VOTER TURNOUT in the 2012 Election Presented by
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TODAY’S PRESENTERS
Julian Johannesen Sophie Lehman Director of Research and Training Communications Director Nonprofit VOTE Nonprofit VOTE
Who
http://www.nonprofitvote.org/voter-turnout.html
AGENDA
Measuring Voter Turnout
Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections
The Swing State and Election Day Registration Effects
The Youth Vote
The Latino Vote
Gaps in Voter Turnout by Demographic
Improving Voting and Elections
Agenda
MEASURING VOTER TURNOUT • Common Measurements • •
As a % of Registered Voters As a % of Eligible Voters
• Voter Turnout • Highest Office and Total Turnout
• Voting Eligible Population • 18 and over, citizen, exoffender
Measuring Voter Turnout
TURNOUT DEMOGRAPHICS • What is the National Election Exit Poll? • What does the NEEP report? – Share of the vote by demographics – Issue preferences – Partisan choice
• The Census’ Current Population Survey Voting Measuring and Registration Supplement – Voter turnout estimates by demographic – Available in the spring after the election
Voter Turnout
http://www.cnn.com/election/2 012/results/race/president
http://elections.nytimes.com/2 012/results/president/exit-polls
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/socdemo/voting/
VOTER TURNOUT IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
VOTER TURNOUT IN 2012 • 58.7% of voting eligible citizens turned out to vote in the 2012 presidential election, about 130.3 million voters • Turnout was dragged down by low turnout in the large states like California, New York, and Texas
Voter Turnout 2012
THE VOTER TURNOUT TREND
HIGH TURNOUT STATES
FACTORS AFFECTING TURNOUT Many factors affect state turnout, e.g. whether there are other competitive races on the ballot or a controversial ballot measure – and the mobilization that goes with that. But the two strongest predictors of state voter turnout are: 1) Whether a state is a swing state 2) Whether a state has Election Day registration
Voter Turnout 2012
SWING STATES AND ELECTION DAY REGISTRATION
SWING STATES • What is a “Swing State?” • Turnout in the 10 swing states was 65.2%, 7.2 points higher than in nonswing states, which had an average turnout of 58%. • Five of the ten states with the highest turnout in 2012 were swing states
Swing and EDR
SWING STATES AND SPENDING
Swing and EDR Source: Washington Post Online, “Mad Money: TV ads in the 2012 presidential campaign”
ELECTION DAY REGISTRATION • What is “Election Day registration?” • In 2012, states with Election Day registration had average turnout of 71.3%, 12.5 points higher than the turnout in states without EDR. Those states had an average turnout rate of 58.8%. • Five of the ten states with the highest turnout in 2012 have some form of Election Day registration. Swing and EDR
ELECTION DAY REGISTRATION
YOUTH VOTE AND LATINO VOTE
YOUTH VOTE • Young voters increased their share of the electorate by one point, from 18% in 2008 to 19% in 2012 • The youth vote was a determining factor in four swing states. • Youth turnout was especially high in swing states – an estimated 58%, compared to just 47% in non-swing states. • Young voters were the most racially and ethnically diverse segment of the electorate.
Youth and Latino
YOUTH VOTE
LATINO VOTE & THE RISING ELECTORATE • In 2012, the Latino share of the vote rose to 10%. • Latino turnout is estimated at 53%, that’s six points below the national average. Roughly 12.5 million Latinos voted out of a voting eligible population of about 23.7 million. • Latino voters are a crucial voting bloc in many states, including swing states like Colorado, Florida, and Nevada. In Colorado the Latino share of Youth and Latino the vote was 14%, in Florida 17%, and in Nevada 18%, all higher than in 2008
LATINO VOTE & THE RISING ELECTORATE
Youth and Latino
OTHER NOTABLE TRENDS • The African American vote held steady at 13% of the electorate and may have surpassed the white vote in percent turnout • API share of vote grew to 3%. With a 47% partisan gap favoring Obama over Romney • Early voting continued to rise but more slowly. 35% voted early. Youth and Latino
VOTER TURNOUT GAPS
VOTER TURNOUT GAPS
Gaps
IMPROVING VOTING AND ELECTIONS
VOTER REGISTRATION MODERNIZATION • Online, paperless voter registration • Election Day Registration or sameday registration during early voting periods Registration Modernization
VOTER REGISTRATION MODERNIZATION • Pre-registration for young people • Active voter registration
Registration Modernization
[email protected] 617.357.VOTE (8683) www.nonprofitvote.org
Nonprofit VOTE 89 South Street Suite 203 Boston, MA 02111 Sophie Lehman
[email protected] Julian Johannesen
[email protected]
