Tracking Structural Development Processes through the Inter

Tracking Structural Development Processes through the Inter-group Cohesion Index John Cameron & Yih Lerh Huang ISS

“All happy families are alike; each unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.” – Tolstoy, in Anna Karenina

What is Social Cohesion? “the ongoing process of developing a community of shared values, shared challenges and equal opportunity within Canada, based on a sense of trust, hope and reciprocity among all Canadians” Policy Research Sub-Committee on Social Cohesion (Canada)

“a set of social processes that help instil in individuals the sense of belonging to the same community and the feeling that they are recognised as members of that community” Commissariat Général du Plan (France)

Multi-dimensional

Belonging Inclusion Participation Recognition Legitimacy

Isolation Exclusion Non-involvement Rejection Illegitimacy Jenson (1998)

Equality

Inequality Rajulton et al. (2007)

Common values Social order Social solidarity Social networks Place attachment

Civic culture Social control Wealth disparities Social capital Identity

Kearns and Forrest (2000)

The ISS Inter-group Cohesion Index measures “the extent to which there is social cohesion between defined religious, ethnic, and linguistic groups, without degeneration into civil unrest or inter-group violence” Indices of Social Development: Project Overview (2011)

Indicators: • Violent Demonstration • Deaths in Conflict • Inter-group Grievances • Civil Disorder • Internal Conflict • Terrorism Risk • Minority Rebellion Score • Log assassinations per log capita • Log guerrilla acts per log capita • Log riots per log capita • Terrorism • Log terrorist acts per log capita

Only countries with complete data sets are presented (n=96)

Inter-group Cohesion Index Summary

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Obs 106 103 116 158 158

Mean .5899623 .6572793 .5996492 .6093794 .5528531

Std. Dev. .1009363 .0919776 .1341715 .0760247 .0854517

Min .0000000 .3840644 .2491713 .3515432 .0800696

Max .7447424 .8023122 .8744453 .7420220 .7008806

Includes all countries with a score for that chronological data-point

ISDs Mean Scores Weighted by Country Population, 1990-2010

Only countries with complete data sets are presented (n=96)

Adverse events and the onset and depth of declines

• 1997 Asian Financial Crisis • Post-9/11 • ‘War on Terror’

Low Income Group

Peaked around 1995

Peaked around 2000

Lower Middle Income Group

Peaked around 1995

Peaked around 2000

Upper Middle Income Group

Peaked around 1995

Peaked around 2000

High Income Group

Peaked around 1995

Peaked around 2000

10 Year Change

cohesion Index

Peaked ~ 1995

Peaked ~ 2000

Mann-Whiney test

-0.079

-0.140

p