective (internal or personal): fatigue, fitness, health, psychological well-being,

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Objective (external, environmental): terrain, weather, water conditions

Level of risk based on severity of these these hazards and likelihood of them occurring

Does the course fit in our program?  Will we do the course this year?  How will the course be organized this semester? (location, dates, expected # of students, assistants) 

 This month, what do we know about the prevailing conditions? (Snow pack, water levels)  This week, has anything changed?  Today, what is the status of the subjective or objective hazards?  In-field, what is happening?

Risk is quantified for insurance companies. What’s in it for us?  Help

us make yearly, monthly, weekly, daily decisions

Medium Risk (Mountain biking)

High Risk (Canoeing) 

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> 4 hrs from assistance

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Class 2+ water

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Winds > 20 knots

Water temp < 15 C

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Single track Rough trail surface Roots and boulders on trail

Low Risk (Hiking) 

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High fitness levels Good group dynamics Warm weather, no rain in forecast Flat terrain