Temperature - State Climate Office of North Carolina

BY: Grace Ownbey

Motivation  

Helps energy companies save $$$ To help consumers see if they are paying more money for the same amount of energy.

Research Questions 

How does climate effect trade?  How does temperature effect total energy consumption?



Hypothesis Temperature accounts for 70% of total energy

consumption.

Methods and Data 



Annual Average temperature, Cooling degree days, Heating degree days and Sum of degree days(NC State climate office) Set of total energy consumption data with smaller sub sets of data (State energy Data System) from NC ○ ESTCP- Electricity total consumption

RFTCP- Residual fuel oil total consumption, ○ NGRCP-Natural gas total consumption ○



Years 1960-2009



Compared the sets of data by finding the correlation between them and there detrended values

Background Information Cooling Degree days-CDD Heating Degree days-HDD

15000

Fitted total

fitted ESTCP kkwh

HDD

CDD

SADD

av temp

62

61 10000 60

59

5000

58

1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0

57

56 -5000 55

-10000

54

Key    

HDD= heating degree days CDD= cooling degree days SADD= sum of annual degree days AV temp= average temperature

 Fitted Total= normalized Energy

consumption  Fitted ESTCP KKWH= Electricity Total Consumption

Compared Data Correlation

62

Electricity total consumption

.51

60

Residual fuel oil total consumption Natural gas total consumption

-.20

58

Temperature

Temperature

temp

56

.29

1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

54

Cooling degree days Electricity total consumption

.38

Residual fuel oil total consumption Natural gas total consumption

-.19 .21

DEGREE DAYS 6000 4000 2000

HDD

-.13

CDD

2008

2005

2002

1999

1996

1993

1990

1987

1984

1981

1978

1975

1972

.06

1969

Residual fuel oil total consumption Natural gas total consumption

0

1966

-.32

1963

Electricity total consumption

1960

Heating degree days

SADD

20

Sum of annual degree days

15

-.14

Residual fuel oil total consumption Natural gas total consumption

-.04 -.03

RFTCP

5

NGRCP

0

Linear ESTCP

1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

Electricity total consumption

ESTCP

10

70000

Normalized total for the last 30 years Temperature

.06

Cooling degree days

.14

Heating degree days

.06

Sum of degree days

.13

60000

50000 Last 20 years 40000 Last 30 years Temperature

30000

Normalized total for the last 20 years

Cooling degree days 20000

Temperature

-.44

Cooling degree days

.09

Heating degree days

.59

Sum of degree days

.71

Heating degree days Sum of degree days

10000

2008

2004

2000

1996

1992

1988

1984

1980

1976

1972

1968

1964

1960

0

Discussion 

Temperature effects energy consumption by about 50%  The research rejected my hypothesized 70%

but supported the facet that it does have some affect 

Didn’t account for other ways of heating and power such as…    



propane solar power wood burning wind power

If theses were taken into account how much of a difference would it make?

Future Research How does temperature effect agricultural trade?  How do storms effect trade?  How does the effect of temperature on energy trade effect the price of energy?  How do natural disasters effect agricultural trade?  How do hurricanes effect the economy of the places they hit?  How does climate effect energy trade?  How does climate effect energy consumption? 

Approach 

Total energy consumption and temperature correlated over 50, 30, and then 20 years  There seemed to be more of a pattern

during the last 30 years and the correlations for the most part increased  Since the 30 year period increased the correlations, I correlated the 20 year period

Results  

The research rejected my hypothesized 70% but supported the facet that it does have some affect Temperature effects energy consumption by about 50% 15000

Fitted total

fitted ESTCP kkwh

HDD

CDD

SADD

av temp

Last 20 years

Last 30 years

4000

2000 10000 0 5000

0

-2000

-4000

-6000 -5000 -8000

-10000

-10000